Halifax -0.5% MoM -2.3% YoY

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Either we'll get interest rate rises, which wage inflation won't combat, in terms of mortgage payments.

If interest rates rose 2.5%, we'd need a hell of a lot of wage inflation to make up for the increase in monthly mortgage payments AND increase in general cost of living.

Or, we'll be called Zimbritain.

Why would IR rise though GD? You need to indicate a reason,
they wont just go up for "oh the economy is still bad, lets put rates up"
There would have to a sound logical reason to put rates up.
Those reasons in reality would be economic growth or signs of sustainable inflation, eg sharper wage increases.

Anyone saying correctly that people now have less money and can't afford stuff should really be able to get their head round why the current inflation is unsustainable.
That is now been shown as demand drops.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

You are forgetting that the biggest indicator of direction on the now gospel index is heading towards stagnation, not accelerating falls.

May 2011 = -4.2%
June 2011 = -3.5%
July 2011 = -2.6%
Aug 2011 = -2.6%
Sept 2011 = -2.3%

I can't see anyone taking offence, other than those trying to hail this as a great signal that prices are falling quickly again.
The data is still saying stagnant.

I'm not forgetting anything. It's still down, regardless if you want to call it stagnation or not.

Ok, let's put it another way.

You give me a list of things which will lift house prices from today.

I'll give you a list of things which are a weight on prices.

See who has the longest list.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Why would IR rise though GD? You need to indicate a reason,
they wont just go up for "oh the economy is still bad, lets put rates up"
There would have to a sound logical reason to put rates up.

I was replying to Johnny's post about wage inflation.

If we get high wage inflation, AND high general inflation, can you relaly see rates at 0.5%?

As I say, prices are down, so all were doing is arguing semantics.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm not forgetting anything. It's still down, regardless if you want to call it stagnation or not.

Ok, let's put it another way.

You give me a list of things which will lift house prices from today.

I'll give you a list of things which are a weight on prices.

See who has the longest list.

But lists don't make markets, if it is all down acknowladge their data and admit the last quarter shows a 0.1% rise.
Really unimportant, but if the index is so correct, face the facts of the index, falls are currently narrowing yoy.

JonnyBravo

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Either we'll get interest rate rises, which wage inflation won't combat, in terms of mortgage payments.

If interest rates rose 2.5%, we'd need a hell of a lot of wage inflation to make up for the increase in monthly mortgage payments AND increase in general cost of living.

Or, we'll be called Zimbritain.

I'll go for the "zimbritain" option then.
I don't tihnk we'll see any significant (or possibly any) rate rises even if wage inflation does increase until the economy is growing strongly again.
Certainly increases of 2.5% (ie a base rate of 3%) I believe to be years away.
Inflation is the long term goal here. It's just not mentioned but the worlds Govt's will put up with 5% for a few years and do nothing to counter it IMO.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I was replying to Johnny's post about wage inflation.

If we get high wage inflation, AND high general inflation, can you relaly see rates at 0.5%?

As I say, prices are down, so all were doing is arguing semantics.

?
I think I may know that a wage spiral would cause rates to rise as I have been stating it all thread and for about 2 years now.

But from your answer you seem to suggest rates would rise, then wages would try to keep up?

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

But lists don't make markets, if it is all down acknowladge their data and admit the last quarter shows a 0.1% rise.
Really unimportant, but if the index is so correct, face the facts of the index, falls are currently narrowing yoy.

I have faced the facts, I've not disputed any of the numbers which you imply I have.

You are simply trying to get me to look at them in another way, which you wont be able to do.

You also won't provide a list as you know exactly what my point is. Lists may not make markets no. But they do prove stark reality. A reality which it's pretty obvious many want to hide away from.

Thrugelmir

JonnyBravo wrote: »

An average of 25 years is heavily skewed by one year being 30% higher than the average?
You might as well say it's being skewed by the 26% now. That's equi-distant from the average in the other direction.

In the same way that the era 1999-2007 skews the 2.9% graph.

A return to pre-boom lending standards is influencing the market.

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If we get high wage inflation,

Where's high wage inflation going to come from in the current economic squeeze?

Really2

JonnyBravo wrote: »

I'll go for the "zimbritain" option then.
I don't tihnk we'll see any significant (or possibly any) rate rises even if wage inflation does increase until the economy is growing strongly again.
Certainly increases of 2.5% (ie a base rate of 3%) I believe to be years away.
Inflation is the long term goal here. It's just not mentioned but the worlds Govt's will put up with 5% for a few years and do nothing to counter it IMO.

I agree, plug the debt black hole and cause inflation for the next growth.
Governments all over the world see it is the only way out as it will be the only way they all get paid back.
But you would think I would be bolting from my tracker if I thought that?
No, as you said it will take years of years like this year.
The only time I will shift is when we see meaningful growth, and I just don't see it on the horizon yet.