Halifax -0.5% MoM -2.3% YoY

GDB2222

Quote:
Originally Posted by nearlynew
Lower prices are a good thing all round.

Nothing will be fixed until prices fall, the over-leveraged take the hit and banks are allowed to fail.
You can't let the banks fail - it will cause far worse problems then house price falls.

I think it's fairly obvious by now that government policy is to maintain house prices at roughly current levels, so as to protect the banks against massive defaults. At the same time, inflation is being let rip, as a means of reducing the real value of government borrowing. If wages fail to keep pace with prices, as seems likely, real living standards will drop, which is necessary to try to make the UK competitive again. It's all fine, unless you're a saver with cash in the bank earning next to nothing.

joguest

Rinoa wrote: »

Considerable activity in the market this past few months. BoE mortgage approvals are the highest for 20 months.

And today Connells surveyors are reporting remarkable increases both MoM and YoY.

http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/241462/4/Daily_news/Mortgage_market_picked_up_in_September.htm

Takes a little while for increased sales to work their way through to prices, but work through they will.

If you look at the land registry figures for house prices and sales volumes you'll notice that during bear markets, prices fall with increasing volume. Their publically available data begins in 1995 and such sell offs are noticeable in 1995 & 1996, but then don't re-appear again until various periods after 2007. Rising volumes do not imply rising prices at all. In today's market, it is quite likely that a rise in volumes is due to sellers selling because of expectations of future price falls.

JonnyBravo

geneer wrote: »

2 nil to the bears for this months Numberwang.

:rotfl:

ooooo a risky early call.....

but yes....

that's Numberwang!

Thrugelmir

GDB2222 wrote: »

I think it's fairly obvious by now that government policy is to maintain house prices at roughly current levels, so as to protect the banks against massive defaults.

BOE policy not Government. To maintain liquidity in the banking system and allow the debt bubble to deflate slowly.

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

Considerable activity in the market this past few months. BoE mortgage approvals are the highest for 20 months.

Although looking back at mortgage approvals since 2007, this 20 month high you're referring to is not that different to the general trend since 2007.

And still 50% less than what it was at peak.


So basically you've thoughtlessly regurgitated meaningless spin in the hope that no one has considered the matter in any greater depth.

Sorry about that.

Really2

geneer wrote: »

Although looking back at mortgage approvals since 2007, this 20 month high you're referring to is not that different to the general trend since 2007.

And still 50% less than what it was at peak.

You can't wait to get sales back to HPI 10-20% YoY levels can you.
If we should never go back to the lose lending levels of pre-crash, why do you use the transaction levels as a benchmark?

Rinoa

joguest wrote: »

If you look at the land registry figures for house prices and sales volumes you'll notice that during bear markets, prices fall with increasing volume. Their publically available data begins in 1995 and such sell offs are noticeable in 1995 & 1996, but then don't re-appear again until various periods after 2007. Rising volumes do not imply rising prices at all. In today's market, it is quite likely that a rise in volumes is due to sellers selling because of expectations of future price falls.

Not sure about that. Records show that prices started rising appreciably from 1996 onwards. Of course, sales volumes (demand) have to be compared to stock on the market (supply). But whilsts stock has remained steady this past few months, sales volumes have inceased markedly

If that trend continues prices should respond accordingly.

doire_2

Rinoa wrote: »

Considerable activity in the market this past few months. BoE mortgage approvals are the highest for 20 months.

And today Connells surveyors are reporting remarkable increases both MoM and YoY.

http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/241462/4/Daily_news/Mortgage_market_picked_up_in_September.htm

Takes a little while for increased sales to work their way through to prices, but work through they will.

While this bounceback has been exaggerated by the end of the traditional summer lull

How remarkable

joguest

Rinoa wrote: »

Not sure about that. Records show that prices started rising appreciably from 1996 onwards. Of course, sales volumes (demand) have to be compared to stock on the market (supply). But whilsts stock has remained steady this past few months, sales volumes have inceased markedly

If that trend continues prices should respond accordingly.

It doesn't matter whether you're sure about that or not. I was quoting a fact. Go look at the data.

Sales volume is not demand. If lots of homeowners decide they want to sell off their houses because they expect them to be worth less in a few years time then that is an increase in supply. Demand is a function of price - if the sellers are willing to sell for a lower price than a previous market high as they expect prices to continue falling then the demand will be greater at that lower price (assuming elasticity). The higher demand at the lower prices = greater number of sales.

joguest

Rinoa wrote: »

Not sure about that. Records show that prices started rising appreciably from 1996 onwards. Of course, sales volumes (demand) have to be compared to stock on the market (supply). But whilsts stock has remained steady this past few months, sales volumes have inceased markedly

If that trend continues prices should respond accordingly.

Essentially you're trying to argue that an increase in volumes is always caused by a shift in the demand curve (increase in demand). It may have been true during the bubble (2000-2007) - but that's why it was a bubble - i.e. unsustainable price rises driven by speculation made possible by unsustainable lending practices (the increase in demand). A ponzi scheme.

The shift in the demand curve during the bubble was due to easy credit. That shift increased volumes, but then again so would a shift in the supply curve (increase in supply) with a stationary demand curve, which would lead to lower prices and increased volumes. At the moment, demand is constrained by stationary employment levels, wage freezes, tax rises, consumer inflation (and there's no sign of the banks relaxing their deposit/lending criteria). Any increase in sales volumes at present is almost certain to be down to an increase in supply (increase in forced selling and change in market sentiment), which would imply lower prices.