Halifax -0.5% MoM -2.3% YoY

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

As per title.

Either this month or next month is the month where last year was -3.6% or something equally daft, which mostly bounced back in the following month, so the YoY stats will blip around a bit at the moment.

Also worth noting the bears favourite measure, the 3mo on 3mo, is actually positive and improving.

From the report....

"House prices in Quarter 3 (July to September) were slightly higher than in Quarter 2 (April to June).

The 0.1% increase between the two quarters was the first quarterly rise since Quarter 1 2010.

"The more volatile monthly figures showed a 0.5% decline in prices in September. This continued the mixed monthly picture experienced so far this year with four rises, four falls and one no change since January. This mixed pattern is consistent with a market where prices are lacking genuine direction. "Greater uncertainty about economic and personal financial circumstances, together with pressure on householders' finances from weak earnings growth, higher inflation and increases in taxes, are likely to be constraining housing demand.

Despite these pressures, low interest rates and a rise in employment over the past year, have been supporting the market, resulting in broad stability in both prices and activity.

We expect little change over the remainder of this year.

Dan:_4

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/2011/HousePriceIndexSeptember2011.pdf

Pimperne1

Its a discredited index. Even they don't believe it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Also worth noting that typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from 48% of average disposable earnings in mid 2007 to 26% in 2011 Quarter 3.

This is significantly below the average of 37% over the past 25 years and is at its lowest since 1997.

abaxas

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Also worth noting that typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from 48% of average disposable earnings in mid 2007 to 26% in 2011 Quarter 3.

This is significantly below the average of 37% over the past 25 years and is at its lowest since 1997.

Maybe those on 20k cant afford to save the deposit.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

abaxas wrote: »

Maybe those on 20k cant afford to save the deposit.

So you're saying the current exorbitant deposit requirements as a result of mortgage rationing are penalising the young and poor.

Unsurprisingly, I wouldn't disagree with that.;)

OptionARMAGEDDON

they should have during the boom years.

abaxas

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So you're saying the current exorbitant deposit requirements as a result of mortgage rationing are penalising the young and poor.

Unsurprisingly, I wouldn't disagree with that.;)

No I'm saying saving 5k is easier than 20k.

angrypirate

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As per title.

Either this month or next month is the month where last year was -3.6% or something equally daft, which mostly bounced back in the following month, so the YoY stats will blip around a bit at the moment.

Also worth noting the bears favourite measure, the 3mo on 3mo, is actually positive and improving.

From the report....

"House prices in Quarter 3 (July to September) were slightly higher than in Quarter 2 (April to June).

The 0.1% increase between the two quarters was the first quarterly rise since Quarter 1 2010.

"The more volatile monthly figures showed a 0.5% decline in prices in September. This continued the mixed monthly picture experienced so far this year with four rises, four falls and one no change since January. This mixed pattern is consistent with a market where prices are lacking genuine direction. "Greater uncertainty about economic and personal financial circumstances, together with pressure on householders' finances from weak earnings growth, higher inflation and increases in taxes, are likely to be constraining housing demand.

Despite these pressures, low interest rates and a rise in employment over the past year, have been supporting the market, resulting in broad stability in both prices and activity.

We expect little change over the remainder of this year.

Granted its positive (just, at 0.1%), and it is an improvement on last month, it doesnt look like it will continue improving. In fact, if prices dont rise by 1.5% this month, it will turn negative again come the figures at the start of November

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Also worth noting that typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from 48% of average disposable earnings in mid 2007 to 26% in 2011 Quarter 3.

This is significantly below the average of 37% over the past 25 years and is at its lowest since 1997.

Not really surprising with only the higher earners able to secure a mortgage.

While you will bang on about rationing, it more to do with high prices.

As for the 0.5% down. Good.

Have to say, not looking good, considering what they said about the support. If with support it still falls in peak buying season I hate to think what will happen when the support falls over.

The support is merely dragging the whole process out. Gravity is too strong. It's become a game of how long can interest rates stay low, as we all know deep down, when that changes, the current status quo is !!!!ed.

nearlynew

Lower prices are a good thing all round.

Nothing will be fixed until prices fall, the over-leveraged take the hit and banks are allowed to fail.