Nationwide June -0.6% MoM, -1.5% YoY

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

As per title.

“House prices declined by 0.6% in June, taking the annual
pace of house price growth down to -1.5%, the lowest
reading since August 2009.

The slightly weaker trend we’ve observed since March is unsurprising, given the difficult economic backdrop, with the UK economy dipping back into recession at the start of the year and few signs of a nearterm rebound.

Part of the weakness in house prices may
also relate to the ending of the stamp duty holiday in March,
which provided a temporary boost in early 2012, as buyers
brought forward purchases that would otherwise have taken
place later in the year.

The outlook for house prices remains highly uncertain.
Economic conditions are expected to remain challenging
over the next twelve months. However, policymakers’ efforts
to bolster the supply of credit to the economy and to help
lower the cost should provide support to demand.

Moreover, the supply side of the market is still constrained,
with construction failing to keep pace with the number of
new households being formed.

Overall, this suggests a continuation of the pattern
experienced over the past two years, with prices remaining
fairly stable over the next twelve months.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/June_2012.pdf

Graham_Devon

Good.

Filling up space.

Carl31

These announcements are fast becomming as uninteresting as the interest rate ones previously

Ill start getting interested again once we have had this same news 3 months on the trot

Graham_Devon

Hamish, you have often stated there is no direct stimulus for the housing market.

Well...

Nationwide think there is...

"However, policymakers' efforts to bolster the supply of credit to the economy and to help lower the cost should provide support to demand," he said.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Hamish, you have often stated there is no direct stimulus for the housing market.

Well...

Nationwide think there is...

Actually Graham, I've often stated the primary reason for liquidity support and low rates is to support the wider economy, and any benefits to the housing market are secondary.

Which is exactly what Nationwide have just said in your excerpt.

"policymakers' efforts to bolster the supply of credit to the economy"

Of course, the housing market is a part of the economy, so why would you be surprised if it also had an effect there?

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Actually Graham, I've often stated the primary reason for liquidity support and low rates is to support the wider economy, and any benefits to the housing market are secondary.

Which is exactly what Nationwide have just said in your excerpt.

"policymakers' efforts to bolster the supply of credit to the economy"

Of course, the housing market is a part of the economy, so why would you be surprised if it also had an effect there?

Again, you are looking at something in isolation, to make your point, which you are getting extremely good at lately.

This is a direct response to the lower house price values by a senior nationwide economist.

Mildly interesting that you have cut his sentence in half and ignored what didn't suit to back your point up, but it only makes you look a little ignorant.

There is no two ways of looking at this, and it's no good pretending he's talking about the wider economy and not specific support to the housing market when he goes on to say it provides lower costs which in turn supports demand.

angrypirate

Closer analysis of the figures make for interesting reading
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/datadownload/data_download.htm

"Real" house prices (ie adjusted for inflation) have fallen 23% from an inflation adjusted peak price in Q3 2007 of 215k to 164k.

Non seasonal adjusted figures are only -0.17% over the month (166,022 down to 165,738)

FTB house price to earnings ratio is an average of 4.3 in the UK - down by 0.1 over the last 12 months. Broken down, this is 3.0 (down 0.6) in NI, 3.2 (up 0.1) in the North of England, 3.3 (down 0.1) in Scotland and 6.4 (down 0.1) in London. (all figures in brackets are over the last 12 months)

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As per title.



http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/June_2012.pdf

I think that the housing market may be coming to an interesting point.

It was problems with the US housing market that mucked up the banks. However, it is increasingly looking like US housing has hit a bottom and that US housing could be a decent investment in yield terms at least.

If that is the case (a big if I grant you) then perhaps the foreclosed houses and those under forebearance (sp?) might start to regain value. That in turn could return some value to MBS/CDOs etc which could reflate the banking system.

That's not a prediction mind, just a possible outcome. I think the most likely outcome from here is not very nice but you never know <<<gives cheery !!!!!! van Dyke wink>>>.

homelessskilledworker

Generali wrote: »

I think that the housing market may be coming to an interesting point.

It was problems with the US housing market that mucked up the banks. However, it is increasingly looking like US housing has hit a bottom and that US housing could be a decent investment in yield terms at least.

If that is the case (a big if I grant you) then perhaps the foreclosed houses and those under forebearance (sp?) might start to regain value. That in turn could return some value to MBS/CDOs etc which could reflate the banking system.

That's not a prediction mind, just a possible outcome. I think the most likely outcome from here is not very nice but you never know <<<gives cheery !!!!!! van Dyke wink>>>.

Right now I don't care what price these houses are selling for, all I care about is that if we could be selling two or three million of them a year right now then the knock on effect to the UK economy would be massive... Trades working, white good's, sold ,white collar work etc etc

But in reality this is only going to happen when we get the fall in prices we need(Ihave a figure in my head).

ruggedtoast

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Good.

Filling up space.

What?


...

the_flying_pig

we all know better than to make strong predictions by now but i'd not be at all surprised to see quite a few more years of this, i.e. low transaction volumes & static or gently falling prices. the absurd noughties credit expansion [global but stronger than most in the UK] & its hangover were never going to wash out of the system quickly.