Britain's Double-Dip Recession 'over And Recovery On The Way' - Item Club

shortchanged_2

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Have they released something else today then? That doesn't sound likely but I wouldn't make a fool of myself by declaring it couldn't possibly happen.

Try reading the article joeskeppi. They downgraded their growth forecast for 2012 from 0.4% to 0%. Optimistic I know.

Well seeing as we are already -1% for the first half of this year that means the UK economy needs to grow by 1% for the second half of the year to hit their downgraded 0% growth forecast for 2012.

luvpump

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Pretty silly.

Almost as silly as the 7 twits that thanked his post!

Ive just "Thanked" Graham, so make that 8 .

System

shortchanged wrote: »

Try reading the article joeskeppi. They downgraded their growth forecast for 2012 from 0.4% to 0%. Optimistic I know.

Well seeing as we are already -1% for the first half of this year that means the UK economy needs to grow by 1% for the second half of the year to hit their downgraded 0% growth forecast for 2012.

Ok, so like I said, it's unlikely but not beyond the realms of possibility, I wouldn't blaze in 6 months prior to the event and declare it's not going to happen.

(Unless I'd misread the OP and didn't want to look like a simpleton)

RenovationMan

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Ok, so like I said, it's unlikely but not beyond the realms of possibility, I wouldn't blaze in 6 months prior to the event and declare it's not going to happen.

(Unless I'd misread the OP and didn't want to look like a simpleton)

Well done for not allowing Graham and now his 'bear gang' mates to try and sidetrack us away from Graham's glaring error. The hilarity isn't about ITEM group's predictions, it's about Graham's 'forumnomics' and no amount of slieght of hand will make us forget that. :rotfl:

System

It also says it will "return to growth". Although their final number may be wrong based on the -0.7 being worse than anyone imagined, 0.1% in Q4 means they were right about growth returning to the economy by the end of the year.

homelessskilledworker

By far the biggest story today is the awful news that the UK is still in recession and growth is far worse than most imagined.
Yet half a dozen 24/7 regulars have chosen to whittle on about how someone misread/did not read properly an obscure post, and have now cluttered this forum with a dozen comments on the subject

Just a note for some on here, it is not the fault the bear posters were right about GDP and the poor state of the economy.

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Ok, so like I said, it's unlikely but not beyond the realms of possibility, I wouldn't blaze in 6 months prior to the event and declare it's not going to happen.

(Unless I'd misread the OP and didn't want to look like a simpleton)

I would. I have courage in my convictions.

thor

Is there any reason we should care about the 'item club' predictions? Are they anymore accurate than the predictions of other(fake science) economists? They are forever upgrading or downgrading their forecasts which makes me think they are just a bunch of b*llsh*tters who have managed to con their way into a respectable sounding career. I have zero knowledge of economics but if I was told what the UK growth figures were for the previous quarter then I have a feeling that I would have an even chance of predicting next quarter's figures better than most economists. It's hardly rocket science because if it was then they would do a hell of a lot better than they have been doing.

shortchanged_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I would. I have courage in my convictions.

Good for you Graham. Man enough to put your head on the block and at least able to admit it when you've been wrong.

Graham_Devon

thor wrote: »

Is there any reason we should care about the 'item club' predictions? Are they anymore accurate than the predictions of other(fake science) economists? They are forever upgrading or downgrading their forecasts which makes me think they are just a bunch of b*llsh*tters who have managed to con their way into a respectable sounding career. I have zero knowledge of economics but if I was told what the UK growth figures were for the previous quarter then I have a feeling that I would have an even chance of predicting next quarter's figures better than most economists. It's hardly rocket science because if it was then they would do a hell of a lot better than they have been doing.

With the economic forecasters, you have to look at who they work for. Many are trying to put a picture across, rather than a prediction.