Tory lead drops to 5%...... Hung parliament?

Pete111

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

The trouble is most of the country may sick to the back teeth of the current lot - but I think a lot of people are more than worried about what might replace them. I feel between the devil and the deep blue sea.

I have strong labour leanings politically - but I am ready for a change - the trouble is, I do not have any confidence in the Tories at the moment tbh.

If they would just be more up front and honest about their plans I might feel a bit happier - if they didn't change their minds so often - if David Cameron came across as less evasive and slippery and Osborne a bit more competent and savvy.

Just my opinion by the way

No worries - we can only ever give our opinions on here as regards future events!

Rochdale believes labour will win and thats fine - I disgree and think the Tories will get in with a small majority but there you go. Both of us are hopeful that our favoured party will get in and cut our cloth accordingly.

As I've said before, if Labour do (somehow..) stay in then I will at least take some solace in watching GB slowly realise that the 'beneficiary' of his scorched earth policies is in fact...himself.

Mr.Brown_4

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I said cuts with minimal pain....



Freeze spending in nominal terms, increase efficiency, let inflation do the rest.

Efficiency is nonsense, it's used by both sides to imply savings that are unquantifiable.

I don't know how long the spending freeze at say 3% inflation would take to get rid of the problem deficit overhang - five years, ten years, fifty years?

But yeah, I'd vote for you... if you were Tory.

Charterhouse

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Of course it'll be a hung parliament. With Labour holding most seats.

The Tories major problem is that outside of their southern heartland their votes are spread quite thinly. They're targeting key marginals and will win many of them. their problem is the sheer scale of the number of seats they need to win for a majority of 1. There isn't a "Get Rid Of Them" movement as there was in 97, nor do people trust the opposition as a competent government in waiting.

What we're going to see are Labour MPs in Tory target seats slipping through. The opposition vote will fragment, leaving the Tories with most votes nationally and less seats. At which point they whill shrilly complain about an electoral system which they have very publically wedded themselves to.

Have you ever actually done any research? Almost every single sentence you typed here is 100% wrong.

aelitaman

Mr.Brown wrote: »

Efficiency is nonsense, it's used by both sides to imply savings that are unquantifiable.

I don't know how long the spending freeze at say 3% inflation would take to get rid of the problem deficit overhang - five years, ten years, fifty years?

But yeah, I'd vote for you... if you were Tory.

I agree the only way they can improve effciency is to say your budget is reduced by 5% from last year, you are not allowed to make frontline service cuts and only back office, management staff can be let go and the govt dept bosses need their bonuses to be paid on it. One nurse made redundant no bonus. 2000 diversity wallahs made redundant, full bonus.

On your second point I saw a report this week that said if govt spending is frozen at todays levels and growth is allowed to take out the deficeit and to get public sector debt down to just below 40% again it would take 20 years. This is about the same as last time Labour messed it all up. IMF were called in 1976 then in 2001 the UK actually ran a surplus, more taken in Govt income than spent.

So to anybody on here who thinks things are going to be rosy is a year or two we have 10 to 20 years of pain ahead, the real legacy of Gordon McRuin.

DaddyBear

Labour has deliberately created a country dependent on benefits and public sector jobs. Add to that alteration in constituency boundaries to favour themselves, it is going to be very hard for the Tories to get back in.
I fully expect labour to do better in the election than the pre-election polls. Joe public may well want to vote Tory but when he's in that polling booth he'll tick the box that protects his income.
If the lead is cut to 5% even before the election campaign has started then it's likely that Brown will win.

Rochdale_Pioneers

Charterhouse wrote: »

Have you ever actually done any research? Almost every single sentence you typed here is 100% wrong.

Well....

1. The Tories do need to win a record number of seats for a majority of 1
2. Their vote is spread thinly - which is why a uniform national swing sees them short of a majority even with a 7% or so poll lead
3. The Tory poll lead is collapsing - 45% lower than it was a month ago. The questions asked in these polls show people's belief in their competence is also sliding
4. There are 656 seperate elections all on the same day, which means the national number of votes cast is irrelevant
5. Cameron has wedded himself to first past the post despite the bias against them it produces

I'm struggling - which of the above is 100% wrong? Specifically

cogito

I'm picturing myself as a 'don't know' in the polling booth in a few weeks time, pencil in hand and trying to make the crucial decision where to put my cross.

Do I want another 5 years of hard labour? I doubt it very much.

And that is exactly the decision that large numbers of voters will make.

chucky

cogito wrote: »

I'm picturing myself as a 'don't know' in the polling booth in a few weeks time, pencil in hand and trying to make the crucial decision where to put my cross.

Do I want another 5 years of hard labour? I doubt it very much.

And that is exactly the decision that large numbers of voters will make.

unfortunately the turn out of voters will be very low - I wouldn't be surprised if it was all time low

this probably doesn't suit the tories

DaddyBear

cogito wrote: »

I'm picturing myself as a 'don't know' in the polling booth in a few weeks time, pencil in hand and trying to make the crucial decision where to put my cross.

Do I want another 5 years of hard labour? I doubt it very much.

And that is exactly the decision that large numbers of voters will make.

The problem is that most voters don't see it as pain. They've had their massive HPI, benefits and/or needless public sector job. They believe the spin that labour and the BBC are pushing, that the recovery is here and that the Tories will wreck it.

Pete111

chucky wrote: »

unfortunately the turn out of voters will be very low - I wouldn't be surprised if it was all time low

this probably doesn't suit the tories

Really? People are genuinely p*ssed off with Labour and this time the Tories offer a realistic alternative (unlike the last few times)

Given that, I would expect the turnout to be up on the last election. But maybe I'm just being hopeful!