Likelihood of UK double-dip downturn dwindles

Really2

lemonjelly wrote: »

On the one side, a la the classic digestive.

Perhaps us midlanders are more sophisticated with our snacks;)

lemonjelly

2 very interesting responses here.

chucky wrote: »

ahhh but you're a balanced poster - will it be worse than it already has been?
i don't think it will get that bad.

many predicted/hoped for sterling to crash and the IMF to come in to rescue the UK, unemployment to hit 6 million, repos to get to 500,000 a year, house prices to crash 70%, oil to go back to $140 a barrel, the FTSE to get somewhere around 2,000 etc etc etc i'm still waiting for any of these to happen - we're in a bad way but no-where near as many on here would like you to think.

Strangely Chucky, I'm interested in the bit I've highlighted. Can I ask what this means? I'm assuming it is along the lines of Really2 a month or so ago, saying that he/she felt I was the least VI poster on here (do I come across that way? Possibly a bad question on a thread dangerously meandering near teabagging).

FWIW I do think there is the real potential for it to get worse before better, and yes, worse than it has been so far. My reasoning for this is because I feel the personal debt issue still has yet to hit home (may well be 12 months off).

Really2 wrote: »

Neither am I, but I also do not think this is or will be worse than the 1920's crash.

The past gave us models to deal with the future. Much of the current measures would have evolved from how they saw the 1920's crash develop.
All sorted means back to pre 2007 levels, that will be years off.
But I think for sure we are past the worst and heading out of recession.

I will be bold to say in real and actual terms also this will not be as bad as the 1920's crash. (As bold as anyone saying it will be:))

See part 2 of the above insert where I say I do feel things could get worse before better. I know the arguements about unemployment lagging etc, but unemployment going up cannot be a good thing, and surely has the potential to destabilise. What is different now is that in past recessions people haven't had the debt burden today's have. That is a new factor. I think this new factor could affect us all.

inspector_monkfish

= sophistication


= something you might find on Last of The summer Wine...


its just wrong !!

tomterm8

Erm, OK, *cough* twinkies hobnobs *splutter* with a white chocolate topping.

Splended.

lemonjelly

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

= sophistication


= something you might find on Last of The summer Wine...


its just wrong !!

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Wouldn't mind so much, but you go & post a pic with the same packaging I have in my desk drawer!!!!!

inspector_monkfish

lemonjelly wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Wouldn't mind so much, but you go & post a pic with the same packaging I have in my desk drawer!!!!!

'ELKES'
never heard of them... they just sound Northern !!;):D

Really2

lemonjelly wrote: »

What is different now is that in past recessions people haven't had the debt burden today's have. That is a new factor. I think this new factor could affect us all.

I agree that is also why we will see slow growth and low IR's for a fairly long time. Don't forget governments have a high debt burden also (perhaps another reason why we will not raise rates to rashly)

I have said it before "it is now time for the long pay back"

tomterm8

Given the rumours are now circulating about a 10% cut in public spending over the next three years, and the fact credit looks like it is actually starting to contract, I really wonder how people can be so optomistic. What's been saving the economy is a bucket load of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Now, we are going to replace it with fiscal contraction. Um, so how is the chance of a double dip recession lower this month than last month?

Its precisely removing the fiscal stimulus too early that made the great depression "great". At the comparable stage in the "great depression", the contraction was only really quite moderate.

Really2

tomterm8 wrote: »

the fact credit looks like it is actually starting to contract

Is it though, TBH I have not seen the figures but New mortgage lending for sure is increasing.

Conrad

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How can we just about dodge the biggest disaster ever known, and have a slight blip, then (as we are seeing now) an upsurge in growth.

What is this growth based on?


If it's all good, solid growth from here, then stop spending oodles of money bolstering up services and the economy.

Ruined your day has it old boy:rotfl:

As I've been saying to you and the other eternal pessimists, the Human spirit will conquer.

We need to maintain QE as an insurance and to keep the momentum and underpin public confidence.