House prices fall 0.6% in June Halifax

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I meant base rates. Mortgage rates are down, yes, but in a lot of cases, so is the LTV. Swings and roundabouts. But in line with talking about economic policy which I was talking at the time, I was talking base rates.

And you know that the base rates mean very little when relating to mortgage rates.
However the gap is narrowing across all the LTV ranges, good news for anyone looking to borrow / remortgage.

Also an indicator that the lenders believe the risk in BoE rates rising is lowering

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

And you know that the base rates mean very little when relating to mortgage rates.
However the gap is narrowing across all the LTV ranges, good news for anyone looking to borrow / remortgage.

Also an indicator that the lenders believe the risk in BoE rates rising is lowering

Of course base rates mean little when related to mortgage rates.

But then VAT rises have no direct impact on house prices. Doesn't stop them having an indirect impact. Base rates are just the same.

And that, my friend, is the last explanation I'm giving on this thread...it's getting far too tiresome being picked up on absolutely everything and having to explain it. I didn't even mention mortgage rates, and I find myself having to explain that I understand the relation on that too.

I think my next post will be a long drawn out effort, explaining everything said in the smallest of detail Probably be a spelling mistake to pick up on though.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Always be forced sellers. The three D's see to that.

obviously.............

if there are not a large numbers of forced sellers there ain't going to be no big house price falls...

dream on those that are expecting them.

angrypirate

Anyone else notice - Hamish is very quiet this morning....

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I think this is a case simply of interpretating things in different ways.

A positive number can still see a trend down in my opinion. Otherwise, the whole point of trends goe's completely out of the window.

Take retail. How on earth could they ever say sales were down, if, as you say, a positive cannot show a trend down. They would only have to make one single sale in a month, and they could never say sales are down.

Which, as you can see, is, well, rather ridiculous.

The trend, at the moment, over a few months, is down. Positive numbers or not.

Oh god, we are back into pointless, and needless explanations of anything said

Not really, the rate of rises declining would suffice.
I personally do not see rises as a downward trend. Maybe that is just how I look at things.

But anyway still looking at stagnation to me.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

But then VAT rises have no direct impact on house prices. Doesn't stop them having an indirect impact. Base rates are just the same.

No need to go down the route most of your post was aiming at

Could you please explain for my benefit how BoE rates have an indirect affect on mortgage rates..
I do understand that many on SVR's are linked to the BOE base rate, however I also showed that mortgage rates are lowering, closing the gap on the BoE rate.

Let's face it, having a 5 year fix from 4.19% is historically pretty good.
Has it been better previously.

Again I reitterate, is this an idicator of what the lenders perception is of the BoE base rate over the next 5 years.

angrypirate

Really2 wrote: »

Not really, the rate of rises declining would suffice.
I personally do not see rises as a downward trend. Maybe that is just how I look at things.

But anyway still looking at stagnation to me.

Show me a time in history when house prices have bee completely stagnant - other than the points of inflextion (ie at the bottom and at the top).

Oh, hang on, its different this time.

phlash

chucky wrote: »

obviously.............

if there are not a large numbers of forced sellers there ain't going to be no big house price falls...

dream on those that are expecting them.

chucky, I don't know what your background is but you are gravely misinformed.

There are many factors to consider, and your approach is one dimensional, probably blinded by an emotional attachment to continued house price rises.

Forced sellers are collectively a single cog situated in a complex machine, house price falls will not be dependent on this cog alone.

Here is another cog for you, but I'll let you work it out...

Question 1) How much of our GDP is reliant on public sector spending?
Question 2) What % cuts to public sector spending do you forsee or know of?
Question 3) What effect will this have on GDP?
Question 4) Is there any correlation between GDP and house prices?

chucky

angrypirate wrote: »

Show me a time in history when house prices have bee completely stagnant - other than the points of inflextion (ie at the bottom and at the top).

Oh, hang on, its different this time.

by your logic the current stagnation (plus or minus 3%-5% over the year) is the bottom of the trough.... what happens after that....

Oh, hang on, its different this time.

chucky

phlash wrote: »

There are many factors to consider, and your approach is one dimensional, probably blinded by an emotional attachment to sustainable house price rises.

i stopped reading at this point

yet another frother