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Debate House Prices
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Halifax -0.5% MoM -2.3% YoY
Comments
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Essentially you're trying to argue that an increase in price is always caused by a shift in the demand curve (increase in demand). It may have been true during the bubble (2000-2007) - but that's why it was a bubble - i.e. unsustainable price rises driven by speculation made possible by unsustainable lending practices (the increase in demand). A ponzi scheme.
The shift in the demand curve during the bubble was due to easy credit. That shift increased volumes, but then again so would a shift in the supply curve (increase in supply) with a stationary demand curve, which would lead to lower prices and increased volumes. At the moment, demand is constrained by stationary employment levels, wage freezes, tax rises, consumer inflation. Any increase in sales volumes at present is almost certain to be down to an increase in supply (increase in forced selling and change in market sentiment), which would imply lower prices.
Last RICs survey showed stock levels are down, so your analysis is fundamentally flawed.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
It makes me laugh when people quote "official figures" as if they are the final word and no further analysis is necessary."The problem with quotes on the internet is that you never know whether they are genuine or not" -
Albert Einstein0 -
Last RICs survey showed stock levels are down, so your analysis is fundamentally flawed.
Did you read a word of what I said?? I didn't put much analysis in there - most of it was GCSE level economics, of which you don't seem to be aware.
What have stock levels got to do with anything? Supply is a function of price and represents the ability and willingness of vendors to sell i.e. the quantities of product sellers are willing to sell (at a given time) as a function of price.0 -
Remarkable indeed.
_party_.
Not really.
Despite your seeming fondness for them the measures you're quoting are IMO only very, very indirectly related to "house prices and the economy".
A similar belief, IMO, explains why they attract such modest amounts of interest in the mainstream press, and also why they don't cause any particular arguments on this forum. I'm just not sure anyone finds them very interesting.FACT.0 -
Did you read a word of what I said?? I didn't put much analysis in there - most of it was GCSE level economics, of which you don't seem to be aware.
What have stock levels got to do with anything? Supply is a function of price and represents the ability and willingness of vendors to sell i.e. the quantities of product sellers are willing to sell (at a given time) as a function of price.
Hmmm. Lots of fancy economic terms there joguest. But I'll stick to my theory that increased sales are better for prices than falling sales.
And lets just remind ourselves that back in 2009 you were going to come back and laugh at us when prices had collapsed.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
Hmmm. Lots of fancy economic terms there joguest. But I'll stick to my theory that increased sales are better for prices than falling sales.
And lets just remind ourselves that back in 2009 you were going to come back and laugh at us when prices had collapsed.
They almost have done where I'm sitting. If you go and have a look at the land registry prices for Leicester, prices are heading down and, if they follow the current trend for another month or two, will break below the 2009 bottom of the market. Thanks for reminding me - I'll get my mwahahahahas ready for when the moment arrives - although I have to admit I did underestimate the scale of the bounce over the last couple of years.
House prices in Leicester:
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Thrugelmir wrote: »BOE policy not Government. To maintain liquidity in the banking system and allow the debt bubble to deflate slowly.
You don't think that maybe the BOE have little chats with the government?No reliance should be placed on the above! Absolutely none, do you hear?0 -
You can't let the banks fail - it will cause far worse problems then house price falls.
Agree about the banks; taxpayers will struggle to pick up the slack of all those lost taxes and too many smaller firms will lose out from the spending. With some banks moving offices to Hong Kong, there is no shortage of staff wanting to move too, with the very attractive income tax rate of just 15%. The UK is still benefiting financially from London being the world trade centre, but Hong Kong is making it so attractive for banks and staff to relocate.
Don't agree about the house prices as they need to drop to a lower level to help the young. The government are certainly working hard to help. Massive welfare cuts to come, starting next year, with the LHA cuts starting to bite from January 2012 for existing tenancies and other welfare cuts from April 2012. The medicals for those that say they are too sick to work, have already started (sick money is much higher than Job Seekers Allowance) These welfare cuts and new NHS rules, will mean that the UK will cease to have the most generous welfare system in Europe. France are already complaining. The sheer breathtaking speed of immigration visas being closed and others being amended (some retrospectively) to stop settlement in the UK, will lower the demand for houses too.
I was amazed to read on the benefits board that those with offset mortgages who used 0% interest rate cards to temporary lower their mortgage, can't have welfare state help for the whole of the mortgage amount. Those who mewed, can't get state help on the full amount either.RENTING? Have you checked to see that your landlord has permission from their mortgage lender to rent the property? If not, you could be thrown out with very little notice.
Read the sticky on the House Buying, Renting & Selling board.0 -
They almost have done where I'm sitting. If you go and have a look at the land registry prices for Leicester, prices are heading down and, if they follow the current trend for another month or two, will break below the 2009 bottom of the market. Thanks for reminding me - I'll get my mwahahahahas ready for when the moment arrives - although I have to admit I did underestimate the scale of the bounce over the last couple of years.
House prices in Leicester:
Holy cow are you the actual Jo Guest?
If you are I would certainly like you to post more of your demand curves.0
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