The “crash” is over – now how long before prices fully recover?

StiflersMom

Recovery is gaining pace – within 6 months

How do you mean, it would be unlikely? I would have thought the market would have recovered much sooner than that

IveSeenTheLight

StiflersMom wrote: »

How do you mean, it would be unlikely? I would have thought the market would have recovered much sooner than that

I meant it would be nice to follow the long term trend in a steady yearly 2.9% increase.

The housing market has never worked that way though and therefore is highly unlikely

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Probably by the end of 2011

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You don't need a graph, but if house prices were to remain on the 2.9% long term trend it would take about 7 years, so circa 2016 / 2017.

It would be nice, but unlikely I think

Unlikely to take that long.

Knight Frank's latest report today is predicting +40% for London by 2014, and +20% nationally by 2014.

2007 prices as a national average by 2011/2012 is now looking likely.

2007 prices are already happening today in many areas.

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Unlikely to take that long.

Knight Frank's latest report today is predicting +40% for London by 2014, and +20% nationally by 2014.

2007 prices as a national average by 2011/2012 is now looking likely.

2007 prices are already happening today in many areas.

Like I said the housing market does not follow a uniformed HPI.

2007 prices may be already happening in many areas but as the national average is lower, this would indicate that many more areas are not at 2007 prices.

Best to look at your own specific area and not get too hung up on the UK average

sabretoothtigger

Probably by the end of 2011

We should compare that graph to inflation for actual value increases in housing.
CPI doubled from 86 to 08 and 2.9% over 22 years is a 88% increase or 12% less then CPI inflation so roughly speaking if we're back on the 2.9% trend then housing got better value for buyers since 86? Thats surprising if true


http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSelection1.asp

StiflersMom

Recovery is gaining pace – within 6 months

I love the Nora Joyce line in your signature. As a JJ fan, it made me giggle

IveSeenTheLight

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

We should compare that graph to inflation for actual value increases in housing.
CPI doubled from 86 to 08 and 2.9% over 22 years is a 88% increase or 12% less then CPI inflation so roughly speaking if we're back on the 2.9% trend then housing got better value for buyers since 86? Thats surprising if true


http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSelection1.asp

It is very interesting to learn that houses in 2008 were better valued than in 1986, that would mean in 2009 they are even better valued.

However regarding house prices, the nominal value is what is important and we are very close to the long term trend of 30 years for house prices.

carolt

Never ever ever

StiflersMom wrote: »

There are about 10 posters on this thread that are loony then... including a certain carolt, who voted in this poll that prices would "Never ever ever" recover. Really, not in 10, 20, or 50 years?

Round about my way, prices have been going crazy and are almost back up to the levels at the peak and there is no sign of them slowing down.

I suppose it depends on where you want to live

Good luck to everyone trying to buy

I don't think prices are likely to reach the highs of 2007 in real terms ever again, no.

That's not so say that I expect prices to fall for ever, though. Once prices have fallen back to below the long-term trend, they will probably rise above it again, and back down. It's a cyclical market.

As a nice article I read recently pointed out,

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article6869210.ece

Quote, George Buckley, chief economist at Deutsche Bank:
"Buckley: House prices rose 200% over 10 years; they’ve fallen by only 13%. If we were in a bubble before, we’re probably still in a bubble. "

There are clearly further falls to go.


Thus the poll in the OP is patent nonsense - the crash is NOT over, and the direction in house prices will be down not up for some time, certainly well beyond the 2011 date given as the most distant option in the OP.

the_ash_and_the_oak

StiflersMom wrote: »

There are about 10 posters on this thread that are loony then... including a certain carolt, who voted in this poll that prices would "Never ever ever" recover. Really, not in 10, 20, or 50 years?

tbf permanently falling and never recover are actually two different things. eg if prices never recovered peak prices it doesn't follow they would continue falling. If 10 were to drop to 8 and never reach 10 again, it doesn't follow that it will continue to fall from 8 down to 7 and 6. (I'm not saying i subscribe to this but they are clearly not the same argument).

This argument could be made in nominal terms (unlikely) and in real terms (certainly possible)

chucky

Some time after 2011

carolt wrote: »

I don't think prices are likely to reach the highs of 2007 in real terms ever again, no.

That's not so say that I expect prices to fall for ever, though. Once prices have fallen back to below the long-term trend, they will probably rise above it again, and back down. It's a cyclical market.

As a nice article I read recently pointed out, then when you realise that prices have risen 200% in a decade, expecting that falls of 13% in a year are enough, and mean that 'normal' service upwards is resumed, are just silly.

There are clearly further falls to go.

Thus the poll in the OP is nonsense - the crash is NOT over, and the direction in house prices will be down not up for some time, certainly well beyond the 2011 date given as the most distant option in the OP.

this should explain things a bit better...

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

We should compare that graph to inflation for actual value increases in housing.
CPI doubled from 86 to 08 and 2.9% over 22 years is a 88% increase or 12% less then CPI inflation so roughly speaking if we're back on the 2.9% trend then housing got better value for buyers since 86? Thats surprising if true


http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDSelection1.asp

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It is very interesting to learn that houses in 2008 were better valued than in 1986, that would mean in 2009 they are even better valued.

However regarding house prices, the nominal value is what is important and we are very close to the long term trend of 30 years for house prices.