Lib Dem Support down to 12%....

RJP33

Bu they're a minority partner who haven't had power in nearly a century, why would anyone expect anything else?

tomterm8

Generali wrote: »

Why do you think that please?

AFAICS they have no financial or geographic base. The Lib Dems are slowly dying and have been for as long as I can remember.

People have now seen the reality of voting for a minority partner in a Government and they don't like it.

I am often wrong, but if you ask for my reasoning, I'll give it to you.

A lot of it comes from historical trends, and a basic theory about how things are likely to go over the next 15 years. I expect the Tory party to win the next election, but I believe there are fundamental changes to the UK economy. I think recessions are going to be more frequent than during the great moderation, and recoveries are going to be more lackluster.

Will people hate the lib dems? At the next election they will. Certainly. If they get 12% of the vote I would be surprised. I expect them to get 7% of the vote. But the next government and the one after that will have problems. You only need to look at the US to see that in 2 years, people have forgotten the mess the Republicans left the US in.

I fully expect a period of disillusion with politics. I expect whichever parties get in next election will not have a clear run at things, and that protest voters will be protesting. And the traditional focus of the protest vote is the Lib Dems - of course, they may have a different name by then. But they will be the same people.


Historically, first past the post has stopped the protest vote party picking up many seats. But under AV, I expect them to be able to start picking up seats as the least unpleasant option.

In 15 years time, people will have forgotten the Lib Dems as the slimy party, it only took the US 2 years to forget Bush.

Mrs_Bones

I can see what you mean about people forgetting the past mistakes of political parties when protesting against a current party but I'm wondering if the Lib Dems will even exist as a party in 15 years. They are going to have to be very strong to stick together and survive the next 15 years and I'm not sure they are that strong, or if some will break away and new parties will be formed.

Politicians in general from the three main parties are not trusted and if and it's a big if, the AV voting reform goes through it might help other smaller parties more than the Lib Dems. Look at the so called Tea Party in the USA no one could have imagined how that would take off as it did in a fairly short space of time. If a smaller party in the UK somehow started to attract the attentions of the population who are disenchanted by the current three main parties, the Lib Dems could find they are not even considered the third party as starting from such a low base point of popularity others could overtake them.

StevieJ

RJP33 wrote: »

I would have thought you'd be ecstatic that the Lib Dems finally will implement some of their manifesto?

Or would you rather they we're permanently in opposition with no actual say?

I would rather they didn't lie to the electorate, especially students in university cities.

Loughton_Monkey

tomterm8 wrote: »

Will people hate the lib dems? At the next election they will. Certainly. If they get 12% of the vote I would be surprised. I expect them to get 7% of the vote. But the next government and the one after that will have problems. You only need to look at the US to see that in 2 years, people have forgotten the mess the Republicans left the US in.

Having had a taste of 'office', I can see quite a dramatic turn of events when we approach the next election. Yes, Lib Dems will be rock bottom because of the general mood.

But wait and see how many jump ship to the other side(s). If, say, Labour are a dead cert, then how many little Lib-Dem weasels in lower office will defect on the promise of a job? Same if Torys are ahead.

I can hear it now. Speech by Cleggy. "...honour to serve the country in the current administration.... learned to respect Cameron and colleagues.... believe I can only serve the country best by continuing to support Conservatives... we are in a different world with modern challenges... "

Come back Charles Kennedy. All is forgiven...

shaggydoo

Sorry I have not read the whole thread but there was a You Gov Poll on the 3rd Nov that put the LIb Dems on 9% :eek: There has also been a big shift away from the coalition in the last week. Maybe this is due to student loans?

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

baby_boomer wrote: »

If LibDem support is really down to 12% and stays there, then the new proposed AV voting system isn't going to help them at all in 2015 - even assuming it gets through Parliament.

The Lib Dems needed Labour supporters to get this change through. Fat Chance of that.

Butterfly_Brain

I'm not surprised in the least .
The Lib-Dems have shown that they have no backbone to fight their Tory Lords and Masters and Kow Tow to everything that the Tories propose. If they had any sense of Democracy they would fight :mad: :mad:

markharding557

The outrageous increases in student fees is the icing in the cake they should be ashamed

lemonjelly

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-black-country-11798056

I know it is only a council election, but the national front beat them to third place.:eek:

It is getting worse for them.