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Labour Slip to 4th, Tories 3rd
Comments
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I just can't see that Tories would be dumb enough to vote UKIP to gain Labour in a General Election. It's a pretty easy sell to the public: do you want a mildly Euroskeptic Government or a heavily pro-EU one? You ain't gonna get a leave the EU Government.
Surely all that happens as different parties gain support is that the middle ground moves. Many of the centrist policies in the UK would be considered to be very right wing in much of Europe and very left wing in the USA and Australia. The Centre is just the political median.
On the face of it, if the Tories promised to do enough of the things UKIP promised they'd have romped home yesterday with 50+% of the vote. Clearly that's not going to happen when you have an unpopular Government. This is a protest; no more, no less.
What it does do is strengthen the anti-EU part of the Tory party. It is often claimed that they're the Right but I have my doubts that they're synonymous. I usually think that the Right of the Tories are the old people and the small businessmen but perhaps that's just prejudice.
Cameron is between a rock and a hard place. He can take UKIP out by adopting their policies which will make them unelectable outside of the Tory heartlands. This was about the 16th most winnable Tory seat remember. Or Cameron can move to the centre and lose his party to UKIP. The right is divided now like the left were 25 years ago.
UKIP does not need to win a seat. If it takes 10% of the vote in Cameron's top 50 winable seats then Cameron can retire.
The right of the Tory Party are what they have always been, those who are doing OK personally and who do not care about anyone but those in a similar position I know many small businesssmen who would not identify with that community and are quite pro-EU.
If Lib Dems cannot hold a safe LibDem seat when the Tories are so divided Labour only needs to sit back and watch in this type of constituency.Their candidate might be called a celebrity but most people have not heard of him. OK CLegg did win this one but only just.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Not really. It was held by Chris Huhne and is now held by Mike Thornton.
The BBC website might say 'Lib Dem' hold but that isn't true. The individual has the seat not the party. If Mikey boy decides to join the BNP or Labour then the seat moves with him.
If you're using that definition then the ruling party have won far more than 4 or 5 of the last 400 (485) by elections
Murphy was an optimist!!!0 -
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The right of the Tory Party are what they have always been, those who are doing OK personally and who do not care about anyone but those in a similar position I know many small businesssmen who would not identify with that community and are quite pro-EU.
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Still peddling the same old class warrior nonsense.
According to today's research ( http://order-order.com/2013/03/01/voters-jump-from-main-three-to-ukip/ ) the breakdown of UKIP (Gasp! Shock! Horror! Vile, right wing baby-eaters!) from the other three packs of clowns was:
Tory 22 per cent
Lib Dems 19 per cent
Labour 17 per cent
Of course, what is really interesting is the cognitive dissonance that must have taken place in the "minds" of Lib Dumbs, who previously voted for a party best described as Europhiliac, then switching to a party that would like to see the EU put to the sword.
Still, no one ever expected reason from a Lib Dem voter.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »She's Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury!
I've seen some ducks out of water over the years. This one should be shot.
I suspect she is one of those clever people who is far better suited to doing things in the background than leading from the front. She is an economist, but a very surprising choice for QT, maybe she was a late replacement!
Actually she is Shadow Leader of the House, Rachel Reeves is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, a much more effective performer.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
She is an economist,
Another all theory and no practical work experience I suspect.
Ah yes.
"degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics "
No wonder this country's derailed. As this current crop appear to have no clue how to cope with a fiscal situation that wasn't covered in their text books.0 -
Still peddling the same old class warrior nonsense.
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Nothing to do with class. Anyone can be selfish, its a classless concept
Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Cameron is between a rock and a hard place. He can take UKIP out by adopting their policies which will make them unelectable outside of the Tory heartlands. This was about the 16th most winnable Tory seat remember. Or Cameron can move to the centre and lose his party to UKIP. The right is divided now like the left were 25 years ago.
UKIP does not need to win a seat. If it takes 10% of the vote in Cameron's top 50 winable seats then Cameron can retire.
The right of the Tory Party are what they have always been, those who are doing OK personally and who do not care about anyone but those in a similar position I know many small businesssmen who would not identify with that community and are quite pro-EU.
If Lib Dems cannot hold a safe LibDem seat when the Tories are so divided Labour only needs to sit back and watch in this type of constituency.Their candidate might be called a celebrity but most people have not heard of him. OK CLegg did win this one but only just.
You are assuming that UKIP only take votes off the Tories. That's not correct as has been shown.0
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