The HAMISH_MCTAVISH 2012 Predictions Thread

geneer

JonnyBravo wrote: »

It's quite clear some of his other points do have a "direct prediction".

And? Some =/= all.

LilacPixie

House Prices: mostly flat some mom flass then mom rises, ending 2012 +1.5% YoY

Rent prices: +5%

Economy: weak growth +1.5%

Base rates: stay 0.5% for whole of 2012

Inflation: +3%

QE: no

Unemployment: rising, peaking at 2.9mil

Eurozone: volitile, lots of infighting and power struggles. ending 2012 intact but only just

Politics: no idea, condems are crap but there is no fight from red ed so i guess a 2012 new leader for labour.

Gold and Silver: end 2012 + or - 1% from the lever they started 2012

AD9898_2

I see most people believe it'll be the same as the last couple of years, or 'bumping along the bottom'. What is becoming clearer year on year, is this 'bumping along the bottom' which we have done since 2008 coincides exactly with the plateau of oil production. I believe this kind of economic state to continue before the inexorable fall from this plateau around 2018.

The ten years from 2018-2028 will then be pivotal in the direction humanity takes after the avorice and greed of the previous 100 years. Exponential growth the like we've seen in the past 100 years is now at an end. It is a fundamental law of physics, infinite growth in a finite world is impossible and we as a species is likely to learn this lesson the hard way unfortunately.

RenovationMan

geneer wrote: »

I'll let you know when I see a direct prediction Hamish.

You may choose to characterise analysis of the true scope of your predictions as "trolling", but I prefer to think of it as analysis of the true scope of your predictions.

LOL, geneer will make a 'prediction' at the end of 2012 and it'll be right. He'll then claim that his subtle avatar changes and vague posts over the year totally signified his prediction Year-End 2012. :rotfl:

chewmylegoff

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Silver peaked at $50 an ounce, and today is trading at $28. That's a decline of 44% from peak.

Now 'truthfully', can you really call that anything other than a "crash"?

Gold peaked North of $1900 an ounce, and today is trading at around $1585. A decline of circa 17% from peak. Now I suppose you could call that "volatility" if you want to, but a 17% decline from peak in around 6 months, including the biggest weekly decline in the history of gold prices, would more accurately be described as a crash I reckon.

If houses had increased by about 35%, then fallen by 17%, to end the year 12% up, I bet you would be laughing in the face of anyone who claimed there had been a house price crash!

JonnyBravo

geneer wrote: »

And? Some =/= all.

Oh I see. You need him to predict everything about everything first.
More obfuscation and prevarication.
Plain for all to see.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

RenovationMan wrote: »

LOL, geneer will make a 'prediction' at the end of 2012 and it'll be right. He'll then claim that his subtle avatar changes and vague posts over the year totally signified his prediction Year-End 2012. :rotfl:

I've only come on here to laugh at the troll.....:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

He is funny.....:D

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chewmylegoff wrote: »

If houses had increased by about 35%, then fallen by 17%, to end the year 12% up, I bet you would be laughing in the face of anyone who claimed there had been a house price crash!

Silver is down 7.5% on the start of the year.:)

sabretoothtigger

The rest is schematics but gold I see 2000 to 2250 as a reasonable target and it is very weak now so that would be exceptional. I think other factors will be weak but global trade to be positive. House prices to drop adjusted for inflation, flat over the decade but quite negative for now

Generali

It all depends on what happens in the USA but assuming that they sort of continue to muddle along rather than recovering or falling apart then I reckon the below:

GDP: +1.5%
Unemployment: 2,750,000
Base rate: 0.5% with more QE
House prices: down a couple of % in nominal terms
CPI: 2% (max)
Gold/silver prices: no idea.
FTSE: volatile
10 year Gilts: 3% (1% or less if the Euro collapses)
Euro: no idea. Probably survive.

Aussie Specials:
Unemployment: up a little (6%?)
Base rate: down to 4%
Median house price: down 5-10% depending on which city you are talking about.