Britain's Double-Dip Recession 'over And Recovery On The Way' - Item Club

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

According to the ITEM Club, the economy will return to growth over the final six months of the year, boosted by falling inflation and a pick-up in consumer spending.

From there, "the recovery could be quicker than expected" as confidence will recover sharply if eurozone leaders deliver on their promises for a banking union and growth pact.

Peter Spencer, ITEM's chief economic adviser, said: "Spiralling inflation has cut real wages by 7.5pc over the last four years, but the squeeze is almost over. Inflation is now coming back to heel."

He expects household disposable incomes to rise by 1.5pc in the final three months of year compared with the same period in 2011 and by 2.5pc in the first quarter of 2013.

The recovery in family finances will underpin growth of 1.6pc in 2013, accounting for two-thirds of the total increase in output, Mr Spencer said.

Official figures on Tuesday are expected to show that inflation is on the way down, falling to 2.7pc in June from 2.8pc in May. As recently as September last year, inflation was 5.2pc. ITEM expects inflation to fall to 1.7pc in the final quarter of the year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9401664/Britains-double-dip-recession-over-and-recovery-on-the-way-Item-Club.html

:beer:

shortchanged_2

As I stated on the other thread, does this mean they believe that wage inflation will be at 3.5 to 4%?

Because unless we either have a period of deflation or inflation is less than wage inflation how do things become more affordable than they are now?

DaddyBear

This doesn't even warrant a thread. Another non-organisation with a finger in the air prediction based on flawed logic. Nothing to see here.

abaxas

The abaxo self interest club, reports continued recession.

homelessskilledworker

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9401664/Britains-double-dip-recession-over-and-recovery-on-the-way-Item-Club.html

:beer:

I want you to be right, I swear I do.

But when I read stuff like you posted I think of Chamberlain waving his peace treaty before WW2

BJV

The problem with predictions is that they can be right or wrong. No one can know for sure.

I like like most of the UK just want it over and done with. Lets hope that this self fulfilling prophecy is at last true!

gagahouse

DaddyBear wrote: »

This doesn't even warrant a thread. Another non-organisation with a finger in the air prediction based on flawed logic. Nothing to see here.

judge for yourself on their previous record

July 2011:

Quote
As a result the ITEM Club has downgraded its GDP forecast for the UK to 1.4% in 2011 (down from the 1.8% it forecast in April), 2.2% in 2012 (down 0.1%) moving up to 2.5% in 2013.


July 2010:

Quote
Assuming rates stay at 0.5pc, ITEM expects the economy to grow roughly in line with OBR forecasts at 2.2pc next year and just below 3pc for the following three.

luvpump

Here is another one from Ernst & young from a few weeks ago ..

Painting a slightly gloomier picture than the article from the "Item club" ..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9368654/Europes-bad-debts-will-bite-in-2013.html

Wookster

Jees, better get on the ladder already, before prices go W-I-L-D!

Don't be missing the boat!


Ahem.

moneyinmypocket

We need wages to pick up in this country - to many companies are freezing Salarys year on year

ILW

moneyinmypocket wrote: »

We need wages to pick up in this country - to many companies are freezing Salarys year on year

We have spent too long with people exepecting above inflation pay rises year on year, even if the value of their work has not increased.