Uber-Bear Wakes Up and Smells Coffee, Prices Heading UP

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

House building grinding to a halt?

Not round my way.

Anyway nice to see Daddybear conceding that we're likely to get stagnation and not a significant correction. Because he's now agreeing with Hamish and the other "bulls" here completely.

Move along folks, nothing to see here. We all agree.

Actually the next argument is about whether we get nominal stagnation or real terms stagnation. I'm going for real terms stagnation myself, because I think prices will drift up with wages as we navigate a shallow second dip and get back to something approaching proper recovery.

I'm going for falls myself.

Just makes, well, more sense

Pimperne1

Doctor_Gloom wrote: »

FYI I've never been on HPC. I'd never even have heard of it if it hadn't been for HPC rejects like you and Hamish mentioning the site every 5 minutes.

That someone could actually thank you for this post!

luvpump

Ime confused by the O/P, & have a look in here occasionaly... but is your life so sad as to spend all day.... every day ! Trying to win a few arguments here ? I mean, there cant be enough people visit this site to make a ha'peth of differences ? I really dont get it :think:

nearlynew

luvpump wrote: »

Ime confused by the O/P, & have a look in here occasionaly... but is your life so sad as to spend all day.... every day ! Trying to win a few arguments here ? I mean, there cant be enough people visit this site to make a ha'peth of differences ? I really dont get it :think:

That's junkies for you.

Whether it's drink, drugs, gambling, debt or whatever.

They lose all sense of reality.

Pimperne1

luvpump wrote: »

Ime confused by the O/P, & have a look in here occasionaly... but is your life so sad as to spend all day.... every day ! Trying to win a few arguments here ? I mean, there cant be enough people visit this site to make a ha'peth of differences ? I really dont get it :think:

Yeah but not many of us have joined twice?

FATBALLZ

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Don't forget they have to rebuild their property every 25 years due to living very near a Tectonic Plate

I've heard this one before, have you got a source? Presumably the frequency of rebuilding depends how many actual earthquakes they get and the strength and proximity of them. And haven't building standards increased over the years to make property more resistent to earthquakes?

Graham_Devon

FATBALLZ wrote: »

I've heard this one before, have you got a source? Presumably the frequency of rebuilding depends how many actual earthquakes they get and the strength and proximity of them. And haven't building standards increased over the years to make property more resistent to earthquakes?

In other countries they have learnt to put their houses on stilts.

You'd think the japanese would have figured to put theirs on springs*

* Patent pending

IveSeenTheLight

FATBALLZ wrote: »

I've heard this one before, have you got a source? Presumably the frequency of rebuilding depends how many actual earthquakes they get and the strength and proximity of them. And haven't building standards increased over the years to make property more resistent to earthquakes?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=japan+property+lifespan

or have a look here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_in_Japan

The taxable value of a house is controlled by its building material. Wooden houses are considered to have a lifespan of twenty years, and concrete ones to have a lifespan of thirty years, and the assessed price depreciates each year contrary to housing markets in other nations. Most real estate agents also use this pricing policy as a rough guide.

hopefully this will help put to bed those that wish to compare the UK house prices to Japans

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

hopefully this will help put to bed those that wish to compare the UK house prices to Japans

Good find ISTL.....

From the source.

As houses age, owners replace them. A common pattern is to rebuild on the same site. To accomplish this, the occupants move to a temporary residence. A contractor demolishes the old structure and builds a new one on the grounds. The residents can then return to the location. Not having moved, they enjoy the convenience of keeping the same address, telephone number, and utility accounts, as well as avoid the cost of purchasing new land.

Because of the wooden construction and relatively short lifespan of Japanese houses, this is often considered cheaper than maintaining the old structure.

And even with the "wooden construction and relatively short lifespan" of Japanese houses, Tokyo housing is STILL more expensive than London, even after 90% falls over 20 years since their peak.

the_flying_pig

this thing about the japanese having to rebuild houses every X years or whatever is a complete red herring.


japan was no nearer or further a tectonic plate than it is now prior to the start of their real estate bubble in the mid 80s.

japan was no nearer or further a tectonic plate than it is now during their real estate bubble.

japan was no nearer or further a tectonic plate than it is now in the down phase after their real estate bubble.


the japanese situation was a credit bubble pure and simple. fluctuations in the amount of credit drove both the boom and the bust. its climate and geography were a constant throughout.