Halifax -0.5% MoM -2.3% YoY

abaxas

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Holy cow are you the actual Jo Guest?

If you are I would certainly like you to post more of your demand curves.

Ermm,

Obviously you never saw an interview with her....lets just say she wont be on the today programme soon.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You give me a list of things which will lift house prices from today.

I'll give you a list of things which are a weight on prices.

See who has the longest list.

Quanitity and quality.
One item on a list may not have the same weighting as another.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

In the same way that the era 1999-2007 skews the 2.9% graph.

A return to pre-boom lending standards is influencing the market.

What about the 1988 - 19978 period?
Isn;t that skewing the graph the other way?

The 2.9% is a reflation of the market over the previous 30 years.
It's calculated with the peaks and the troughs.

I would expect the 2.9% to lower given the 2007 - 2011 period, but only by a fraction of a percent when factored into the 30 year data.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What about the 1988 - 19978 period?
Isn;t that skewing the graph the other way?

What other way? Different financial era.

joguest

Rinoa wrote: »

Hmmm. Lots of fancy economic terms there joguest. But I'll stick to my theory that increased sales are better for prices than falling sales.

And lets just remind ourselves that back in 2009 you were going to come back and laugh at us when prices had collapsed.

Evidence for my argument: house sales and prices in Leicester for the first six months of the year (data from land registry site):

Jan-Mar Total Sales = 519, Average Price over 3 months = £116,114
Apr-Jun Total Sales = 617, Average Price over 3 months = £113,568

So, prices dropped at the same time transaction volumes went up. This almost certainly shows that the sellers in that six month period period were predominantly fearful of prices falling even further in the future (or maybe they were more forced, rather than basing their decision on sentiment). They might have been right to be fearful, they might not have been, but rising volumes do not imply rising prices.

Rinoa

joguest wrote: »

Evidence for my argument: house sales and prices in Leicester for the first six months of the year (data from land registry site):

Jan-Mar Total Sales = 519, Average Price over 3 months = £116,114
Apr-Jun Total Sales = 617, Average Price over 3 months = £113,568

So, prices dropped at the same time transaction volumes went up. This almost certainly shows that the sellers in that six month period period were predominantly fearful of prices falling even further in the future (or maybe they were more forced, rather than basing their decision on sentiment). They might have been right to be fearful, they might not have been, but rising volumes do not imply rising prices.

I think you've merely demonstrated your lack of understanding at how such statistics are compiled. Firstly, there is a time lag between sales numbers and prices. Secondly, unlike the national index, regional and city indices use 4 month rolling averages in an attempt to smooth out prices on low volumes.

In an earlier post you claimed high sales in 1995/6 had led to price falls, but by the end of 1996, HPI was 8.5%.

Jimmy_31

JonnyBravo wrote: »

What's high?

Wages ARE increasing. The settlements ARE higher than a year ago. We're now 3 years down the line from the crash.
At it's worst I got 1.5% and last year over 3%. (No role change, just yearly "inflationary" rise.) It'll only be higher again next year IMO.
I have no idea whether its QE money or whatever but wages are inflating.
It's been creeping up for ages and I can't see it changing.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/35186745#Comment_35186745

I do not know one single person who has had a wage increase in the last few years, Everybody i know in my area in my industry has had a wage freeze or cut.

The wages in the construction industry are getting worse by the day and will not be increasing for a few years at least

JonnyBravo

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

I do not know one single person who has had a wage increase in the last few years, Everybody i know in my area in my industry has had a wage freeze or cut.

The wages in the construction industry are getting worse by the day and will not be increasing for a few years at least

Yes I've read your tales of woe with interest. It seems as if some other contributors happen to know some tradesmen who are doing better than yourself. I hope your area improves soon jimmy.

It may be hard to believe but I only know 1 person who has had a wage freeze the last few years.
My Mrs! (a one year wage freeze only)

Jimmy_31

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Yes I've read your tales of woe with interest. It seems as if some other contributors happen to know some tradesmen who are doing better than yourself. I hope your area improves soon jimmy.

It may be hard to believe but I only know 1 person who has had a wage freeze the last few years.
My Mrs! (a one year wage freeze only)

The sad fact is i know tradesmen doing worse than myself and i aint doing good, good luck to the other trades earing more money though because i wouldnt wish the situation most of the lads at work are in on anybody.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I struggle to think of anything that will lift them.

I imagine that has been the case in every month they've risen since early 2009 as well.

Yet they did.;)