The “crash” is over – now how long before prices fully recover?

sabretoothtigger

Probably by the end of 2011

Thats a bit confusing but that last section of text is a quote from something you said in 2005, took me a min to figure out :laugh:

Conrad wrote: »

Ive sold all my B2Ls over the last 12 months.
With investment you need to understand a basic principle; 'Buy on the rumour, sell on the news'. Now that B2L is big news and everyones at it, I made the decision it was high time to bail out. The last property sold has dropped 15% in value in the last 12 months. This unstoppable motion is spreading and will really be big news over the next 12 months. There is lots of new development flooding the market, and too many people are trying to sell to too few buyers.

My Stock Market Unit Trusts have gone up over 30% in the last 24 months, because I carried on buying into the SM when it was unpopular. You need to wait until property becomes unpopular (no - one was buying after the last crash), or if u do buy now its going to be long wait for any returns IMO.

Any true investor is not currently buying property in the UK. Buying abroad is far better, for example land (no rent hassle) in up and comming areas such as the Cape Verde islands. Bulgaria etc are not for me.

Im quite surprised you sold for a loss in 2005 but I agree that with speculation investments at least its best to leave when it gets too popular.
They say the same thing about stocks too, when your being offered sure win stock tips without even asking its probably best to scale back positions

Kennedy got out of the market in 1928, the year before the Crash, locking in multi-million dollar profits. Indeed when the 1929 crash did come, he made money due to his short positions. He famously remarked about getting out of the stock market in 1928, 'You know it is time to sell when the shoe-shine boy tries to give you stock tips.'

http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Shorting-spreadbetting.html




carol, prices and value are separate. You could be right and the price would still rise

carolt

Never ever ever

Conrad wrote: »

Does'nt matter what any of us believe, tis the British public that will ensure rising prices, afterall where else to stick ones hard earned!

I don't get the whole eternal bear thang. I was a bear in 04-08*, but this eternal bear status seems bordering insanity.

I've never met an "eternal bear"? Is that someone who at all times thinks prices will always fall?

Clearly a loon.

As opposed to someone who rationally thinks prices are currently overvalued after nearly 2 decades of rising prices with only relatively minor falls so far? Clearly rational and sensible.

Why do you have such difficulty distinguishing the two, Conrad?

nembot

I don't think anyone thinks prices will fall consistantly, but there is above and below the line as the market is in laymans terms, cyclic.

We're so far above the line at this point in time, only 50% pay rises or substantial drops, will bring us back to sustainability.

Since 50% increases in wages are pretty bloody unlikely, I suspect soon we'll be heading down once again and this time further.

I find it so amazing that for the first 7 years of the 21st century, we saw some totally uncharacteristic increases in house prices due to lenders and other parties unadulterated greed. Yet people think this is going to continue, while the country, and to an extent the worlds economy is screwed.

What I don't find suprising in the slightest, is the amount of people with something to lose, in total denial about the whole thing.

StiflersMom

Recovery is gaining pace – within 6 months

carolt wrote: »

I've never met an "eternal bear"? Is that someone who at all times thinks prices will always fall?

Clearly a loon.

There are about 10 posters on this thread that are loony then... including a certain carolt, who voted in this poll that prices would "Never ever ever" recover. Really, not in 10, 20, or 50 years?

Round about my way, prices have been going crazy and are almost back up to the levels at the peak and there is no sign of them slowing down.

I suppose it depends on where you want to live

Good luck to everyone trying to buy

IveSeenTheLight

pickles110564 wrote: »

Brit still no answer why you changed your Sig! :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

And it's still wrong.
Righmove has not shown two consecutive monthly drops the whole of 2009

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

As opposed to someone who rationally thinks prices are currently overvalued after nearly 2 decades of rising prices with only relatively minor falls so far? Clearly rational and sensible.

Why do you have such difficulty distinguishing the two, Conrad?

You believe there has been only relatively minor falls so far.
When I looked there has been a similar percentage price drop this correction than in the 90's

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=25766339&postcount=34

IveSeenTheLight

nembot wrote: »

I don't think anyone thinks prices will fall consistantly, but there is above and below the line as the market is in laymans terms, cyclic.

We're so far above the line at this point in time, only 50% pay rises or substantial drops, will bring us back to sustainability.

Since 50% increases in wages are pretty bloody unlikely, I suspect soon we'll be heading down once again and this time further.

I find it so amazing that for the first 7 years of the 21st century, we saw some totally uncharacteristic increases in house prices due to lenders and other parties unadulterated greed. Yet people think this is going to continue, while the country, and to an extent the worlds economy is screwed.

What I don't find suprising in the slightest, is the amount of people with something to lose, in total denial about the whole thing.

Your right, there is a line and currently we are above it (see below).
I think the winter period will see us drop equally below the line as we are above it now

Then in the spring, we'll head back up to that line and hopefully track it for a bit.

Almost like stagnation but folloing the long term house price inflation trend

StiflersMom

Recovery is gaining pace – within 6 months

Makes a lot of sense IveSeenTheLight

I really hope you're right. You seem to be one of the few people on here that listens to both sides of the argument.

StiflersMom

Recovery is gaining pace – within 6 months

Using your graphs, how long would it be before we reach the previous peak?

IveSeenTheLight

StiflersMom wrote: »

Using your graphs, how long would it be before we reach the previous peak?

You don't need a graph, but if house prices were to remain on the 2.9% long term trend it would take about 7 years, so circa 2016 / 2017.

It would be nice, but unlikely I think