Recession may be over tomorrow

bo_drinker

OP. Recession may be over tomorrow.

I'll get me coat ......

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Are you not even willing to accept some sort of 'trend' adjustment in there - ie a big artificial boom might take the economy above trend and so a return to trend might be sufficient?

Yeah that would be reasonable too. Say a move back to a level of GDP growth that is consistant with unemployment remaining steady (for the UK I think that's about 2.2-2.5pa%). The only weakness is that doesn't then account for the 'lost growth' during the recession.

Cannon_Fodder

So, what effect does TWO quarters of false positivity have on sentiment as we approach what looks like being a long, hard winter for many?

Ok, big chunks of society don't even know what GDP is, but the headline "Longest Recession on Record" is scrolling across the screen, for the hardest of understanding to absorb.

I concede that this whole recession/crash is looking less and less like the 90s...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8321970.stm


Shadow chancellor George Osborne described the figures as "deeply, deeply disappointing".
"There are many millions of people who will be deeply concerned to see that Britain is still in recession six months after France and Germany came out of recession," he told the BBC.
"It destroys the myth that Britain was better prepared."
Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Vince Cable said the figures were "a cold blast of realism".
"We've had a lot of talk recently based on a booming stock exchange and prices of luxury houses in London that somehow this problem was at an end, and it isn't," he said.

michaels

Are we seeing a huge disconnect between the financial sector being buoyed into a QE bubble and the real economy to which the stimulus is resolutely failing to percolate?

bumpoowee

Interesting that they chose a picture of some house 'for sale' signs for an article about the recession ending. I mean who cares about employment, manufacturing and productivity as long as somebody is buying and selling a house.

vaporate

Magic wand anyone?

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Are we seeing a huge disconnect between the financial sector being buoyed into a QE bubble and the real economy to which the stimulus is resolutely failing to percolate?

I think so. Basically, the Government is giving money (or lending it very cheaply) to the banks and it is getting stuck there. Whether that's because banks won't lend or companies and consumers won't borrow is immaterial really.

You can see it in the disconnect between M0 and M4 money supply figures.

lostinrates

Generali wrote: »

Whether that's because banks won't lend or companies and consumers won't borrow is immaterial really.

The amount we can borrow has reduced. We would like to borrow more.

(thankfully the type of property we are looking for has reduced more, and our deposite has increased, as has DH's salary, so we are still ok, but if we could borow what we could borow we'd be laughing like one of those rolling smilies....)

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

I think so. Basically, the Government is giving money (or lending it very cheaply) to the banks and it is getting stuck there. Whether that's because banks won't lend or companies and consumers won't borrow is immaterial really.

You can see it in the disconnect between M0 and M4 money supply figures.

This may be a silly question, but...

why dont they bypass the banks?

Give direct grants for R&D, product development, or expansion plans etc.

mewbie_2

kabayiri wrote: »

This may be a silly question, but...

why dont they bypass the banks?

Give direct grants for R&D, product development, or expansion plans etc.

That's like saying we could run the country without politicians, or settle arguments without lawyers.

Anarchist.