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Tory lead drops to 5%...... Hung parliament?
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
Looks like Heseltine was right to be worried.
Tories: 37%
Labour: 32%
Lib Dems: 19%
Less than a 9% lead = hung parliament territory.......
Tories: 37%
Labour: 32%
Lib Dems: 19%
Less than a 9% lead = hung parliament territory.......
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Looks like Heseltine was right to be worried.
Tories: 39%
Labour: 32%
Lib Dems: 19%
Less than a 9% lead = hung parliament territory.......
Tory lead dropsh to 7% shurely?
A hung Parliament should see Labour back in and a new election in a few months. I can't see what's in it for the Tories to run a minority or coalition Government unless it looks like the economy is coming back strongly. That looks unlikely but anything is possible.0 -
Tory lead dropsh to 7% shurely?
No, it's 5%, but I typed the wrong figure. Tories on 37%....A hung Parliament should see Labour back in and a new election in a few months. I can't see what's in it for the Tories to run a minority or coalition Government unless it looks like the economy is coming back strongly. That looks unlikely but anything is possible.
Interesting times ahead, for sure.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Interesting times ahead, for sure.
I agree with you there old fruit. Unfortunately I fear it may be like that old Chinese (supposed) insult, "May you live in interesting times".0 -
Daniel Finkelstein in yesterday's Times argued that the Tory strategy of targeting marginal seats will see them ok even with a modest overall lead in votes. Mind you, Finkelstein is quite a strong Tory supporter, and he deserved an OBN for his comments on Lord Ashcroft.No reliance should be placed on the above! Absolutely none, do you hear?0
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »No, it's 5%, but I typed the wrong figure. Tories on 37%....
Interesting times ahead, for sure.
Disastrous more like Hamish. I could see the probability of a Lab/LibDem pact - I will be the first to book my one way ticket out of here!0 -
The vote maybe for a hung Parliment but no way will one be formed. The Torys can afford two elections Labour can not even afford one. So the Torys best be is a second election.
The Libs would insist that Brown step down completley and they would want all his poison to go with him, so Balls, Milliband (e), Byrne, Cooper would all get no positions of power. This means Brown would reject the ung parliment because he would hand the Blarites power in the Labour party.
So two elections it will be.0 -
Daniel Finkelstein in yesterday's Times argued that the Tory strategy of targeting marginal seats will see them ok even with a modest overall lead in votes. Mind you, Finkelstein is quite a strong Tory supporter, and he deserved an OBN for his comments on Lord Ashcroft.
He was an advisor to John Major (in the Tory party not in Government).
I think he's great - an interesting writer with a lot of good points to make.0 -
I agree with you there old fruit. Unfortunately I fear it may be like that old Chinese (supposed) insult, "May you live in interesting times".
Yes, that was running through my head when I typed it.....
Although I'm not entirely convinced a hung parliament would be the worst thing in the world, at this point. An opportunity perhaps for a bit of Tory inspired fiscal restraint and civil rights strengthening, some Lib Dem inspired social libertarianism, and Labour inspired..... well, I can't think of anything positive about Labour, but I suppose they'd stop the Tories from cutting too far too fast.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Just to put some perspective on it if you look at the unwieghted figures they are 43% 28% 15%. It is only mori's interpretation of the raw data that gets this 5% lead result.0
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Of course it'll be a hung parliament. With Labour holding most seats.
The Tories major problem is that outside of their southern heartland their votes are spread quite thinly. They're targeting key marginals and will win many of them. their problem is the sheer scale of the number of seats they need to win for a majority of 1. There isn't a "Get Rid Of Them" movement as there was in 97, nor do people trust the opposition as a competent government in waiting.
What we're going to see are Labour MPs in Tory target seats slipping through. The opposition vote will fragment, leaving the Tories with most votes nationally and less seats. At which point they whill shrilly complain about an electoral system which they have very publically wedded themselves to.0
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