Labour Slip to 4th, Tories 3rd

Wookster

michaels wrote: »

It is a funny old world in democracy, the more votes UKIP get the more likely we are to end up integrated in to Europe by Labour after the next election.

That's the law of unintended consequences

Wookster

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Turnout down to 52.7%.

Apathy towards political parties is hitting all time low.

Hardly unexpected after another poor Question Time last night.

The quality of political people is dire.

Angela Eagle is particularly dim. Some might even say a little bit special.

michaels

Wookster wrote: »

That's the law of unintended consequences

Remeber during the Greek election process how we were told that the parties that backed default were all neo-nazis...I wonder if there will be subtle encouragement given to UKIP by the EU - may be some policies that seem both silly and far outside of their competence being proposed by the EU parliament in the run up to the next general election, anyhting to allow UKIP to gain lots of publicity and strengthen the appeal of anti-EU parties with the intention of ensuring no Tory administration and thus no referendum?!

chucky

ukcarper wrote: »

The actual numbers make interesting reading

2010, 2013

LibDem 24,966, 13,342

Tory 21,102 10,559

UKIP 1,933 11,571

Labour 5,153 4,088

Others 496 2,056

Turn out 53,650 41,616

That's a lot of votes he Conservatives have lost. That doesn't make great reading for them.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Agree with Wookster, this is definitely a great result for Labour. Tories have lost twice, once in thinking the 'soft' lib dem vote would let them win more seats and again in thinking that the far right would not desert them because that would only benefit parties that they support even less than the Tories - after all if 1000 of the UK voters had plumped for the Tories instead they would have secured a anti-eu MP whereas the vote for UKIP ensured they ended up with an MP belonging to the most pro-european of parties.

And as Wookster says - if the Tories need to move away from the centre to cover UKIP they throw away enough votes in the centre to ensure that they can not beat labour.

It is a funny old world in democracy, the more votes UKIP get the more likely we are to end up integrated in to Europe by Labour after the next election.

I just can't see that Tories would be dumb enough to vote UKIP to gain Labour in a General Election. It's a pretty easy sell to the public: do you want a mildly Euroskeptic Government or a heavily pro-EU one? You ain't gonna get a leave the EU Government.

Surely all that happens as different parties gain support is that the middle ground moves. Many of the centrist policies in the UK would be considered to be very right wing in much of Europe and very left wing in the USA and Australia. The Centre is just the political median.

On the face of it, if the Tories promised to do enough of the things UKIP promised they'd have romped home yesterday with 50+% of the vote. Clearly that's not going to happen when you have an unpopular Government. This is a protest; no more, no less.

What it does do is strengthen the anti-EU part of the Tory party. It is often claimed that they're the Right but I have my doubts that they're synonymous. I usually think that the Right of the Tories are the old people and the small businessmen but perhaps that's just prejudice.

Sampong

Generali wrote: »

This is a protest; no more, no less.

You can't make that statement as if it is set in stone.

UKIP are gaining because all of the other parties are out of touch with the Public. Lib Dems have only won marginally in a traditional Lib Dem stronghold - they are about 25% down on where they were last year.

Only 52% of voters turned out at this election. People have lost faith in Politics. If there was a bigger turn out then the main parties would be in serious trouble - I believe.

spacey2012

Generali wrote: »

It's an interesting one.

People 'don't vote' for parties like UKIP, the BNP, Lib Dems because they have 'no chance' of winning. If UKIP can start getting a lot of big 2nd places then perhaps they can make a breakthrough.

I listened to the result at work on the BBC website and Farrage was claiming that UKIP are getting a lot of people out to vote that don't normally vote as now they have a party they can support. I have no idea if it's true but it's an interesting idea.

It also might mean that UKIP isn't just going to take votes off the Tories. IIRC, Labour stood on anti-EU platforms until the mid-80s.

I think the fact that the BNP can not even find a candidate in such an important flagship election where even cranks are standing in abundance shows us the they are "Out of the game".
Not even worthy of a mention.

Generali

Sampong wrote: »

You can't make that statement as if it is set in stone.

Yes I can!

Look at the last 100+ years of British politics and there have really been just 2 shifts; the death of Liberalism and the death of Trade Unionist Socialism.

A single issue party is not going to overturn the established order. It really is that simple.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

I wonder if any Tories are regretting their stance against AV, and blocking the LibDems on Lords reform and therefore losing the argument against boundary changes?

I can see generic protest voters deserting LibDems for UKIP, but not disaffected lefty handwringers.

Apparently this was a by-election fought almost solely on local issues- no doubt puzzling for Westminster hacks who think people discuss the signifiance of "One Nation Labour" at the village pub. The LibDem winner seems like a solid, reliable local chap- good luck to him.

Wookster

Generali wrote: »

I just can't see that Tories would be dumb enough to vote UKIP to gain Labour in a General Election. It's a pretty easy sell to the public: do you want a mildly Euroskeptic Government or a heavily pro-EU one? You ain't gonna get a leave the EU Government.

Surely all that happens as different parties gain support is that the middle ground moves. Many of the centrist policies in the UK would be considered to be very right wing in much of Europe and very left wing in the USA and Australia. The Centre is just the political median.

On the face of it, if the Tories promised to do enough of the things UKIP promised they'd have romped home yesterday with 50+% of the vote. Clearly that's not going to happen when you have an unpopular Government. This is a protest; no more, no less.

What it does do is strengthen the anti-EU part of the Tory party. It is often claimed that they're the Right but I have my doubts that they're synonymous. I usually think that the Right of the Tories are the old people and the small businessmen but perhaps that's just prejudice.

Gen, I agree with a lot of what you say but I don't think you can really say that Tories aren't daft enough to vote UKIP to get a Labour government. Look at the fallout from same sex marriages - loads of folks have left the Tories to join UKIP. For a libertarian like me this speaks volumes! I don't like the internal bickering over this one little bit.

Also I'd have thought that the right are also the more socially conservative folks - and that is what is really toxic for the Conservatives. I would like to see socially liberal folks combined with economic Conservatists and they seem to be a dying breed!

This week did a small piece on this and McNeil asked an interviewee why the Conservatives have always come out on the wrong side of social changes (e.g. the death penalty, women voting, same sex marriage etc).