Uber-Bear Wakes Up and Smells Coffee, Prices Heading UP

Chris2685

I know saying 'round my way' is not looked up on too fondly around here. But none the less:

Round my way, there is absolutely loooads of new houses being built, and a whole bunch still sat on the market within 10 miles of here.

Rightmove shows 370 properties, and a lot of those are 1 listing for a whole development of flats or houses.

So, I am not sure that the 'not building much' argument is quite as true. Provide me some up to date figures to prove it, and I'll believe ya

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/High-Wycombe.html?sortByPriceDescending=false&radius=10.0&newHome=true

IveSeenTheLight

Chris2685 wrote: »

I know saying 'round my way' is not looked up on too fondly around here. But none the less:

Round my way, there is absolutely loooads of new houses being built, and a whole bunch still sat on the market within 10 miles of here.

Rightmove shows 370 properties, and a lot of those are 1 listing for a whole development of flats or houses.

So, I am not sure that the 'not building much' argument is quite as true. Provide me some up to date figures to prove it, and I'll believe ya

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/High-Wycombe.html?sortByPriceDescending=false&radius=10.0&newHome=true

This surely can be viewed as good news for your local area.

Certainly there are an abundance of articles relating to not enough properties being built

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/article7111819.ece

http://www.jrf.org.uk/media-centre/shortage-homes-over-next-20-years-threatens-deepening-housing-crisis

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/01/affordable-housing-cuts-nhf

http://www.uklanddirectory.org.uk/land-for-sale-prices-shortage.asp

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk-property-will-a-change-in-the-law-leave-britain-short-of-houses-49116.aspx

http://www.ludlowthompson.com/property_news/article.htm?id=441

http://www.ludlowthompson.com/property_news/article.htm?id=441

and there are loads more.
Just go to this link to see all the above and more
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=uk+property+shortage

Chris2685

Aye, but is there a none-media data source for it? I am genuinely interested as I like to validate all my facts usually.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Chris2685 wrote: »

Aye, but is there a none-media data source for it? I am genuinely interested as I like to validate all my facts usually.

Source is listed as ONS.

Feel free to check.

Emy1501

When are people going to accept that new houses are not being built at the rate they should be due to the fact that not enough people want to buy them? I know someone who has reserved 2 plots only for builders to later cancel the builds due to the fact they could not sell enough plots.

If people wanted to buy or could afford to buy the newbuilds they would be built.

Chris2685

I can't seem to find any figures for new build housing on the ONS website, anyone else found anything? The population figure looks about right though.

Chris2685

Emy1501 wrote: »

When are people going to accept that new houses are not being built at the rate they should be due to the fact that not enough people want to buy them? I know someone who has reserved 2 plots only for builders to later cancel the builds due to the fact they could not sell enough plots.

If people wanted to buy or could afford to buy the newbuilds they would be built.

Maybe that says something about affordability then? I'd love to buy a new build if it was priced at a level I could afford.

IveSeenTheLight

Chris2685 wrote: »

Aye, but is there a none-media data source for it? I am genuinely interested as I like to validate all my facts usually.

Why not try using a search facility such as www.google.co.uk then?

anyway, why not look at this from the Office of National Statistics (non media)

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1400509.pdf
this shows

Since 1968 the level of house building has declined, with smaller peaks in 1976 and 1988

Between 2007 and 2008, new build completions decreased by 19 per cent, from 175,000 to

142,000 (Table 2.6)

All regions experienced a decrease in completions between financial year 2007-08 and financial year

2008-09 (Charts 2.3a-c)


Table 2.1:

House building: permanent dwellings started and completed, by tenure1, England

Number of dwellings
Started Completed
Registered Registered
Financial Private Social Local

All Private Social Local All

Year Enterprise Landlords Authorities

Dwellings Enterprise Landlords Authorities Dwellings

1998-99 129,660 17,550 130

147,330 121,190 18,890 180 140,260

1999-00 132,540 15,940 150

148,630 124,470 17,270 60 141,800

2000-01 128,600 12,840 210

141,650 116,640 16,430 180 133,260

2001-02 138,850 11,060 120

150,020 115,700 14,100 60 129,870

2002-03 139,690 10,910 160

150,760 124,460 13,080 200 137,740

2003-04 148,770 12,350 280

161,390 130,100 13,670 190 143,960

2004-05 159,950 14,390 210

174,540 139,130 16,660 100 155,890

2005-06 167,430 17,230 250

184,910 144,940 18,160 300 163,400

2006-07 155,240 16,850 200

172,290 145,680 21,750 250 167,680

2007-08

R 140,420 15,810 200 156,430 144,740 23,100 300 168,140
2008-09 P 71,160 18,850 310 90,320 107,710 25,550 570 133,830

The number of households in England is projected to grow to 27.8 million in 2031, an increase of 6.3 million (29 per cent) over the 2006 estimate, or an average 252,000 households per year

(Table 4.1);

By 2031, 18 per cent of the total population of England is projected to live alone, compared with 13 per cent in 2006. One person households are projected to increase on average by 163,000 per year, accounting for two-thirds of the increase in households (

Table 4.1);

Look at this for household estimates


and compare it with the build rates.
http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1692346.pdf



http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/ehs200809headlinereport

Overcrowding was highest in the rented sectors: 6.7 per cent of social rented households and 5.4 per cent of private rented households were overcrowded as measured by the bedroom standard. In contrast, only 1.6 per cent of owner occupiers were overcrowded.

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1479789.pdf

The overall rate of overcrowding in England for 2008-09 was 3.0% (see Table 6). This compares to the previously published estimate of 2.8% (averaged over the period 2005-06 to 2007-08). There were around 654,000 overcrowded households (compared to an average of 570,000 over the period 2005-06 to 2007-08). Levels of overcrowding varied considerably by tenure and were lowest in the owner occupied sector at 1.6%, up from 1.4% for the period 2005-06 to 2007-08. Around 6.7% of social renters were overcrowded and 5.4% of private renters, compared to 5.9% and 4.9% respectively for 2005-06 to 2007-08

I've not even went into the nett migration affect.

If you do the search, there are pleant of non media articles which will show you the population and building stats

Chris2685

Thanks mate, I really didn't search that thoroughly I must admit, I fancied a cuppa.

Looks like the number of new building projects starting is rising though, which is interesting. Still no where near previous levels though.

It all really points to prices being too high I guess, people can't afford to buy at these prices, so builders are not building at these prices.

All in all very interesting stuff. It will be interesting to see where it will go from here.

IveSeenTheLight

Chris2685 wrote: »

It all really points to prices being too high I guess, people can't afford to buy at these prices, so builders are not building at these prices.

While it is true that builders reduce their supply in order to achieve higher prices, they restrict their supply to maintain their CM.

If you took the cost price to build a property, there is still a large margin that the builders could reduce if they wanted to to lower prices.

Problem is that it's not in their business interests to do so.

Looking at the infomraiton provided and more available on the net, what do you think will happen with an increasing population and not enough properties being built to service that population increase?