Halifax -0.5% MoM -2.3% YoY

Rinoa

joguest wrote: »

The land registry shows that sales volumes increased in the early part of 2008 (as prices fell). That initial sell off was then eclipsed by a sellers' strike, which actually had the effect of allowing prices to fall more freely, as the only ones left selling in the market were forced sellers. Then in early 2009, the measures introduced in the wake of the Lehman's collapse (ZIRP) helped to put a floor under the market and partially enabled the bounce. The other major factor that led to the bounce of the last couple of years was the fact that prices fell too steeply in 2008. Quite a lot of the bears were expecting prices to fall 40% - 50% (in real terms) in an unrealistic timeframe. I still contend that such commentators were right about the size of the falls, just not the length of time it will take for them to be realised.

HMRC transaction figures entering 2008:

Aug 07 - 136k
Sep 07 - 133k
Oct 07 - 125k
Nov 07 - 120k
Dec 07 - 110k
Jan 08 - 104k
Feb 08 - 100k
Mar 08 - 94k
Apl 08 - 92k
May 08 - 88k
June 08 - 77k

Completely the opposite to what you claim.

joguest

Rinoa wrote: »

HMRC transaction figures entering 2008:

Aug 07 - 136k
Sep 07 - 133k
Oct 07 - 125k
Nov 07 - 120k
Dec 07 - 110k
Jan 08 - 104k
Feb 08 - 100k
Mar 08 - 94k
Apl 08 - 92k
May 08 - 88k
June 08 - 77k

Completely the opposite to what you claim.

The Land Registry figures show prices declining with increasing sales for the early part of 2008:

January 2008 £182,626/57,256
February 2008 £182,649/61,080
March 2008 £180,719/57,246
April 2008 £180,626/61,684
May 2008 £179,759/64,531

A few smart sellers were getting out before prices fell further. Not much of a sell-off admittedly, but that's precisely why prices have still to crash. Without more periods of depreciating prices, volumes will not increase and we will never have that next boom you're dreaming of.

Rinoa

joguest wrote: »

The Land Registry figures show prices declining with increasing sales for the early part of 2008:

January 2008 £182,626/57,256
February 2008 £182,649/61,080
March 2008 £180,719/57,246
April 2008 £180,626/61,684
May 2008 £179,759/64,531

A few smart sellers were getting out before prices fell further. Not much of a sell-off admittedly, but that's precisely why prices have still to crash. Without more periods of depreciating prices, volumes will not increase and we will never have that next boom you're dreaming of.

It would appear LR only show a fraction of total transactions. HMRC give the full picture and as you can see there were no increases in volume before prices started to fall. Don't think your theory stands up to close scrutiny Jo.

joguest

These are the periods in the land registry data that have prices dropping at the same time as sales increasing (after I've put a 3 month moving average on each data-set to get rid of monthly noise):

Aug-Sep 1995
Dec 1995-Feb 1996
Jan-Feb 2008
Jun 2008-Feb 2009
Sep 2010-Feb 2011

It's still hurricane season for periods of decreasing price/increasing volume (bearing in mind that the last season probably began in 1990 and there was serious wage inflation to help make those debts go away). I suggest this season won't end until volumes are back to their long term average, with prices further down. We might see another boom after that. No doubt you'll be here in 10-15 years time to tell us that volumes are high and prices are rising.

Rinoa

joguest wrote: »

These are the periods in the land registry data that have prices dropping at the same time as sales increasing (after I've put a 3 month moving average on each data-set to get rid of monthly noise):

Aug-Sep 1995
Dec 1995-Feb 1996
Jan-Feb 2008
Jun 2008-Feb 2009
Sep 2010-Feb 2011

It's still hurricane season for periods of decreasing price/increasing volume (bearing in mind that the last season probably began in 1990 and there was serious wage inflation to help make those debts go away). I suggest this season won't end until volumes are back to their long term average, with prices further down. We might see another boom after that. No doubt you'll be here in 10-15 years time to tell us that volumes are high and prices are rising.

Jo. Your theory doesn't work. Even in the highly selective periods you've chosen you're still using LR volumes, which are not seasonally adjusted and comparing with prices that are. And as we know LR volumes are usually not much more than half total transactions as demonstrated by HMRC data.

Can't be arsked to examine all the above examples but after February 2009 prices started rising quickly. See sig.

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

They are higher than when you made your 'collapse' prediction.

Says the geezer who predicted soft landings every year since 2005.

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

Says the geezer who predicted soft landings every year since 2005.

Hi bedsit boy. Wasn't on any house price forums in 2005.

But with prices 10% from peak on the most reliable index, soft landing is what we have.

I guess that must be annoying. :j

Graham_Devon

Rinoa wrote: »

Hi bedsit boy. Wasn't on any house price forums in 2005.

But with prices 10% from peak on the most reliable index, soft landing is what we have.

I guess that must be annoying. :j

What's the most reliable index now by the way?

It seems to change.

It was the LR. But I believe that's no longer the most reliable, and the Nationwide has been chosen? Would I be correct?

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What's the most reliable index now by the way?

It seems to change.

It was the LR. But I believe that's no longer the most reliable, and the Nationwide has been chosen? Would I be correct?

None of them.

The UK housing market is made up of thousands of smaller market segments, down to a unique town, neighbourhood and even streets.

I thought we had that basic concept worked out by now.

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

None of them.

The UK housing market is made up of thousands of smaller market segments, down to a unique town, neighbourhood and even streets.

I thought we had that basic concept worked out by now.

Me too, but apparently theres the most reliable one.

I'd just like to which one this is, as I have a question.