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The HAMISH_MCTAVISH 2012 Predictions Thread
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
Well folks it's that time of year again....
Results from 2011 thread here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=49667901&postcount=65
So now onto the issues.
House Prices: Last year I predicted flat with a slight bias towards falling prices, this year I'm predicting flat with a slight bias towards rising prices. So a range of -2% to +3% for the national indices.
Rent prices: Will continue to rise after the winter dip, albeit more slowly than in 2011.
Economy: No double dip recession, weak growth to continue.
Base rates: Will end the year at or below 1%.
Inflation: Will fall back towards target this year, perhaps slightly below, although this may be averted with more QE.
QE: Mostly depends on the Euro crisis and it's effect on bank lending, although we could also see it if inflation looks likely to fall well below target. I'd say a 50/50 chance we'll see another round in 2012.
Unemployment: Will peak around 2.8 million either in 2012 or early 2013 (slightly up on my previous estimate of 2.75).
Eurozone: Will stay intact.
Politics: The focus will increasingly be on growth and talking up the recovery with the clock ticking towards the next election. Osborne will claim not to have strayed from "Plan A", but will be forced to make further significant changes in order to ensure growth.
Gold and Silver: Both crashed in 2011. Gold may approach it's previous highs at some point but not meaningfully higher, Silver won't even come close, it's well and truly peaked.
The overall picture.... More of the same. Another relatively boring year, which at this point is probably a good thing.
Results from 2011 thread here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=49667901&postcount=65
So now onto the issues.
House Prices: Last year I predicted flat with a slight bias towards falling prices, this year I'm predicting flat with a slight bias towards rising prices. So a range of -2% to +3% for the national indices.
Rent prices: Will continue to rise after the winter dip, albeit more slowly than in 2011.
Economy: No double dip recession, weak growth to continue.
Base rates: Will end the year at or below 1%.
Inflation: Will fall back towards target this year, perhaps slightly below, although this may be averted with more QE.
QE: Mostly depends on the Euro crisis and it's effect on bank lending, although we could also see it if inflation looks likely to fall well below target. I'd say a 50/50 chance we'll see another round in 2012.
Unemployment: Will peak around 2.8 million either in 2012 or early 2013 (slightly up on my previous estimate of 2.75).
Eurozone: Will stay intact.
Politics: The focus will increasingly be on growth and talking up the recovery with the clock ticking towards the next election. Osborne will claim not to have strayed from "Plan A", but will be forced to make further significant changes in order to ensure growth.
Gold and Silver: Both crashed in 2011. Gold may approach it's previous highs at some point but not meaningfully higher, Silver won't even come close, it's well and truly peaked.
The overall picture.... More of the same. Another relatively boring year, which at this point is probably a good thing.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Gold and Silver: Both crashed in 2011. Gold may approach it's previous highs at some point but not meaningfully higher, Silver won't even come close, it's well and truly peaked.
To be pedantic I would say that gold and silver were volitile in 2011, rather than that they simply 'crashed'. Yes, there were big falls but there were also big rises. Gold finished up 11% in 2011 and silver down 7.5%.
Obviously I agree that if you bought loads of silver in April and not at other times you might consider it a very big crash. For what it's worth I agree with you that it won't reach anywhere near its 2011 peak in 2012.0 -
House prices: Up 3%
Economy: GDP +1.95%
BoE Rate: 0.75% at year end
Inflation: Falling throughout 2012 but not below 3%
Housing transactions increasing throughout year.0 -
House Prices: very small fall, down 1.5%.
Rent prices: up 2%
Economy: I think it will bump along the bottom, 1% growth, but depends on the Euro.
Base rates: Have already cast my vote on this 0.5%
Inflation: will fall back a lot due to increase in VAT falling out. I'm going for 2.5%.
QE: 50/50 too.
Unemployment: Mmm.. I think peak will be a bit higher than that. Will go for 2.9m.
Eurozone: I think Greece will fall out. Just not sure whether it will happen in 2012.
Politics: I think the opposition is too weak at this point so Osborne can continue (if he continues to think it's the right way). Like all governments seeking reelection though, I expect him to have something up his sleeve when the time gets closer.
Gold and Silver: Silver past its prime, agreed. Gold will stay stubbornly high due to value as hedge but won't hit previous highs (unless Euro collapses then all bets off).
The overall picture.... I have concerns about Eurozone stability and credit crunch 2. If they can be averted, then I agree that it could be more of the same.Please stay safe in the sun and learn the A-E of melanoma: A = asymmetry, B = irregular borders, C= different colours, D= diameter, larger than 6mm, E = evolving, is your mole changing? Most moles are not cancerous, any doubts, please check next time you visit your GP.
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Well folks it's that time of year again....
Results from 2011 thread here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=49667901&postcount=65
So now onto the issues.
House Prices: Last year I predicted flat with a slight bias towards falling prices, this year I'm predicting flat with a slight bias towards rising prices. So a range of -2% to +3% for the national indices.
Rent prices: Will continue to rise after the winter dip, albeit more slowly than in 2011.
Economy: No double dip recession, weak growth to continue.
Base rates: Will end the year at or below 1%.
Inflation: Will fall back towards target this year, perhaps slightly below, although this may be averted with more QE.
QE: Mostly depends on the Euro crisis and it's effect on bank lending, although we could also see it if inflation looks likely to fall well below target. I'd say a 50/50 chance we'll see another round in 2012.
Unemployment: Will peak around 2.8 million either in 2012 or early 2013 (slightly up on my previous estimate of 2.75).
Eurozone: Will stay intact.
Politics: The focus will increasingly be on growth and talking up the recovery with the clock ticking towards the next election. Osborne will claim not to have strayed from "Plan A", but will be forced to make further significant changes in order to ensure growth.
Gold and Silver: Both crashed in 2011. Gold may approach it's previous highs at some point but not meaningfully higher, Silver won't even come close, it's well and truly peaked.
The overall picture.... More of the same. Another relatively boring year, which at this point is probably a good thing.
Norminal HPI will be around minus -10 for 2012 and should hit minus -30% in 2014 with the potential to be far worse, I am keeping my fingers crossed that it won't be.
Obviously using real HPI things are going to look a lot worse, I cannot make my my mind up about the direction of CPI or RPI in the coming year, I am not as convinced as Melvyn King that it will be coming down.
Unemployment is going to rise, GDP is going to fall like a stone, if we are not in recession now we will be by 2nd Q 2012.
2012 is where we enter the real recession, and apart from printing money(which they will) there is no more liquidity in the system, the taxpayer can't and won't be squeezed anymore.
The Euro is the main story for 2012, if that collapses then things will be even worse than they will be anyway.0 -
House Prices: Down 3% to 5% with the majority of the fall occuring towards the end of the year
Rent prices: Stable
Economy: Back into recession by the middle of the year
Base rates: 1.5% as wage inflation starts to increase
Inflation: 4%.
QE: No
Unemployment: Above 3 million
Eurozone: Another year of can kicking, but less acceptance 0f this by the markets.
Politics: Greater pressure on the coalition with the possibility of an early election towards the end of the year.
Gold and Silver: Who cares?
The overall picture.... In the words of Status Quo... "Down, down, deeper and down.""When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty." - Thomas Jefferson0 -
To be pedantic I would say that gold and silver were volitile in 2011, rather than that they simply 'crashed'. Yes, there were big falls but there were also big rises. Gold finished up 11% in 2011 and silver down 7.5%.
So, how can we take Hamish's predictions seriously, when he can't truthfully tell us what has actually happened ?
Hamish wanted Gold and Silver to crash, so he tells us that they did. :rotfl:30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
To be pedantic I would say that gold and silver were volitile in 2011, rather than that they simply 'crashed'. Yes, there were big falls but there were also big rises.So, how can we take Hamish's predictions seriously, when he can't truthfully tell us what has actually happened ?
Hamish wanted Gold and Silver to crash, so he tells us that they did. :rotfl:
Silver peaked at $50 an ounce, and today is trading at $28. That's a decline of 44% from peak.
Now 'truthfully', can you really call that anything other than a "crash"?
Gold peaked North of $1900 an ounce, and today is trading at around $1585. A decline of circa 17% from peak. Now I suppose you could call that "volatility" if you want to, but a 17% decline from peak in around 6 months, including the biggest weekly decline in the history of gold prices, would more accurately be described as a crash I reckon.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »Norminal HPI will be around minus -10 for 2012 and should hit minus -30% in 2014 with the potential to be far worse, I am keeping my fingers crossed that it won't be.
My prediction is that you will win the 'Most Far Out Prediction' next year - an award that is normally held by Brit, so congratulations.0 -
Might as well throw these in this thread as well.
Property price predictions 2012
Ray Boulger - down 4%
Bernard Clarke - "a broadly flat market"
Jonathan Davis - down 10%
Martin Ellis - "unchanged plus or minus 2%"
Robert Gardner - "flat to modestly lower"
Henry Pryor - down 10%
Simon Rubinsohn - down 3%
Ed Stansfield - down 5%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16288438“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Norminal HPI will be around minus -10 for 2012 and should hit minus -30% in 2014 with the potential to be far worse, I am keeping my fingers crossed that it won't be.
Why you keeping your fingers crossed?
If prices drop 90% or more you will be in a position to buy.We love Sarah O Grady0
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