House prices fall 0.6% in June Halifax

FATBALLZ

Really2 wrote: »

If you use RPI to present a real term fall you would have to accept wages inflated by about the same on average so the fall would be nominal at the moment.
Any gains losses on inflation only really happen on a personal level.

Alright, to be honest I don't understand exactly what you mean, why do wages matter in the context of RPI? And why do we have to 'accept' wages inflated by the same, we have wage inflation figures already, theyre about 2% (half of RPI)?

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

I would not get to carried away house prices fall in the middle of a boom also, it is just one months data. (I presume when they go up one month you worry we are back in a boom;))
It is only one month, and all indicators are still looking at a fairly stangnent market for the year not a crash.

It's two months worth of falls. And the Nationwide trend is following it.

Looking at a each quarter, it's a fall on last quarter. Very small one, but a fall.

Now, don't confuse what I am saying here. These falls do not worry me.

But if we are seeing falls now, and we expect upwards of a further 1m unemployed PURELY from the public sector, and tax rises at the same time, the future looks a bit grim.

I would like to see falls. But I dunno, feel uneasy if the trend is down already. (Expected them to go up again this month, a bit like the stock markets at the mo).

Anyway, these are just my thoughts. I don't need to argue them, or be interogated on them, or have various scenarios that dont exist at the moment added to my thoughts to prove me somehow wrong. So hopefully I can have my thoughts and we can leave it at that

Really2

carolt wrote: »

No, they fell last month too. Downward trend over the last 3 months etc.

It's not just 1 month.

So I presume 6 months data is better, that would be down 2% or 1 year up 6%.

Funny that 2 out of 3 is now a trend. What happens if it goes up again.

Altogether
Don't stop Believing, hold on to the feeling.

All this excitement does make me laugh, look 2% fall this year on one index CRASH

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Anyway, these are just my thoughts. I don't need to argue them, or be interogated on them. So hopefully I can have my thoughts and we can leave it at that

It seems many have forgotton about the impact the election and the emergency budget caused.
It created caution in the market.

It'll be interesting to see going forward what the impact was.

My gut feeling was and is for a stagnant 2010, however I think that 2011 could also be a stagnant year.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It seems many have forgotton about the impact the election and the emergency budget caused.
It created caution in the market.

It'll be interesting to see going forward what the impact was.

My gut feeling was and is for a stagnant 2010, however I think that 2011 could also be a stagnant year.

Certainly will be interesting. My gut feeling was as you say, stagnation in 2010, but with falls in 2011, mainly due to the pinch we are all going to have to deal with which is now outlined, and not just guessing games anymore.

Which is why I said I was surprised to see a 'downwards' trend now, and a quarter on quarter fall, regardless of how small. I didn't expect 2-3 months of down....not yet.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's two months worth of falls. And the Nationwide trend is following it.

Is it? I thought nationwide was up 0.1% and up 1.9% in the quarter?

chucknorris

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It seems many have forgotton about the impact the election and the emergency budget caused.
It created caution in the market.

It'll be interesting to see going forward what the impact was.

My gut feeling was and is for a stagnant 2010, however I think that 2011 could also be a stagnant year.

Yes I think so too perhaps even an overall 5% drop over the next couple of years, but it could also be up 5% in 2 years, no big deal either way. It won't be spurring me ointo action, prices would have to drop a further 15% for me to become interested in buying.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Is it? I thought nationwide was up 0.1% and up 1.9% in the quarter?

Yes, it is.

You are on a thread about the Halifax.

It shows 2 months of falls. But, more importantly TO ME at least. It shows a downward trend. Completely ignoring the falls, the trend, on both the Halifax and Nationwide is down....

What's more, this months fall was bigger than last months, only by 0.1%, but still shows that the trend is still down, rather than the downward trend slowing, it's accelerating.

I more than realise I am talking only about a few months data here. But I'm making my point clear in that I'm only talking a few months data, and nothing more. I know full well how a few months data can be wiped out pretty easy.... so no need to pick me up on the data used. I just don't like this few months data considering what we have arriving on our plates in 2011 that we know of, and what we have arriving that we don't know of yet, thats stored up in the spending review.

chucky

Really2 wrote: »

Is it? I thought nationwide was up 0.1% and up 1.9% in the quarter?

he's actually sort of right, two months over 0.1% changes that trend though - they're 4.1% up since Jan, compared to halifax being 2% down...

Jan-10 £163,481 1.3%
Feb-10 £161,320 -0.9%
Mar-10 £164,519 1.0%
Apr-10 £167,802 1.1%
May-10 £169,162 0.5%
Jun-10 £170,111 0.1%

smells of flat prices to me.... [should i have done that in size 48 font in red?]

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Completely ignoring the falls, the trend, on both the Halifax and Nationwide is down....

The trend is not down on the nationwide at all, that was my point.(positive cant be down can it)

Overall both are looking at stagnation so the trend on neither is down at the moment TBH.