Likelihood of UK double-dip downturn dwindles

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

twaddle to suit

there are plenty good books you need to read before you start trying to preach devon.

Ok, well if you are such the genius you appear to be, as your always trying to say I know nothing, how about instead of all this bluff, you just answer the point I posed to you.

Shoulnd't be too much of a task for someone of your stature now should it.

I take it you won't though, as your now, conviniently, a bear.

mewbie_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I take it you won't though, as your now, conviniently, a bear.

Yeah, and I'm now a bull. Happy days are here again, economy up, green sprouts, HPI is back and I'm off to buy four BTL's. Chucky lighten up, for once just be positive about things.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Ok, well if you are such the genius you appear to be, as your always trying to say I know nothing, how about instead of all this bluff, you just answer the point I posed to you.

Shoulnd't be too much of a task for someone of your stature now should it.

I take it you won't though, as your now, conviniently, a bear.

stature and calling me a genius, you really have all the lines.

and remind me where i said i was bear... i said bearish in attitude.
you do really love to twist everything just to cause an argument.


if you'd like to know more about me send me a PM and we can discuss instead of all this open forum stuff that you seem to enjoy and get a kick out of.

Graham_Devon

Thanks for the waffle.

And the question?

See this is the thing. Ask the same question over and over again "how are we gong to cope without stimulus" and you just get reams of diversion.

Guess it's up to Really2 or Conrad if you can't answer.

I honestly would be very interested in the "optimists" view on this (is that better Chucky, or have we got definitions to talk about). Unsure I will ever get it.

This isn't an argument chucky, this was a simple question asked of you.

mewbie_2

Low rates - low housing sales.
Scrappage scheme - low car sales.
Artificial stimulus - 2.5 million unemployed.

Heck Graham, we must have got it wrong. Once they remove the stimulus - things will just get better and better.

Graham_Devon

mewbie wrote: »

Low rates - low housing sales.
Scrappage scheme - low car sales.
Artificial stimulus - 2.5 million unemployed.

Heck Graham, we must have got it wrong. Once they remove the stimulus - things will just get better and better.

Don't worry about all that, thats just noise, we got spirit innit. :beer:

chucky

lemonjelly wrote: »

2 very interesting responses here.



Strangely Chucky, I'm interested in the bit I've highlighted. Can I ask what this means? I'm assuming it is along the lines of Really2 a month or so ago, saying that he/she felt I was the least VI poster on here (do I come across that way? Possibly a bad question on a thread dangerously meandering near teabagging).

FWIW I do think there is the real potential for it to get worse before better, and yes, worse than it has been so far. My reasoning for this is because I feel the personal debt issue still has yet to hit home (may well be 12 months off).



See part 2 of the above insert where I say I do feel things could get worse before better. I know the arguements about unemployment lagging etc, but unemployment going up cannot be a good thing, and surely has the potential to destabilise. What is different now is that in past recessions people haven't had the debt burden today's have. That is a new factor. I think this new factor could affect us all.

you come across as balanced because you listen to both sides of the debate and make a decision from there; instead of some who make a decision depending on who the poster is. i guess you have a personality and character which a couple of the most vocal negative posters don't.

there is always potential for things to get worse. the government stimulus has stabilised a lot of the issues and will be there to a point where it's no longer necessary and the economy is in a position to look after itself. the decision to do this will need very good timing. do the current incumbents have this in them - i don't know but they're in a better position than Mr Cameron or the Lib Dems (minus Mr Cable) who are just watching from the sidelines trying to get political brownie points instead of talking economic sense.

i agree the personal debt issue is a problem. i know it's being reduced slowly but until it needs to be paid it will just be an obstacle to get over rather than a Lehmans type issue for example.what i'm saying is that it is a problem and is one area that will curb the level of growth that we have instead of bringing us back into recession again.

commercial property is a bigger issue for many of the banks by the way

mewbie_2

chucky wrote: »

the government stimulus has stabilised a lot of the issues and will be there to a point where it's no longer necessary and the economy is in a position to look after itself.

You base this on what? Something you hope will happen? Or do you know what the financial picture will be over the next five years?

Debt
Commodity prices
Inflation
Strength of Sterling
UK recovery prospects
Taxes
Spending

You really know how all this unfolds?

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Thanks for the waffle.

And the question?

See this is the thing. Ask the same question over and over again "how are we gong to cope without stimulus" and you just get reams of diversion.

Guess it's up to Really2 or Conrad if you can't answer.

I honestly would be very interested in the "optimists" view on this (is that better Chucky, or have we got definitions to talk about). Unsure I will ever get it.

This isn't an argument chucky, this was a simple question asked of you.

you really do look for arguments everywhere don't you.

look at my post to LJ if you're interested -

as father Purch said you reap what you sow. your sarcam and attitude of your post is probably the reason that most people laugh and discredit your posts immediately. because of comments like these "Thanks for the waffle." and "(is that better Chucky, or have we got definitions to talk about). Unsure I will ever get it."

chucky

mewbie wrote: »

You base this on what? Something you hope will happen? Or do you know what the financial picture will be over the next five years?

Debt
Commodity prices
Inflation
Strength of Sterling
UK recovery prospects
Taxes
Spending

You really know how all this unfolds?

no sorry, only NearlyNew provides guarantees - i can only give my opinion, experiences and from what i have studied.