Tory lead drops to 5%...... Hung parliament?

Sir_Humphrey

Thanks everyone, this is a fascinating thread which raises some points I had not thought of. I need to have a mull before getting out my crystal ball.

Pete111

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Of course it'll be a hung parliament. With Labour holding most seats.

The Tories major problem is that outside of their southern heartland their votes are spread quite thinly. They're targeting key marginals and will win many of them. their problem is the sheer scale of the number of seats they need to win for a majority of 1. There isn't a "Get Rid Of Them" movement as there was in 97, nor do people trust the opposition as a competent government in waiting.

What we're going to see are Labour MPs in Tory target seats slipping through. The opposition vote will fragment, leaving the Tories with most votes nationally and less seats. At which point they whill shrilly complain about an electoral system which they have very publically wedded themselves to.

Brave prediction!

Completely wrong I think but Brave nevertheless.

Most of the country is sick to the back teeth with the current lot. Time for a change.

Pagg

Hung parliament here we come. Ulster Unionists, prepare for power!

Rochdale_Pioneers

Pete111 wrote: »

Brave prediction!

Completely wrong I think but Brave nevertheless.

I've been saying it for a while. Labour will win the election. Fundamentally people are not willing to suffer the consequences of the bankers largesse and will not vote for deep cuts. Especially when they're warned by the IMF and the markets that such a policy will be a disaster. Or when Osborne refuses to put any detail on where the cuts will fall and all the pundits insist the scale of cuts will have to be far greater than Boy George is letting on.

Austerity is an impossible pitch to an electorate sick of recession AND you need to win more seats than any opposition ever has to take power. Don't the Tories get it? Screw whether its right for the economy of not, Turkeys do not vote for Christmas.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Austerity is an impossible pitch to an electorate sick of recession AND you need to win more seats than any opposition ever has to take power.

Absolutely spot on.

The Tories "austerity agenda" will go down in history as one of the biggest campaign blunders of all time.

Don't the Tories get it? Screw whether its right for the economy of not, Turkeys do not vote for Christmas.

As I see it, the only hope the Tories have of pulling out a bigger lead again is to wait for the Labour budget, and then get specific about how they will make cuts WITHOUT any austerity nonsense.

Maximum efficiency, maximum growth, minimum job cuts and pain. It's their only way to win a clear and decisive victory.

Rochdale_Pioneers

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As I see it, the only hope the Tories have of pulling out a bigger lead again is to wait for the Labour budget, and then get specific about how they will make cuts WITHOUT any austerity nonsense.

Which is why there won't be a budget this side of the election. Why would Labour want to put detailed plans on the table? They're already seen as less threatening than the Tories - detailed plans might force Osborne to detail his plans then we're into a detail vs detail campaign that will put the public to sleep.

Bornw will be off to see Brenda in the next few days to call a 25th March election. Which he will win.

baileysbattlebus

Pete111 wrote: »

Brave prediction!

Completely wrong I think but Brave nevertheless.

Most of the country is sick to the back teeth with the current lot. Time for a change.

The trouble is most of the country may sick to the back teeth of the current lot - but I think a lot of people are more than worried about what might replace them. I feel between the devil and the deep blue sea.

I have strong labour leanings politically - but I am ready for a change - the trouble is, I do not have any confidence in the Tories at the moment tbh.

If they would just be more up front and honest about their plans I might feel a bit happier - if they didn't change their minds so often - if David Cameron came across as less evasive and slippery and Osborne a bit more competent and savvy.

Just my opinion by the way

Mr.Brown_4

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

get specific about how they will make cuts WITHOUT any austerity nonsense.

And how exactly does that work? Cuts with no pain? If only it were possible - everybody would be doing it.

Anyone care to explain how we could fix the economy, enable us to keep functioning, without deep cuts and / or higher taxes?

kabayiri

Whoever thinks politicians can somehow fix the mess we are in is living on fantasy island.

It's better to be in a 'best of a bad job' mode of thinking.

Why don't we create a 'recession wartime coalition' government now. The specific brief would be to crisis manage our way through the next 18 months / 2 years.

It would at least remove some uncertainty from the market onlookers.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Mr.Brown wrote: »

And how exactly does that work? Cuts with no pain? If only it were possible - everybody would be doing it.

I said cuts with minimal pain....

Anyone care to explain how we could fix the economy, enable us to keep functioning, without deep cuts and / or higher taxes?

Freeze spending in nominal terms, increase efficiency, let inflation do the rest.