SNP Win - The Economics of D-I-V-O-R-C-E

Chimpofdoom

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There, I bet I've bored everyone off the thread now lol ! :rotfl:

Nope, it's very valid, The natural resource base for renewables in Scotland is extraordinary by European and even global standards. This will be a massive revenue source!

The CEC will of course be trying to stop the SNP obtaining the rights to the crown estates.

Generali

Chimpofdoom wrote: »

Nope, it's very valid, The natural resource base for renewables in Scotland is extraordinary by European and even global standards. This will be a massive revenue source!

The CEC will of course be trying to stop the SNP obtaining the rights to the crown estates.

I'd hope that any assets transferred from the UK Government would be to a future Scottish one not the SNP!

Why would the Crown Estate give up private property? Would you also expect non-Scottish corporations and individuals to cede property to the state?

chewmylegoff

Chimpofdoom wrote: »

This will be a massive revenue source!

you do understand that simply making a lot of electricity isn't going to make scotland any richer than it already is? you've got to be able to sell it to someone, otherwise you are just making yourself poorer by building generation equipment to generate electricity you don't need to consume.

scotland currently exports 20% of its electricity south of the border. so currently uses 80% on its own needs.

so, population what 5.25million, you are producing enough electricity for export to fuel a country with a population of 1.3 million people. average power bill, according to google is about £500. so the retail value of that electricity might be, in today's terms about £650 million. domestic consumption is about 40% of total according to the department of energy's official statistics, so adding on the industrial/commercial market brings this up to around £1.6 billion. Say £2 billion. Scotland would be selling to england at the wholesale price. i don't know what the wholesale price is, but it will clearly be significantly less than the retail price. these numbers aren't intended to be accurate, but just to try to work out in my head, what sort of numbers we are talking about. it appears on this very rough estimate that we are talking about something under £2 billion in current revenue for scotland.

i dont see anywhere it being written that scotland is intending to increase its electricity production disproportionately with increasing domestic demand. simply that the target is to increase the % of electricity from renewables.

the scottish targets (set by the scottish parliament if i understand correctly) appear to have historically been to generate 50% of electricity from renewables by 2020. they now appear to be to ensure that by 2020, 80% of electricity consumed in scotland is generated from renewables.

this is not necessarily as big a step change as it sounds as if you are exporting 20%, then 80% of the remaining 80% that is consumed in scotland is 64% (as long as you export only fossil fuel generated electricity).

anyway, i'm starting to ramble now, but the total GDP of scotland is about £140-150 billion or something. electricity exports would appear to make up somewhere in the region of 2% of that figure. that is revenue that is already there for the scottish economy (as in substance english based electricity distributors are effectively paying scottish based power companies the money). any new revenue will have to come from somewhere.

so...where is this "massive revenue" going to come from?

the only way this is going to be a massive revenue source for scotland (for the sake of this discussion, let's use the example of oil - that is a massive revenue source) is if, in the wake of scottish independence (or even 'devolution max'), england's energy policy is to satisfy all future incremental demand by buying electricity from scotland.

somehow, whilst i can see imports of electricity from scotland increasing, i don't think it is very likely that england will deliberately put itself at the mercy of scotland to the extent that this will become an earner for scotland on the same scale (or even close to) current oil revenues.

IveSeenTheLight

chewmylegoff wrote: »

scotland currently exports 20% of its electricity south of the border. so currently uses 80% on its own needs.

so, population what 5.25million, you are producing enough electricity for export to fuel a country with a population of 1.3 million people.

Here's a link showing that by 2020, Scotland is targetting producing double the electricity it needs

http://nationbuilder.s3.amazonaws.com/snp/pages/453/attachments/original/A4_Renewables_Doc_Apr11_WEB.pdf?1303819936

Maybe you should redo your calcs to consider what is achievable if the targets are met.

P.S. Scotland are looking to hook into Mainland Europe via Norway.
We will not be solely reliant on England?
Will England be reliant on Scotland in the future for their Energy supply?

http://www.sciencenewsdaily.org/energy-news/cluster81411916/

http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/national-news/121848-plans-to-plug-scotlands-renewable-power-into-european-grid.html

pbouk

beecher2 wrote: »

England's oil - that's a good one. Your posts remind me of the nonsense Scottish Labour spouted - full of negativity and putting Scotland down. We're more than capable of running our own affairs, just like any other country. Personally I think it'd be great to be part of a country which didn't feel it had to prove itself as a superpower, and which didn't take part in illegal wars, allow rendition to take place, or bomb innocent civilians.

and free people who blow up planes that kill hundreds of ppl like scotland did eh.

IveSeenTheLight

pbouk wrote: »

and free people who blow up planes that kill hundreds of ppl like scotland did eh.

Releasing Al Megrahi was one of the worst decisions taken by the SNP in my opinion.

Despite the concerns over the trial and evidence, he was found guilty and should have died in Jail unless he was aquited due to further evidence.

As he wasn't aquited, he should have still been in Prison.

Scotland took the decision and are responsible for that, don't be deluded to think it wasn't what Westminster wanted as well.

chewmylegoff

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Here's a link showing that by 2020, Scotland is targetting producing double the electricity it needs

http://nationbuilder.s3.amazonaws.com/snp/pages/453/attachments/original/A4_Renewables_Doc_Apr11_WEB.pdf?1303819936

Maybe you should redo your calcs to consider what is achievable if the targets are met.

P.S. Scotland are looking to hook into Mainland Europe via Norway.
We will not be solely reliant on England?
Will England be reliant on Scotland in the future for their Energy supply?

http://www.sciencenewsdaily.org/energy-news/cluster81411916/

http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/national-news/121848-plans-to-plug-scotlands-renewable-power-into-european-grid.html

that's helpful.

on the basis of all that, i make the current retail value of the excess electricity scotland is projected to be producing by 2020 to be £4.8 billion in today's terms, based on a kWh price of £0.11, which i found doing a rubbish google search. if scotland was exporting all of that electricity today, that would be the retail price of it. it would receive less in the wholesale market.

what are north sea oil revenues? £30 billion per annum?

what will they be by 2020 (ex-inflation, to keep the numbers comparable to the fag packet calcuation above)? i don't know the answer to the question, by the way. i'm just saying...

it is obviously a very good thing to develop a renewable energy industry that you can then export the product of and that will produce jobs and contribute to economic growth. i'm not saying it shouldn't be done, i'm just saying it doesn't seem to be the unlimited money tree that some people are suggesting.

Shakethedisease

I'd hope that any assets transferred from the UK Government would be to a future Scottish one not the SNP!

Why would the Crown Estate give up private property? Would you also expect non-Scottish corporations and individuals to cede property to the state?

That goes without saying re future Scottish govts. The Crown Estate don't own anything though. They 'administer' it and collect the revenue from it.

The Crown Estate Commission (CEC) administers and collects the revenues of the Crown Estate - a range of property rights in Scotland including the seabed. These used to be administered in Scotland until 1832 when they were transferred to London where they have remained ever since. The Crown Estate itself was and continues to be public land defined by Scots law and under the jurisdiction of the Scottish Parliament. No less an authority that the Treasury Select Committee confirmed this very point in its report of 30 March 2010.

http://www.scotlandquovadis.net/earlier-statements/73-who-owns-scotlands-sea-bed-not-us.html

There's an inquiry going on ( UK wide but including matters related to the Scotland Bill ) at the moment over what it is exactly that they do.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12494955

pbouk

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Releasing Al Megrahi was one of the worst decisions taken by the SNP in my opinion.

Despite the concerns over the trial and evidence, he was found guilty and should have died in Jail unless he was aquited due to further evidence.

As he wasn't aquited, he should have still been in Prison.

Scotland took the decision and are responsible for that, don't be deluded to think it wasn't what Westminster wanted as well.

does not matter what westminster wanted, the buck stops with scotland they released him, their problem, their fault he lives years after release when he was supposed to be at deaths door. DONT bring westminster into it. POOR decision by SNP

Generali

Is it just me or is it a bit strange to vote for a Nationalist party that releases a person that killed lots of Scots because the English told them to. They're not very good at this Nationalism lark.