The “crash” is over – now how long before prices fully recover?

sabretoothtigger

Probably by the end of 2011

Housing crash is over, currency and bond crash is next

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/6292787/Benign-currency-neglect-could-spell-real-danger-for-US-economy.html

carolt

Never ever ever

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Define over....

The absolute trough was reached back in February 2009. Prices may well dip slightly again over winter, but the chances of them breaching that low are vanishingly small.

Year on year positives are happening now, and will continue to expand. The majority of areas will be YoY positive by years end.

The crash is over.

Any further dips are falls within a growth trend, as these rises have now gone too far to be growth within a declining trend.

I've saved your post so I can enjoy quoting it back at you and prevent you deleting it, Hamish.

Of course "the crash" isn't over.

Of course Feb 09 wasn't "the trough".

Are you really as naive as you sound?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Probably by the end of 2011

carolt wrote: »

I've saved your post so I can enjoy quoting it back at you and prevent you deleting it, Hamish.

Of course "the crash" isn't over.

Of course Feb 09 wasn't "the trough".

Are you really as naive as you sound?

Wait....

Do you really believe that?:eek:

You're not just trying to wind me up?

Oh dear carol.... You really are in for a nasty surprise.

Can you point me to a single "bull trap" in UK housing history where prices rose by 9%, and over the course of 7 months?

Just one will do....;)

MiserlyMartin

Some time after 2011

I haven't the figures right now but I recall that in the last crash which started around 1990, by 1993 prices rose for 6 months solid, before carrying on the downward trend. Some months were up, some down but overall they did not start recovering until April 1996.

I ought to add that the thing which possibly led to the amount of distressed sellers in 1990 was the doubling of interest rates from around 7% to over 14%. Today we only need mortgage rates to hit 6% for that to happen again.

Interest rates have never been this low. It could be different this time, maybe prices will stay flat, rise or crash more. Who knows but for someone with only 50% LTV, buying now would be ok provided they wanted to risk overpaying for the property and possibly kicking themselves later on down the line. But it would be financial sucicide to buy now if you have to borrow to the max and use all of your savings on deposit. So where are the first time buyers, what can hold this rally up? It seems that once the cash buyers have gone all could be down again.

undetterred

carolt wrote: »

I've saved your post so I can enjoy quoting it back at you and prevent you deleting it, Hamish.

Of course "the crash" isn't over.

Of course Feb 09 wasn't "the trough".

Are you really as naive as you sound?

Are you naive enough to think we'll so lows of Feb 09 next year?

Would be nice but highly improbable.

mewbie_2

Some time after 2011

undetterred wrote: »

Are you naive enough to think we'll so lows of Feb 09 next year?

Would be nice but highly improbable.

I'm that naive. We'll see the lows as we go down past them. You can wave if you like.

undetterred

mewbie wrote: »

I'm that naive. We'll see the lows as we go down past them. You can wave if you like.

Another quote for posterity then.....heres to the future,provided we arent wiped out by an asteroid strike.

mewbie_2

Some time after 2011

undetterred wrote: »

Another quote for posterity then.....heres to the future,provided we arent wiped out by an asteroid strike.

Not much of a posterity, if they are interested in what I typed on a second rate internet site populated by the feeble minded.

undetterred

mewbie wrote: »

Not much of a posterity, if they are interested in what I typed on a second rate internet site populated by the feeble minded.

Yeah kinda strange in here,like another dimension,plenty of armchair pundits.

brit1234

Never ever ever

undetterred wrote: »

Are you naive enough to think we'll so lows of Feb 09 next year?

Would be nice but highly improbable.

All the basics economic data suggest we have much further to fall. The idea that house prices will continue to rise as people are scared to put on the market can not be maintained.

Bank lending depicts lending and it is below todays house prices unless you have large reserves of cash/equity or a ending govornment scheme.

Prices are going to fall again, it will be interesting to see if land registry figures show second month of falls.