The HAMISH MCTAVISH 2011 Predictions Thread

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

So for the second year in a row, my 2010 predictions were pretty close to the mark.

Results here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=40171958&postcount=70

Lets see if we can make it 3 in a row.....:D

2011 predictions:

1. The Coalition will survive the year. Labour will continue to poll high enough, and the lib dems low enough, that nobody will risk a serious split.

2. The political narrative will change to a far more positive message. The doomers have had their day, Cameron and Osbourne know full well the clock is ticking now with a need to get the recovery going in stronger terms. There's only so long you can get away with blaming Labour for everything, and that time has passed.

3. The Tories will strong arm the banks to lend more. In order for the housing market (and the wider economy) to be rising nicely in time for the next election, the groundwork has to be laid now. We've already seen Cameron and Shapps come out and pan the banks for insufficient mortgage lending. Expect it to continue, and the pressure to keep rising until they start lending more.

4. The "Austerity Agenda" will fail--- in places like Ireland and Greece. OK, thats a bit of a no-brainer, as it's already failed, with their deficits growing in spite of austerity as revenues shrink faster than spending. But at least everyone else will see that such an experiment is doomed to failure, so the mistake is unlikely to be repeated elsewhere.

5. BOEBR will remain at or below 1% all year. A token rise is possible if the bank lose their nerve, but it won't be meaningful. There will be no change to QE. Existing QE will not be withdrawn.

6. There will be no double dip recession.

7. House prices will continue to fluctuate mildly. Small falls over winter, small rises in spring & summer. They'll end the year somewhere in a range from +2% to -3% from now.

8. Scottish and Aberdeen prices will reach another new peak in 2011, to exceed the new peak set in 2010. Aberdeen prices will exceed 2007's peak plus 5%.

9. Oil will cross $100 a barrel, and the world won't end.

10. The Eurozone will continue to have problems, but will survive. The sovereign debt crisis will be averted through ongoing bailouts. Collective self interest will prevail.

11. Unemployment will peak at 2.75 million, private sector job growth will pick up the slack from public sector cuts. There will be no mass redundancies, most will be done through natural attrition, and public sector losses will end up being less than currently projected due to better than expected economic figures.

12. UK economic recovery will continue, and will in fact be slightly better than currently expected.


So there you have it.

The 2011 HAMISH MCTAVISH predictions laid bare for future adoration or ridicule.

Now what are yours......;)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And I almost forgot......

13. (which has been unlucky for me so far, so perhaps appropriate)

Gold and Silver will crash.

Now to be fair to all the goldbugs, the've been right so far and I've been wrong, but that doesn't change the fact that gold and silver are in the bubble to end all bubbles. If you're very good, or very lucky, you can of course make money riding a bubble. It might burst this year, it might burst next year, but it is going to burst.

And when they crash, they'll crash hard and fast, and the goldbugs will get wiped out for all the very reasons they think they won't.

Edit: I'm even going to go out on a limb here, and argue the opposite of what most of them do. If you MUST hold gold, for the love of god don't hold physical. So much gold is traded electronically these days that the plunge, when it happens, will be so fast as to be eye watering. You simply won't have time to get out if you're holding physical gold, and even worse silver, as nobody will touch it with a bargepole until the dust clears.

PM's are a speculative commodity like any other, and one day soon the bugs will find out just how much of todays price is speculative. (80% plus IMO)

Thrugelmir

4. The "Austerity Agenda" will fail--- in places like Ireland and Greece. OK, thats a bit of a no-brainer, as it's already failed, with their deficits growing in spite of austerity as revenues shrink faster than spending. But at least everyone else will see that such an experiment is doomed to failure, so the mistake is unlikely to be repeated elsewhere.

So the alternative is......... ?

purch

So the alternative is......... ?

I'm not sure Hamish wants any input to this thread.

It appears to be (yet another attempt) to inflate his already over inflated ego.

Mr_Mumble

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

9. Oil will cross $100 a barrel, and the world won't end.

Really going out on a limb there McTish.

Brent LCOc1, the benchmark for oil trade in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, rose as much as 96 cents to $98.57, the highest in 27 months, and was up 91 cents at $98.52 at 1601 GMT. U.S. crude CLc1 added $1.03 to $92.14.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKL3E7CC0B820110112

PS. Your blind spot on austerity is as bad as the Labour party's. The Irish government spent tens of billions of Euros more in 2010 than 2009. That is not austerity.

Thrugelmir

purch wrote: »

I'm not sure Hamish wants any input to this thread.

It appears to be (yet another attempt) to inflate his already over inflated ego.

Very safe predictions. Surprisingly so.

What or where will be the surprise(s) in 2011?

gagahouse

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And I almost forgot......

13. (which has been unlucky for me so far, so perhaps appropriate)

Gold and Silver will crash.

Now to be fair to all the goldbugs, the've been right so far and I've been wrong, but that doesn't change the fact that gold and silver are in the bubble to end all bubbles. If you're very good, or very lucky, you can of course make money riding a bubble. It might burst this year, it might burst next year, but it is going to burst. - which is it, either this year or next year, can't be both, not much of a prediction - and "will" is not the same as "might", you don't seem to have much conviction about this prediction

And when they crash, they'll crash hard and fast, and the goldbugs will get wiped out for all the very reasons they think they won't.

Edit: I'm even going to go out on a limb here, and argue the opposite of what most of them do. If you MUST hold gold, for the love of god don't hold physical. So much gold is traded electronically these days that the plunge, when it happens, will be so fast as to be eye watering. You simply won't have time to get out if you're holding physical gold, as nobody will touch it with a bargepole until the dust clears.

PM's are a speculative commodity like any other, and one day soon the bugs will find out just how much of todays price is speculative. (80% plus IMO)

How do you think physical gold is sold, you take your bars to some central market hoping someone will take it off your hands? :rotfl:

There is no difference in the process of selling physical or paper, you pick up the phone to your market maker (or click your mouse) and sell it either at market or limit price. You don't seem to understand why some prefer to hold physical over paper, you don't as a buyer face counterparty risk when the gold is in your possession unlike paper. You also assume every gold investor is simplistic and none of them hedge with options for example, why would they rush for the doors with their physical if they were 2 delta hedged with a put?.

Gold will decline when real interest rates turn positive, if you believe base rates will remain low (1% with inflation 3-4%) then how can you believe gold will crash? You need to understand the relationship between real interest rates and gold a bit better before making such predictions.





btw, I don't own any gold

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Mr_Mumble wrote: »

Really going out on a limb there McTish.

LOL..... The key point is that the world won't end.

Despite the protestations of so many that $100 oil is a tipping point back into recession, it just isn't.

PS. Your blind spot on austerity is as bad as the Labour party's. The Irish government spent tens of billions of Euros more in 2010 than 2009. That is not austerity.

Ireland slashed and burned their way through the public sector, pay cuts, the works.

And it's done them no good at all, as revenue dropped away faster than they could save.

Although to be fair, their fate was sealed the moment they allowed their housing market to tank by 40%... :cool:

They should have stopped building houses years ago.... A 17% oversupply was never going to end well.

And when they realised it was toppling, they should have bulldozed every empty house in the country. Still, at least it serves as a timely reminder to the rest of us.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Very safe predictions. Surprisingly so.

If you think they're safe, then I'm surprised to see you agree there won't be any significant fall in house prices, nor significant rise in base rates.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

purch wrote: »

I'm not sure Hamish wants any input to this thread.

Crack on then purchy, lets see your predictions.

Or is sniping from the sidelines more your thing.....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Dirk_Rambo wrote: »

i predicts that in twelfth months time you hameesh will still be posting the same ole rubbish on mse

And I predict that in 12 months time you'll still be trying to disguise your sock puppetry carol.