House prices fall 0.6% in June Halifax

FTBFun

brit1234 wrote: »

All the indices have shown falls over the last few months with the exception of Nationwide. However Nationwide gains in the figures have fallen to near 0 and expected to go negative next month.

Well, you hope.

Personally I expect them to remain flat for the rest of the year.

chucky

brit1234 wrote: »

All the indices have shown falls over the last few months with the exception of Nationwide. However Nationwide gains in the figures have fallen to near 0 and expected to go negative next month.

errrr no they haven't............

FATBALLZ

Really2 wrote: »

Don't you need wage inflation to get a "real term" fall. If you have had wage inflation to match inflation the fall is no different anyway.

Obviously theres different ways of looking at it, comparing to RPI would suggest Houses are become less valuable relative to other goods. Affordability via wages is another important perspective, plus cost and availability of mortgages.

Graham_Devon

This worires me a bit.

Interest rates yet to move upwards. Public sector cuts yet to take effect but outlined. General spending cuts yet to take effect, but outlined. VAT yet to go up, but policy in place.

And house prices falling at a time when rates can't get any lower, and nothing can really get any better than it currently is, economically, unless we ramp up QE again.

It's kind of hit stalemate I guess. But the road ahead just get's worse. There is no way off the road, and we have to travel down it, and the road it set out. I'm just a little surprised they have started falling MOM now, before all of the cuts etc take place, and at a time when, (having been told over and over so many have missed the boat month after month) I'm told it's one of the best times to get in there and fix.

I find it hard to imagine how prices can simply stagnate, rather than fall, given the sqeeze on EVERYONE's pockets that has been outlined in the budget, squeeze on jobs, and the spending review yet to take place.

Really2

FATBALLZ wrote: »

Obviously theres different ways of looking at it, comparing to RPI would suggest Houses are become less valuable relative to other goods. Affordability via wages is another important perspective, plus cost and availability of mortgages.

If you use RPI to present a real term fall you would have to accept wages inflated by about the same on average so the fall would be nominal at the moment.
Any gains losses on inflation only really happen on a personal level.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

This worires me a bit.

Interest rates yet to move upwards. Public sector cuts yet to take effect but outlined. General spending cuts yet to take effect, but outlined. VAT yet to go up, but policy in place.

And house prices falling at a time when rates can't get any lower, and nothing can really get any better than it currently is, economically, unless we ramp up QE again.

I would not get to carried away house prices fall in the middle of a boom also, it is just one months data. (I presume when they go up one month you worry we are back in a boom;))
It is only one month, and all indicators are still looking at a fairly stangnent market for the year not a crash.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I find it hard to imagine how prices can simply stagnate, rather than fall

it's quite easy to imagine...

not everyone is going to have to buy a house and not everyone is going to have to sell a house.

until there are any forced sellers there ain't no big price falls.

carolt

Really2 wrote: »

I would not get to carried away house prices fall in the middle of a boom also, it is just one months data. (I presume when they go up one month you worry we are back in a boom;))
It is only one month, and all indicators are still looking at a fairly stangnent market for the year not a crash.

No, they fell last month too. Downward trend over the last 3 months etc.

It's not just 1 month.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Good news for everyone wishing to buy or trade up. Ie most people.

hmmmmm, most people you say.
Let's consider that for a moment.

From this link, it refers that there are 11.4 million mortgages, although I do not foresee how you could infer that most want to upgrade.
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2612

Let's assume that for every trade up , there is a trade down, so 5.7million demand.
If you think that there are more trade up's e.g. 2 to 3 bed, 3 to 4 bed, 4 to 2 bed then this only increases the potential demand

It's very hard to put a quantifyable number for those who are not yet homeowners but wish to be. How many people stay at home or are renters that wish to own.
Certainly there seems to be 1.2million BTL properties and while I know that not all renters wish to buy, lets assume they are replaced by those who stay at home / 'kip on friends floors' etc.

That would put a rough estimation of 5.7 million + 1.2 million = 6.9million people who want to buy or trade up / down.

How does the rough desire for property that you infer in 'most people' want correlate to demand and against the supply of property?

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

No, they fell last month too. Downward trend over the last 3 months etc.

It's not just 1 month.

It's reflecting what most reasonable people have predicted in that it will be a stagnant year.

cast your mind back, we've been saying for a while there will be some months up and some months down resulting in stagnation