Nice people thread part 4 - sugar and spice and all things

purch

Well I have just chatted to a chum who is into this sort of stuff.......(he has a top notch degree in Statistics from Oxford and a Phd in something similar)........although he was a carp Options trader :eek:

.....he pointed me towards a book by Frank Fabiozzi with a title he couldn't exactly remember but is something like Levy Processes and Volatility Clustering in Financial Modelling.

He has also seen a book called Stochastic Finance (Numeraire Approach) but hasn't read it.

tomterm8

Drat. I've been looking for a self help removal guide for that virus, but it doesn't look like there is one. Which is a pity, because it will take more time. Unfortunately, because there isn't a standard removal guide 'to be safe' you should post http://forums.malwarebytes.org/index.php?showforum=7 and do what they say.


What are you seeing? Are you seeing a blank screen which looks like all your files have been deleted, with a series of messages coming from the task bar?

PasturesNew

tomterm8 wrote: »

Drat. I've been looking for a self help removal guide for that virus, but it doesn't look like there is one. Which is a pity, because it will take more time. Unfortunately, because there isn't a standard removal guide 'to be safe' you should post http://forums.malwarebytes.org/index.php?showforum=7 and do what they say.


What are you seeing? Are you seeing a blank screen which looks like all your files have been deleted, with a series of messages coming from the task bar?

I see the "scanning" image exactly as shown in the bleepingcomputer link I posted earlier.

What happened was: FF closed, scan started, I thought "this isn't right" and disconnected from internet and shut PC down. Turned on PC again and no programs will launch as a pop up says it's blocked and the only thing it'd allow me to do would be to buy... except that wouldn't work anyway as it is blocking my software that gets me onto the Internet (3 dongle).

PasturesNew

I remember where I was. I was on a jewellery website, expecting to download a free PDF Risk Assessment form for Craft Show Stallholders. ... so wasn't surfing for !!!!!! or stuff
Just looked it up, it was Daisychain Jewellery Example Risk Assessment

tomterm8

PasturesNew wrote: »

I see the "scanning" image exactly as shown in the bleepingcomputer link I posted earlier.

What happened was: FF closed, scan started, I thought "this isn't right" and disconnected from internet and shut PC down. Turned on PC again and no programs will launch as a pop up says it's blocked and the only thing it'd allow me to do would be to buy... except that wouldn't work anyway as it is blocking my software that gets me onto the Internet (3 dongle).

Ah, in that case it sounds like you are good to go. These anti-virus rogues seem to be an epidemic at the moment.

The virus I got was from a writing website. I think there is a vulnerability in wordpress that is allowing people to inject drive by code at the moment. You're no longer safe even if just searching boring sites.

PasturesNew

tomterm8 wrote: »

Ah, in that case it sounds like you are good to go. These anti-virus rogues seem to be an epidemic at the moment.

The virus I got was from a writing website. I think there is a vulnerability in wordpress that is allowing people to inject drive by code at the moment. You're no longer safe even if just searching boring sites.

Yep - injections. I installed a firewall on my WP sites a few months ago, I get an email notification a couple of times a week when somebody's had a go at them.

It's a pain. Not even started to look into it yet. Laptop goes online, this was supposed to be my "one day off/not visiting the old", so might just not do it today. Any removal is a lot of faff. Belly full of nuked spud/cheese = snooze mode

tomterm8

GDB2222 wrote: »

The point is that prior to GFC (Global Financial Crash) in 2007, people tended to use fairly simple financial models for valuing things like options and for estimating risk on investment portfolios.
...

What is needed is new theory that does not rely on the normal distribution and adjusts the standard models to take into account that these extreme values are evidently much more common than we thought. Since GFC there's been ample time for new text books to be published, and I'm just asking for a suggested read.

Hope that makes more sense.

You are looking for literature in chaos theory, and complex systems. And yes, there has been some work on it, and behavioural economics, but none of the work has led to a comparable pricing theory that allows you to estimate risks on investment portfolios.

(I actually applied to study a phD on the area around 2001, but I couldn't get grant funding: the essentials are that under a chaotic system you have states called strange attractors that look like classical normal curves, but when something bumps the economy out of such a strange attractor state, it can go almost anywhere. Fun to study, but using that to predict markets is very difficult. Lots of research possibilities, few practical ones as yet).

EDIT: My mail is very entertaining at the moment. A mailing list I subscribed to yonks ago has been hacked, and everyone on it was sent an email. Then loads of people replied back to it asking why they were sending them a mail )and they replied to all). Now, literally dozens of people are emailing everyone else not to reply to the email.

Some of them are so annoyed, they are sending rude messages too

It's very funny, but I am glad I don't have a smart phone. Must be costing some people a small fortune.

GDB2222

tomterm8 wrote: »

You are looking for literature in chaos theory, and complex systems. And yes, there has been some work on it, and behavioural economics, but none of the work has led to a comparable pricing theory that allows you to estimate risks on investment portfolios.

(I actually applied to study a phD on the area around 2001, but I couldn't get grant funding: the essentials are that under a chaotic system you have states called strange attractors that look like classical normal curves, but when something bumps the economy out of such a strange attractor state, it can go almost anywhere. Fun to study, but using that to predict markets is very difficult. Lots of research possibilities, few practical ones as yet).

Thanks. I need to value some options and share plans, so I wanted to see if there's a new methodology that is generally accepted and widely used. It does not sound as though there is. That's fine, and I'll just use Black-Scholes and qualify my report.

michaels

Rumour is that there may be some whitestuff around tomorrow in the S - I hope LIR got the Lanfy fixed. One thing is for sure, First Capital Connect will be screw*d especailly as I have a 10AM meeting which is already 'tight' - may have to go to plan B and get DW to drop me at the station on the way to the kids school rather than after dropping them.

Decided not to sell the house but do have another property I would like to buy and extend preferably as a PPR with a residentila mortgage - do any NP with experience of this game think I could get consent to let on current mortgage and then buy property 2 with a resi mortgage?

The wood on the other side of the valley from my parents house was for sale a while back and at current timber prices cutting and replanting would only have broken even but given the volatility of prices it seemed that their was actually an option value in purchasing. Eventually however it sold at auction way above any valuation of the option so either it was purchased as a vanity purchase or someone thought it might eventually get planning permission.

zagubov

purch wrote: »

Yes.

It's the greatest City on earth.

I loved every minute living there, even being "mugged" in Gramercy Park after a long evening in the Tavern.


When I was there for 18 months 1989/90 the crime crackdown that Rudi Guiliani started was still in the future,

I visited it at that time (the soon-to-be-Mrs Zag lived not too far away). As the train arrived at the station the guard announced "Welcome to New York. Keep an eye on your purses and wallets!"

Had a great buzz to it. More lively than London, but, truth be told there's other cities in the UK that feel more lively than London. Didn't have the character of New Orleans, San Francisco, Philadelphia, but well worth a visit. Wouldn't feel tempted to live in the actual city long term (I've lived in central London and wasn't impressed by that) but might be alright for a few years.

It looks like we were both there at that time that European communism collapsed and the Berlin Wall etc. fell. The media reporting (or rather lack of it) told me a bit too much about America's understanding of, well, the world (very much a "kingdom of the blind" feeling)