The “crash” is over – now how long before prices fully recover?

undetterred

brit1234 wrote: »

All the basics economic data suggest we have much further to fall. The idea that house prices will continue to rise as people are scared to put on the market can not be maintained.

Bank lending depicts lending and it is below todays house prices unless you have large reserves of cash/equity or a ending govornment scheme.

Prices are going to fall again, it will be interesting to see if land registry figures show second month of falls.

The sentiment in here is different to what goes on in the 'normal' world,cue flaming.
Some rather way out theories,views,expressions etc about price rises and falls on this board.

Would another fall back, be detrimental to the economy at the mo as it seems to be steadying out to,yet massive rises could also have the same effect.

Personally i think prices will just bump along as they are now.

carolt

Never ever ever

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Wait....

Do you really believe that?:eek:

You're not just trying to wind me up?

Oh dear carol.... You really are in for a nasty surprise.

Can you point me to a single "bull trap" in UK housing history where prices rose by 9%, and over the course of 7 months?

Just one will do....;)

Prices haven't risen this time for 7 months either, let alone by 9% - the latest Land Registry figures showed a fall, IIRC.

Would be a lovely argument, otherwise.

If you want to believe that prices are just going to keep going upwards from here on, feel free. If it makes you happy, believe away.

treliac

Some time after 2011

new_home_owner wrote: »

A lot of houses by me are now selling but until the price come up on the land registry i wont know what the owners accepted.

A lot of houses round my way have a 'sold' board go up. A few weeks down the line, 'sold' comes down and the 'for sale' board goes back up. :rotfl:

A house nearby has been on the market for ages. Couple of weeks ago it showed as 'sold'. Now that's gone and there's a reposession notice stuck to the door!!

I wonder how many 'sales' statistics reports these show up on.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Probably by the end of 2011

carolt wrote: »

Prices haven't risen this time for 7 months either, let alone by 9% - the latest Land Registry figures showed a fall.

Ahhh, denial. Not just a river in Egypt.

According to Nationwide they have. Every month since February, and now up 9% from trough.

Land registry lags by months and includes non mortgage sales. Not surprising it shows less gains and for a shorter time. For current prices, for mortgage buyers, Nationwide is more accurate as a national average.

Interestingly though, the less noisy Land Registry quarterly series shows prices up 14% from the trough and now only 2.5% below peak.;) Though I suspect you'll find reasons to doubt that as well.....

Thermidor

Might be a bit up and down, but should be back by the end of 2010

I don't understand why people such as carolt become so hysterical over something they haven't got, and claim they don't want!:rotfl:

carolt

Never ever ever

Hysterical, lobster?

What's your other name, please, the one you normally post under?

As you claim to "know" me, yet I don't know you.

At least have the courage to post ad hominem attacks under your real name. :mad:

carolt

Never ever ever

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Ahhh, denial. Not just a river in Egypt.

According to Nationwide they have. Every month since February, and now up 9% from trough.

Land registry lags by months and includes non mortgage sales. Not surprising it shows less gains and for a shorter time. For current prices, for mortgage buyers, Nationwide is more accurate as a national average.

Interestingly though, the less noisy Land Registry quarterly series shows prices up 14% from the trough and now only 2.5% below peak.;) Though I suspect you'll find reasons to doubt that as well.....

Funny that - for the 2 areas I'm tracking, Land Registry prices are down 17% and 20% respectively, year-on-year.

I can't be arsed to check your figures at this time in the morning, though I'm sure someone will be around in a minute who will, but I'm 100% sure you're fibbing.

Source, please (to save me the trouble).

chucky

Some time after 2011

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

I haven't the figures right now but I recall that in the last crash which started around 1990, by 1993 prices rose for 6 months solid, before carrying on the downward trend. Some months were up, some down but overall they did not start recovering until April 1996.

i love your posts they bring up so many HPC urban myths that are totally inaccurate.

house prices did not rise for 6 months. they rose for 3 months from April 1991, then again for 2 months in October 1991 and they again by 2 months in Jan 1993. so not 6 months.

and from about mid 1991 there were no real year on year price drops over a few %
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/Monthly.xls

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

I ought to add that the thing which possibly led to the amount of distressed sellers in 1990 was the doubling of interest rates from around 7% to over 14%. Today we only need mortgage rates to hit 6% for that to happen again.

again you're wrong and another 'fact' that you've made up - you make it so easy Miserly to rip your posts to pieces.

interest rates were never at 7% in the the late 1980s or even early 1990s. they were always above 10% and reached around 15% in 1989
http://www.moneyextra.com/dictionary/interest-rate-history-003455.html

you really have to stop discrediting yourself each time you visit from HPC.co.uk

pickles110564

Some time after 2011

brit1234 wrote: »

All the basics economic data suggest we have much further to fall. The idea that house prices will continue to rise as people are scared to put on the market can not be maintained.

Bank lending depicts lending and it is below todays house prices unless you have large reserves of cash/equity or a ending govornment scheme.

Prices are going to fall again, it will be interesting to see if land registry figures show second month of falls.

Brit still no answer why you changed your Sig! :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Conrad

carolt wrote: »

If you want to believe that prices are just going to keep going upwards from here on, feel free. If it makes you happy, believe away.

Does'nt matter what any of us believe, tis the British public that will ensure rising prices, afterall where else to stick ones hard earned!

I don't get the whole eternal bear thang. I was a bear in 04-08*, but this eternal bear status seems bordering insanity. Thanks to you know who for digging up the link.

*13-07-2005, 2:35 PM #13 Conrad
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Ive sold all my B2Ls over the last 12 months.
With investment you need to understand a basic principle; 'Buy on the rumour, sell on the news'. Now that B2L is big news and everyones at it, I made the decision it was high time to bail out. The last property sold has dropped 15% in value in the last 12 months. This unstoppable motion is spreading and will really be big news over the next 12 months. There is lots of new development flooding the market, and too many people are trying to sell to too few buyers.

My Stock Market Unit Trusts have gone up over 30% in the last 24 months, because I carried on buying into the SM when it was unpopular. You need to wait until property becomes unpopular (no - one was buying after the last crash), or if u do buy now its going to be long wait for any returns IMO.

Any true investor is not currently buying property in the UK. Buying abroad is far better, for example land (no rent hassle) in up and comming areas such as the Cape Verde islands. Bulgaria etc are not for me.

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