Labour Slip to 4th, Tories 3rd

ILW

One of the commentators was saying this morning that only about 10% of people polled said Europe was an issue, whilst around 50% said immigration was. I would have thought that the two were very closely linked.

Generali

Wookster wrote: »

Gen, I agree with a lot of what you say but I don't think you can really say that Tories aren't daft enough to vote UKIP to get a Labour government. Look at the fallout from same sex marriages - loads of folks have left the Tories to join UKIP. For a libertarian like me this speaks volumes! I don't like the internal bickering over this one little bit.

Also I'd have thought that the right are also the more socially conservative folks - and that is what is really toxic for the Conservatives. I would like to see socially liberal folks combined with economic Conservatists and they seem to be a dying breed!

This week did a small piece on this and McNeil asked an interviewee why the Conservatives have always come out on the wrong side of social changes (e.g. the death penalty, women voting, same sex marriage etc).

What you say is right enough but Labour (AFAIK) aren't going to get rid of gay marriage so if that's the big driver then UKIP aren't going to help unless they have a critical mass.

I have great ambition for Gen Y that they will be very socially libertarian. They really, as a stereotype, don't care about anything outside their own life. They really don't seem to be censorious.

michaels

Wookster wrote: »

This week did a small piece on this and McNeil asked an interviewee why the conservatives have always come out on the wrong side of social changes (e.g. the death penalty, women voting, same sex marriage etc).

Could the clue be in the question?!

michaels

Generali wrote: »

I have great ambition for Gen Y that they will be very socially libertarian. They really, as a stereotype, don't care about anything outside their own life. They really don't seem to be censorious.

I am worried that anti-immigrant (or indeed 'we don't like them cos they are 'different from us') remains a very strong political force in all generations amongst those who perceive themselves not to be amongst 'societies winners' and that UKIP have managed to present themselves as a party that believes this but that it is not poisonous to admit to supporting (unlike EDL and BNP).

Kennyboy66

Generali wrote: »

It also might mean that UKIP isn't just going to take votes off the Tories. IIRC, Labour stood on anti-EU platforms until the mid-80s.

Eh ?

The UK applied for membership in both 1967 & 1969 under Labour (and blocked by France).

It was only in 1983 that they stood on a anti EU policy - but the "longest suicide note in history" had all sorts of mad cap policies.

Labour was utterly divided on Europe between 1977 and 1983, and this was instrumental in why the SDP formed - ranging from the far left rejecting europe to the most pro-european such as Roy Jenkins.

The lesson should perhaps be for the Tories to wonder why the can't win a majority after the biggest economic crisis for a generation. They are still hopelessly divisive on Europe.

The Tories need to win Eastleigh to get a majority. Labour don't.

As far as UKIP go, POPULUS reckoned that 1/3 of their votes were normal Tory voters, but 1/4 hadn't voted at previous elections.

It's completely naive to think that if UKIP disappeared that all those votes would turn blue.

It would have been interesting if Nigel Farage had stood, as I suspect he is the least disliked of any of the leaders and does come across as a sort of right wing Ken Clarke (avuncular bearer of common sense).

I'm sure UKIP will perform really well at the next European elections in 2014, but will struggle to get near to a seat in Westminster.

Generali

A genuinely interesting piece of analysis IMO:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2013/mar/01/10-things-we-ve-learned-from-the-eastleigh-byelection

Generali

Kennyboy66 wrote: »

The lesson should perhaps be for the Tories to wonder why the can't win a majority after the biggest economic crisis for a generation.

That bit is easy to answer: Labour have constructed a client state in a similar way to Italy or France.

It is no longer possible to stand against welfarism as almost everyone is a welfare recipient.

It'll bankrupt you all in the end.

seven-day-weekend

Generali wrote: »

It's an interesting one.

People 'don't vote' for parties like UKIP, the BNP, Lib Dems because they have 'no chance' of winning. If UKIP can start getting a lot of big 2nd places then perhaps they can make a breakthrough.

I listened to the result at work on the BBC website and Farrage was claiming that UKIP are getting a lot of people out to vote that don't normally vote as now they have a party they can support. I have no idea if it's true but it's an interesting idea.

It also might mean that UKIP isn't just going to take votes off the Tories. IIRC, Labour stood on anti-EU platforms until the mid-80s.

I think Farage is right in some ways. For example, UKIP is the only party that is concerned about uncontrolled mass immigration, an issue which many people care about. These people may feel they have found a 'home' within UKIP and will turn out to vote for them, whereas they might not feel the other parties represent their interests.

dryhat

As our democracy is nothing more than a political reality show, this result is totally irrelevant.

Our political system and our economy has long been hijacked by the banking cartel and it is their interests which will be served by the politicians, not the interests of those who elect them.

Kennyboy66

Generali wrote: »

That bit is easy to answer: Labour have constructed a client state in a similar way to Italy or France.

It is no longer possible to stand against welfarism as almost everyone is a welfare recipient.

It'll bankrupt you all in the end.

Surely the largest "client state" is the 9.5 million pensioners in the UK

If you overlay a map of places with 20-30% of people over 65

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2174617/Pensioner-boom-Census-figures-reveal-aged-65.html

You would find it is almost entirely Tory or Liberal.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/2432632/UK-General-Election-2010-political-map.html

Hardly a gerrymandering success story.