Halifax -0.5% MoM -2.3% YoY

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You have totally contradicted yourself.

Higher earners will have higher disposable income.

Stop trying so hard.

You disputed the affordability figures because you thought they were based on the earnings of the halifax mortgagees. I've shown they were based on national averages and therefore not being skewed by the probably higher income of those who do get a mortgage.

Borrowing costs have reduced and according to the ONS pay is up by 2.8% YOY. As a proportion of income, therefore, less money is required to service the debt.

Really it's not that difficult. It's just a ratio.

gmang

The "Haliwide" indices are little more than advertising ploys for their financial products. They do not take into account cash purchases, which now make up a significant and increasing proportion of sales, and are heavily regionally weighted. Just look at the offset between the two biggest players! The only index to watch is from the Land Registry. They have no vested interest in selling products and make sure they compare like with like.

That said, it's interesting to plot the "delusion" index, made up of the rightmove asking price index minus your favourite Haliwide. The delusion index is the only one that is soaring!!

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

This is significantly below the average of 37% over the past 25 years and is at its lowest since 1997.

Which merely illustrates that normality is returning to the property market. As lenders are advancing mortgages on an affordable sustainable basis. The average 37% will be heavily skewed by the 48% of 2007.

ess0two

Really2 wrote: »

Why do people keep banging on about interest rates, they wont move until the economy looks better or in the unlikely event QE causes a wage spiral.
Both would in general be more beneficial to owners than the current situation.

Its the last roll of the dice to instigate a hoped for major downturn in prices.

Graham_Devon

ess0two wrote: »

Its the last roll of the dice to instigate a hoped for major downturn in prices.

We've had many last rolls.

Fact is, house prices are down this month 0.5%.

Down YOY 2.3%.

That's with a lot of support thrown at them. That support now is starting to fade, due to inflation taking over peoples budgets. House prices are simply too high and can only be propped up for so long.

As much as the more bullish want to argue over the tiniest of detail, it's what it is.

House prices are down. That's good.

Unless you have a BTL, which most of those taking offence to the meaning of a singular word or the tone of a paragraph, do.

JonnyBravo

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Which merely illustrates that normality is returning to the property market. As lenders are advancing mortgages on an affordable sustainable basis. The average 37% will be heavily skewed by the 48% of 2007.

An average of 25 years is heavily skewed by one year being 30% higher than the average?
You might as well say it's being skewed by the 26% now. That's equi-distant from the average in the other direction.

Is this another Rule of 51 moment?

JonnyBravo

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We've had many last rolls.

Fact is, house prices are down this month 0.5%.

Down YOY 2.3%.

That's with a lot of support thrown at them. That support now is starting to fade, due to inflation taking over peoples budgets. House prices are simply too high and can only be propped up for so long.

As much as the more bullish want to argue over the tiniest of detail, it's what it is.

House prices are down. That's good.

Unless you have a BTL, which most of those taking offence to the meaning of a singular word or the tone of a paragraph, do.

Absolutely. Many "last rolls" on both sides.
The data is what it is. Nothing to fear.
No real recovery and no real crash. Just lots of "p1ss1ng about somewhere in between"


Clearly the arguments are just about what happens next. What do u think will happen if we get wage inflation too?

doire_2

Negative can only mean one thing.....a ridiculous Express headline is on its way.

Special agent Sarah O'Grady is hard at work as i type

Graham_Devon

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Absolutely. Many "last rolls" on both sides.
The data is what it is. Nothing to fear.
No real recovery and no real crash. Just lots of "p1ss1ng about somewhere in between"


Clearly the arguments are just about what happens next. What do u think will happen if we get wage inflation too?

Either we'll get interest rate rises, which wage inflation won't combat, in terms of mortgage payments.

If interest rates rose 2.5%, we'd need a hell of a lot of wage inflation to make up for the increase in monthly mortgage payments AND increase in general cost of living.

Or, we'll be called Zimbritain.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We've had many last rolls.

Fact is, house prices are down this month 0.5%.

Down YOY 2.3%.

That's with a lot of support thrown at them. That support now is starting to fade, due to inflation taking over peoples budgets. House prices are simply too high and can only be propped up for so long.

As much as the more bullish want to argue over the tiniest of detail, it's what it is.

House prices are down. That's good.

Unless you have a BTL, which most of those taking offence to the meaning of a singular word or the tone of a paragraph, do.

You are forgetting that the biggest indicator of direction on the now gospel index is heading towards stagnation, not accelerating falls.

May 2011 = -4.2%
June 2011 = -3.5%
July 2011 = -2.6%
Aug 2011 = -2.6%
Sept 2011 = -2.3%

I can't see anyone taking offence, other than those trying to hail this as a great signal that prices are falling quickly again.
The data is still saying stagnant.