Recession may be over tomorrow

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

Go and have a read through the archives.

Isn't it easier if you just tell me, or link up to where you for example said 20-30%?

Edit an hour later....

I guess you don't want to do that then!! :rolleyes:

abaxas

My betting is a +ve figure that is magically edited the quarter later to make the next GDP figure be positive too.

mbga9pgf

Wont last long though will it? 175 billion in QE and we are only just breaking even. Its all future consumption and spending brought forward to today. Idiotic, dangerous.

Cannon_Fodder

Despite several positive stories over the last couple of months, there have also been a few cautionary ones sprinkled among them here and there, partly covering someone's backsides no doubt, but possibly also closer to the truth...

mbga9pgf

Lets face it, its going to be positive, perhaps by quite a margin. its the main reason the BOE are hopeful about the effects of QE and are reigning back extra liquidity.

Thing is, have they overcooked it? If inflation rears its head (Unlikely imho) then they will be forced to raise rates to help get rid of the QE in the system.

kabayiri

Does this potential upturn match the perception of people here?

Personally, I think we will have a fairly modest xmas. I don't feel a need to change my car, and there are only so many wii's, tvs, digi cams you need.

I suspect many could ease back on their spending, but will they?

mbga9pgf

I suspect everyone that bought a car a year or two earlier as a result of government aid will probably be not buying one any time soon.

Dan:_4

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Lets face it, its going to be positive, perhaps by quite a margin. .

You say that like it's a bad thing.

mbga9pgf

It is. And you are blind if you dont see why. All they have done, yet again, is pull forward potential spending tommorrow, to today.

Much better if we didnt hold over 1 trillion in secured/undecured lending, plus 50% state debt and a much smaller economy imo. Of course, that requires not spending the cash in the first place and you cant unfortunately put the genie back in the bottle once its out.

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

You say that like it's a bad thing.

It would be a hell of a lot better if it wasn't on the back of a load of artificial stimulus and money creation.

Let's not forget how we actually got to where we are now.

I know for you, this will mean recession over, not taking a blind bit of notice at the rest of the economy, or indeed, how it's been achieved.

For others however, they can see past a created situtation.