Uber-Bear Wakes Up and Smells Coffee, Prices Heading UP

Graham_Devon

the_flying_pig wrote: »

this thing about the japanese having to rebuild houses every X years or whatever is a complete red herring.

It doesn't stack up anyway.

Do you see Tokyo demolishing high rise buildings everywhere as they reach 25 years old?

Of course not.

The houses talked about are outside of tokyo, dodgy structures anyway. So absolutely no point referencing tokyo prices when talking about rebuilding every 25 years. The two things are completely seperate entitites. Different homes, different people, different areas.

tomterm8

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Market Oracle has always been a laughing stock.

All of a sudden, it's somewhat trendy and bang on.

Wonder why that is?

Market Oracle has been wrong more often than right. It's like the economist front page, a definite negative indicator.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It doesn't stack up anyway.

Do you see Tokyo demolishing high rise buildings everywhere as they reach 25 years old?

Of course not.

The houses talked about are outside of tokyo, dodgy structures anyway. So absolutely no point referencing tokyo prices when talking about rebuilding every 25 years. The two things are completely seperate entitites. Different homes, different people, different areas.

I responded to the Japan housing market, giving a direct quote to Japan as a whole.

Your focus on Tokyo is like saying the rest of the UK doesn't matter, just look at London.

IveSeenTheLight

the_flying_pig wrote: »

the japanese situation was a credit bubble pure and simple. fluctuations in the amount of credit drove both the boom and the bust. its climate and geography were a constant throughout.

I;m not denying there was a bubble in the Japanese market, just pointing out the fundamental difference as to why prices in Japan don't react the same as the UK.

My link even stated that the Japanese property market price depreciates contrary to housing markets in other nations.

the assessed price depreciates each year contrary to housing markets in other nations

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Your focus on Tokyo is like saying the rest of the UK doesn't matter, just look at London.

It's not my focus. I was making the same point that you now are...

It's this...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Good find ISTL.....

From the source.

And even with the "wooden construction and relatively short lifespan" of Japanese houses, Tokyo housing is STILL more expensive than London, even after 90% falls over 20 years since their peak.

FATBALLZ

the_flying_pig wrote: »

this thing about the japanese having to rebuild houses every X years or whatever is a complete red herring.


japan was no nearer or further a tectonic plate than it is now prior to the start of their real estate bubble in the mid 80s.

japan was no nearer or further a tectonic plate than it is now during their real estate bubble.

japan was no nearer or further a tectonic plate than it is now in the down phase after their real estate bubble.


the japanese situation was a credit bubble pure and simple. fluctuations in the amount of credit drove both the boom and the bust. its climate and geography were a constant throughout.

I agree it is interesting but I don't see the relevance. Surely when the house is rebuilt after 25 years it then goes back up to it's peak value. I think it's fair to assume that not all Japanese houses were built in the same year, so at any given time you will have more or less x number of 25 year old houses, x number of 24 year old houses, x number of 23 year old houses .... x number of 0 year old houses.

So while an individual house may lose value, the countrywide average should not be affected by the nature of Japanese house rebuilding. Unless we are suggesting that no or few new houses are being rebuilt, so that there is an increasingly lower proportion of the more valuable newer houses making up the average.

the_flying_pig

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I;m not denying there was a bubble in the Japanese market, just pointing out the fundamental difference as to why prices in Japan don't react the same as the UK.

My link even stated that the Japanese property market price depreciates contrary to housing markets in other nations.

You're not making any point at all.

Short-lived housing [I've been to both Tokyo and Kyoto & saw relatively little of this but it may well be common in rural areas] would undoubtedly be a reason why a particular house would depreciate in value [and then appreciate hugely after 25 years when it gets rebuilt again] but I don't see how it can tell you anything about trends in land values.

Presumably in 1985 {pre bubble} the houses in Japan were a mix of new and old [e.g. if the average life was 25 yrs then 4% might be 1 year old, 4% might be 2 years old, 4% might be 3 years old,...{etc}..., and 4% 25 years old].

And the mix is surely now much the same?

So differences in prices between now and then would surely have nothing to do with property ages?

[edit - fatballz beat me to it, posting much the same thing as me. great minds think alike. although TBH it doesn't take the brains of an archbishop to spot the obvious flaw in what ISTL is saying]

chucky

are people still trying to compare the UK to Japan - it's been explained to them so many times now but they still don't get it...

tut, tut, that will teach them to be educated in Devon...

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's not my focus. I was making the same point that you now are...

It's this...

Graham_Devon wrote:

Originally Posted by the flying pig
this thing about the japanese having to rebuild houses every X years or whatever is a complete red herring.

It doesn't stack up anyway.

Do you see Tokyo demolishing high rise buildings everywhere as they reach 25 years old?

Of course not.

The houses talked about are outside of tokyo, dodgy structures anyway. So absolutely no point referencing tokyo prices when talking about rebuilding every 25 years. The two things are completely seperate entitites. Different homes, different people, different areas.

Graham, you replied to a comment on the japanese market and then focussed on Tokyo.
If you had kept to the reply to the post you made then you would not have fallen foul to the same error you point Hamish out for.

IveSeenTheLight

the_flying_pig wrote: »

Presumably in 1985 {pre bubble} the houses in Japan were a mix of new and old [e.g. if the average life was 25 yrs then 4% might be 1 year old, 4% might be 2 years old, 4% might be 3 years old,...{etc}..., and 4% 25 years old].

And the mix is surely now much the same?

So differences in prices between now and then would surely have nothing to do with property ages?

You make a fair point, but then I've already conceded there was a bubble in proprty in Japan.
That doesn't retract from the same issues may have been there before and now. It's simply reasonioning why their market is different to the UK.

the_flying_pig wrote: »

[edit - fatballz beat me to it, posting much the same thing as me. great minds think alike[edit] fools seldom differ

. although TBH it doesn't take the brains of an archbishop to spot the obvious flaw in what ISTL is saying][/QUOTE]

As for my apparent flaw, I'm simply reporting details which is out there in the WWW. You can choose to ignore them or not