The HAMISH_MCTAVISH 2012 Predictions Thread

homelessskilledworker

Sibley wrote: »

Why you keeping your fingers crossed?

If prices drop 90% or more you will be in a position to buy.

And the UK plc will be on it's knees, why would anyone want that.

homelessskilledworker

Dan: wrote: »

My prediction is that you will win the 'Most Far Out Prediction' next year - an award that is normally held by Brit, so congratulations.

Soon as I saw your name I thought here we go again, just another troll post from someone who is now starting to worry me with his stalking like behaviour. And of course a post where there is zero content.

Rather than give constant lip, why do you not destroy my opinions with good solid debate. Unlike you I want to know if I am barking up the wrong tree.
But the truth is that you are probably a very scared man that has over extended and probably put all his egss in the one basket,,, silly boy.

You can lash out as much as you want, while you are ranting at the world I will be making the best of the circumstances that are given to us, not screaming at the moon.

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So now onto the issues.

House Prices: Last year I predicted flat with a slight bias towards falling prices, this year I'm predicting flat with a slight bias towards rising prices. So a range of -2% to +3% for the national indices.

Rent prices: Will continue to rise after the winter dip, albeit more slowly than in 2011.

Economy: No double dip recession, weak growth to continue.

Base rates: Will end the year at or below 1%.

Inflation: Will fall back towards target this year, perhaps slightly below, although this may be averted with more QE.

QE: Mostly depends on the Euro crisis and it's effect on bank lending, although we could also see it if inflation looks likely to fall well below target. I'd say a 50/50 chance we'll see another round in 2012.

Unemployment: Will peak around 2.8 million either in 2012 or early 2013 (slightly up on my previous estimate of 2.75).

Eurozone: Will stay intact.

Politics: The focus will increasingly be on growth and talking up the recovery with the clock ticking towards the next election. Osborne will claim not to have strayed from "Plan A", but will be forced to make further significant changes in order to ensure growth.

Gold and Silver: Both crashed in 2011. Gold may approach it's previous highs at some point but not meaningfully higher, Silver won't even come close, it's well and truly peaked.

The overall picture.... More of the same. Another relatively boring year, which at this point is probably a good thing.

Events in Europe in 2012 will impact and influence the direction of the UK economy. Far more than many people realise. So unlikely that the year be "boring".

RenovationMan

I'll have a bash at this, though I'm not too interested in some of the subject matter so they will be guesses, and not educated ones.

House Prices: +2% YoY on the Land Registry index.

Rent prices: Up 3%

Economy: Weak growth

Base rates: will remain at 0.5% all year

Inflation: will reduce down to 3% by this time next year

QE: None.

Unemployment: Increase by 4% by this time next year

Eurozone: Will have two fewer members by the end of the year

Politics: Austerity measures to continue

Gold and Silver: Silver price falling due to lower manufacturing requirements, Gold falling as the world starts to resolve economic crisis.

The overall picture.... much like 2011, which was much like 2010. More bumping along the bottom with not much to show for all the discussions on this board.

ruggedtoast

I agree with most of this McTavish thread. Which worries me.

geneer

i predict we're never going to see what hamish mctavishes 2007 predictions were.


Though I expect they included the prediction "I'm going to buy a house"

geneer

hamish_mctavish wrote: »

well folks it's that time of year again....

Results from 2011 thread here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=49667901&postcount=65

so now onto the issues.

House prices: Last year i predicted flat with a slight bias towards falling prices, this year i'm predicting flat with a slight bias towards rising prices. So a range of -2% to +3% for the national indices.

actually hamish last year you gave yourself a five percent spread. Pretty much as you did this year.

really, you're predicting that house prices won't be able to keep up with inflation.

rent prices: Will continue to rise after the winter dip, albeit more slowly than in 2011.

rent will probably keep up with inflation shocker.

economy: No double dip recession, weak growth to continue.

best of luck

base rates: Will end the year at or below 1%.

that is good news.

inflation: Will fall back towards target this year, perhaps slightly below, although this may be averted with more qe.

an actual stick your neck out prediction. Historically you don't do so well with these.

qe: Mostly depends on the euro crisis and it's effect on bank lending, although we could also see it if inflation looks likely to fall well below target. I'd say a 50/50 chance we'll see another round in 2012.

so you've no idea then.

unemployment: Will peak around 2.8 million either in 2012 or early 2013 (slightly up on my previous estimate of 2.75).

Eurozone: Will stay intact.

in one form or another

politics: The focus will increasingly be on growth and talking up the recovery with the clock ticking towards the next election. Osborne will claim not to have strayed from "plan a", but will be forced to make further significant changes in order to ensure growth.

politicians lean towards positive spin shocker.
same as last year

gold and silver: Both crashed in 2011. Gold may approach it's previous highs at some point but not meaningfully higher, silver won't even come close, it's well and truly peaked.

and?

the overall picture.... More of the same. Another relatively boring year, which at this point is probably a good thing.

another relatively boring year of nominal house price falls.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Silver peaked at $50 an ounce, and today is trading at $28. That's a decline of 44% from peak.

Now 'truthfully', can you really call that anything other than a "crash"?

Gold peaked North of $1900 an ounce, and today is trading at around $1585. A decline of circa 17% from peak. Now I suppose you could call that "volatility" if you want to, but a 17% decline from peak in around 6 months, including the biggest weekly decline in the history of gold prices, would more accurately be described as a crash I reckon.

I can see what you are trying to say, but Silver is trading at the same level it started the year at.

So no, I wouldn't call it a crash. I would say it's been volitile.

As for your suggestion that gold crashed....that's just nonsense! You have denied house prices crashed, ans they fell more than gold in the period you have defined.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So no, I wouldn't call it a crash. I would say it's been volitile.

Hamish would call that "normal seasonal variations".

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I can see what you are trying to say, but Silver is trading at the same level it started the year at.

According to Cleaver's post earlier, it's down 7.5% from the start of the year.

And down 44% from peak.

So no, I wouldn't call it a crash. I would say it's been volitile.

House prices are down around 10% from peak. Would you say that's "volatile" too?

As for your suggestion that gold crashed....that's just nonsense!

17% in 6 months isn't a crash? Since when?

You have denied house prices crashed,

I've said no such thing.

ans they fell more than gold in the period you have defined.

Really?

House prices have fallen by more than17% in the last 6 months? Or in any 6 months?

Proof please.