The HAMISH_MCTAVISH 2012 Predictions Thread

Generali

Generali wrote: »

It all depends on what happens in the USA but assuming that they sort of continue to muddle along rather than recovering or falling apart then I reckon the below:

GDP: +1.5%: 0.7% (strictly speaking the scores aren't in)
Unemployment: 2,750,000: 2,500,000
Base rate: 0.5% with more QE: Yup
House prices: down a couple of % in nominal terms Yup(ish)
CPI: 2% (max) 2.7% (again that's a latest score)
Gold/silver prices: no idea.
FTSE: volatile (yup!)
10 year Gilts: 3% (1% or less if the Euro collapses) (sub 2%: rubbish)
Euro: no idea. Probably survive. It limps on

Aussie Specials:
Unemployment: up a little (6%?) It is up a little although not as high as 6%
Base rate: down to 4% Down but to 3.5%
Median house price: down 5-10% depending on which city you are talking about. House prices have been weak but I got this one flat wrong

Cheers Hamish. Good game. I look forward to a similar 'success' in 2013.:D

michaels

Generali wrote: »

Cheers Hamish. Good game. I look forward to a similar 'success' in 2013.:D

Game?! - Do you know how much I lost on your 10 year govt bond price prediction