Who will win the USA election?

vivatifosi

vivatifosi wrote: »

A friend of mine is a life long Democrat. However she is also a member of the Republican Party because it gives her the right to vote for a more moderate candidate in the primaries. I'm sure she's not alone in that.

A._Badger wrote: »

I'm sure she isn't.

One of the traps that lies in wait of British pundits commenting on the US is that although things may sound the same, they don't necessarily mean the same. It's the political version of the sidewalk/pavement confusion.

Party affiliation is just one of them.

Of course, the converse is true, too. But it's worth considering that however poorly informed American commenters can sound when they pontificate about the UK - we can appear every bit as banal, when the positions are reversed.

Sorry Badger, have only just caught your post hence quoting the original above it.

In terms of my friend, the state she lives in is one that has an early Primary so it is one where these things matter. You have to be a member of the party in order to vote. AIUI this tactic does not work in states with a caucasus instead due to the nature of the voting. I know she is a democrat though because she does a lot of work to aid voter turnout when the actual election comes round and last round received a personal phone call from Biden to thank her for her work in getting people out to vote. She tends to vote for candidates like Guiliani who are more centrist. Ironically this time round I think she chose Romney.

FTBFun

jackieb wrote: »

Has anyone been watching the Daily Show with Jon Stewart lately? He's been brilliant.

I saw the "global edition" (effectively a round up from last week) on comedy central.

There was an excellent segment pointing out the idiocy of the Republican view on abortion - effectively the support for "personal freedoms", bar the right for a woman to choose what to with her uterus.

Stewart also had a good rant about the main problems not being about economic problems, but whether "two dudes want to get married".

Anton123

vivatifosi wrote: »

I don't think you can talk about Hispanics as a homogeneous group. The big issue with illegals is largely from central America and in particular Mexico. The same cannot be said of Puerto Rico, which is almost a 51st state in terms of rights for its citizens, or Cubans, who have a complex relationship with their country of origin and a great number vote Republican.

You are correct in saying Hispanics are quite a varied group, but Mexicans make up around 65% of them in America. Also, I really can't see how conservative values in America appealing to Puerto Ricans. I really do expect 65% or more of Hispanic votes going Obama's way. The only Hispanic group that overwhlmingly vote the Republicans is the Cuban, but they number less than 2 million.

jackieb

FTBFun wrote: »

I saw the "global edition" (effectively a round up from last week) on comedy central.

There was an excellent segment pointing out the idiocy of the Republican view on abortion - effectively the support for "personal freedoms", bar the right for a woman to choose what to with her uterus.

Stewart also had a good rant about the main problems not being about economic problems, but whether "two dudes want to get married".

Have you watched the Clint Eastwood episode yet?

FTBFun

jackieb wrote: »

Have you watched the Clint Eastwood episode yet?

Afraid I haven't - will take a look at the website later.

Gracchus_Babeuf

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

Only 2 months left. Is it Obama? Or is it "Mitt the Morman"?

I know it will be whichever of the two says "I believe in America" the most, and who puts on the sincerest voice when saying "I want to make America great for our children. And our children's children." But have a go.

Romney will win for sure, but nothing will change. Americans are a fickle people, easily impressed by gloss and razzmatazz.

Anyway, who cares?

Anton123

Gracchus_Babeuf wrote: »

Romney will win for sure, but nothing will change. Americans are a fickle people, easily impressed by gloss and razzmatazz.

Anyway, who cares?

I agree. That's why you can have guys like Arnie becoming governor of California.

Anyway, I disagree about Romney. I don't think he has a chance unless something drastic goes wrong in the economy or the country's security between now and then.

Political parties do not really make a difference to the individual. Does anyone in the UK care whether we are governed by the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberals, or whatever else. I did not vote the last two elections and don't think ever will. As long as there are no upheavals, I just couldn't care who rules.

purch

vivatifosi wrote: »

In terms of my friend, the state she lives in is one that has an early Primary so it is one where these things matter. You have to be a member of the party in order to vote.

Americans can and do become members of both main parties. I know/knew numerous people who were, and who voted in primaries for both parties.

The manager of my business in the U.S. predicted that Bush would win in 2000 by a very close margin due to the abortion debate. She herself was a Democrat but struggled with the issue, which Bush had decided to make a big part of the campaign.

She also predicts Romney will win this year BTW, which is the reason for my vote.

P.S. I shook hands with Al Gore during the run up to the election. He held a last minute rally in Gaslight Square in Tampa, and we were within the exclusion perimeter his Secret Service goons set up. After the rally he and his entourage came in, and bought a drink, apologised for the upheaval, and used the facilities. (I hope he washed his hands :eek:)

purch

vivatifosi wrote: »

A friend of mine is a life long Democrat. However she is also a member of the Republican Party because it gives her the right to vote for a more moderate candidate in the primaries. I'm sure she's not alone in that.

We had a customer, I think his name was Randy (in all my years in the US I always seemed to be the only person who laughed when someone said their name is Randy, or BJ :eek:). He was an identikit young Republican, always short back and sides, wore a suit with a small stars and stripes pin on the lapel.

I remember him telling me one day (much to his amusement) how he had voted for Bill Bradley in the Democratic primary.

Gracchus_Babeuf

Anton123 wrote: »

I agree. That's why you can have guys like Arnie becoming governor of California.

Anyway, I disagree about Romney. I don't think he has a chance unless something drastic goes wrong in the economy or the country's security between now and then.

Political parties do not really make a difference to the individual. Does anyone in the UK care whether we are governed by the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberals, or whatever else. I did not vote the last two elections and don't think ever will. As long as there are no upheavals, I just couldn't care who rules.

I find American politics intensely boring. It's all about two parties with pretty identical views on the economy and some slight differences on social policy. Imagine Britain without Labour and only Lib Dems and Tories. Yawn.