Halifax -0.5% MoM -2.3% YoY

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

Graham, you should down the pub mate - it's Friday night and your banging on about what's the most reliable statistics!

I'm sure my 18 month old would be highly pleased if I left him to fend for himself.

And think, before you write

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm sure my 18 month old would be highly pleased if I left him to fend for himself.

Can't the mrs look after him for a while so you can nip down the road for a couple of pints?

I think you deserve it.

joguest

"But I think we can safely say your theory has zero merit. "

Are you the Queen? Who is this we you talk about?

It has zero merit because you say so. Great logic.

Rinoa

joguest wrote: »

"But I think we can safely say your theory has zero merit. "

Are you the Queen? Who is this we you talk about?

It has zero merit because you say so. Great logic.

You've attempted to compare seasonally adjusted prices with non seasonally adjusted sales data, used sales data from land registry believing it represented all sales, whereas it only accounts for 60%, failed to find any rises in volume leading to the 2008 falls and claimed your theory worked in 1996 even though that year ended with 8.5% YoY HPI.

Your theory has been shot to pieces. Let it go Jo.

joguest

Have you actually read anything i've said you complete moron?

I said that bear markets in housing are characterised by periods where volumes increase at the same time as prices falling. Therefore, a rise in volumes do not imply a concurrent rise in price.

"even though that year ended with 8.5% YoY HPI."

You used a different index to come to that conclusion and it doesn't even relate to anything I've said. Yes, after 1996 volumes increased - and here's the crucial bit you seem to be missing - BECAUSE PRICES HAD FALLEN AND WAGES HAD INFLATED.

"Your theory has been shot to pieces."

By a deluded retard.

JonnyBravo

Tut, insults after you've lost a "data war".
Oh dear jo. I was a fond admirer of your work when I was young.:eek: Indeed we spent many special moments together
No more, I suspect your bitterness nowadays is reflected internally and externally. :rotfl:

JonnyBravo

Rinoa wrote: »

Halifax themselves are considering their methodology. Not much to choose between LR and Nationwide but the latter is more current.

Nationwide is 10% off peak and LR 13%.

Not much of a crash was it.

Agree, it wasn't huge, but when you add in inflation it's edging to 20% and inflation with near nominal stagnation hasn't finished yet.

Rinoa

joguest wrote: »

I said that bear markets in housing are characterised by periods where volumes increase at the same time as prices falling.

The only bear market we have had this past 16 years was 2008.

Here are the HMRC volume transactions leading up to and during 2008.


Aug 07 - 136k
Sep 07 - 133k
Oct 07 - 125k
Nov 07 - 120k
Dec 07 - 110k
Jan 08 - 104k
Feb 08 - 100k
Mar 08 - 94k
Apl 08 - 92k
May 08 - 88k
June 08 - 77k

Every month shows a fall in volume. There is not one single volume rise to comply with your theory of 'rising volumes pre-empt falls in prices'.

joguest

Are you capable of rational debate? My insults aren't insults - they are observations based on your inability to argue coherently. And you provide another example:

'rising volumes pre-empt falls in prices'.

I have never said that rising volumes pre-empt falls in price. What I did say that prices can fall as well as rise with increases in volume and that during a bear market prices often fall with increased volume due to an increase in supply.


You are a mindless bully. Your only strategy in debate is to wind people up by distorting their arguments so they snap and then you claim victory.

I don't mind snapping though - you are a vacuous waster of oxygen.

Rinoa

joguest wrote: »

I have never said that rising volumes pre-empt falls in price. What I did say that prices can fall as well as rise with increases in volume and that during a bear market prices often fall with increased volume due to an increase in supply.

This is what you actually said:

joguest wrote: »

If you look at the land registry figures for house prices and sales volumes you'll notice that during bear markets, prices fall with increasing volume.

But that never happened in 2008, the only bear market we've had since the early 1990's.