The HAMISH MCTAVISH 2011 Predictions Thread

N1AK

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If were really going on this basis, i.e something you said was right in one place, somewhere, I was right when I said 35% down on house prices too.

Afterall, they did, in Ireland.

If you keep expecting Hamish to have to validate his claims against real world measures, instead of his active imagination, you're going to be very dissapointed

Anyone who can think they did well, while being outside of the 5% house price range they predicted, and trying to ignore that the final figure for that index isn't even in yet isn't going to prioritise reason.

The final Land Registry figure is likely to be somewhere from 1.5-2% for 2010, which makes Hamishes estimated range 150%-533% of the correct figure.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes.

Prices will dip over winter, rise again next summer, and no matter what they do geneer would still have been many tens of thousands better off buying years ago.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Whoops. I'm guessing you missed the part where
ESPC has repeatedly stated that the summer "Boom" was strictly due to statistical noise in the failing market.

Strange, cos I've pointed it out to you a number of times.

Or maybe you're referring to Aberdooms "seasonal fluctuations" of tens of thousands of points. An "seasonal" event strangely absent
prior to 2008. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Really2

Generali wrote: »

and the world won't end.

If your wrong I won't pull you up on it.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You said that last year.

Its funny. A lot of bulls are “calling” the win last year because of their regular annual “soft landing” prediction © 2004.

Apparently, houseprices increasing significantly then dropping significantly
is the same as house prices “not changing all that much during the year”

Batchy

2011 predictions:

1. The Coalition will survive the year in fact the term IMO

2. Labour have already been blamed, condems will use this as an opportunity to turn this around, or face political suicide for trying and failing, it HAS to work

3. Tories will continue to support the banks so long as they support the economy rather than shareholders who wouldnt have a bean if it wasnt for a bail out.

4. The "Austerity Agenda" will fail in the short term, but long term everyone will realise it was the right thing to do, as China is beginning to limit growth in their country where possible

5. BOEBR will remain stable, with possibly a token 0-25% increase in September/ October 2011, to show things are looking up, and send out the right positivity, and the strength of the economy to be able to do it

6. There will be no double dip recession, but very slow growth, it had its chance, we probably have labour to thank for holding back on pubic sector cuts, until there was a private sector recovery (everyone gets their turn).

7. House prices will continue to fluctuate mildly. Small falls over winter, small rises in spring & summer. They'll end the year somewhere in a range from 0 to -2% from now (land registry).

8. No idea about scotland, however, there football team will continue to under perform

9. Oil will rise, as its currently in a bubble, but in my local environment, its thought it will stabalise somewhat around 60 to 70 dollars a barrel over the long term. There is overcapacity in a lot of markets, people WILL use less fuel, etc.

10. The Eurozone will still retain the Euro, and Germany will try to strengthen their position.

11. Unemployment will peak at in Q3 2011, private sector job growth will pick up the slack from public sector cuts. nothing to see here. Most will be through natural loss, retirement, but with more receiving a payout now, than in the past, due to law changes regarding compulsory retirement.

12. UK economic recovery will continue, but slowly.

13. One premiership or ex football team during 2011/12 will go into administration.

Really2

geneer wrote: »

Apparently, houseprices increasing significantly then dropping significantly
is the same as house prices “not changing all that much during the year”

Did house prices go up and down significantly last year? I thought I would have seen that TBH.

When was the last time house price went up by less or down by less than last year?

Many predicted a Yoy stagnation year while prices were still rising so I think many had factored in a falling off or they would have predicted a rise?

Here is the one I did
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2068977
I don't think any of us were asking for monthly breakdowns then

Yakubu22

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

They should have stopped building houses years ago.... A 17% oversupply was never going to end well.

And when they realised it was toppling, they should have bulldozed every empty house in the country. Still, at least it serves as a timely reminder to the rest of us.

Hamish's approach to saving Ireland. Knock down every empty house. :T

geneer

Really2 wrote: »

Did house prices go up and down significantly last year? I thought I would have seen that TBH.

When was the last time house price went up by less or down by less than last year?

Many predicted a Yoy stagnation year while prices were still rising so I think many had factored in a falling off or they would have predicted a rise?

Here is the one I did
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2068977
I don't think any of us were asking for monthly breakdowns then

Depends.

Nationwide show house prices spiking up about 7K then falling back.

Halifax pretty much showed consistent falls of about 7K.

Land reg went up a few grand then went down a few grand.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And just earlier today you were complaining about how much you miss me.

Well we missed you here Spamish. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2945626=

Really2

geneer wrote: »

Depends.

Nationwide show house prices spiking up about 7K then falling back.

Halifax pretty much showed consistent falls of about 7K.

Land reg went up a few grand then went down a few grand.

I would look at them again, halifax would be about 4% down YOY for that to be right

So as percentages go where they significant, or was it a fairly stable year historically?