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Likelihood of UK double-dip downturn dwindles
inspector_monkfish
Posts: 9,276 Forumite
13:15 16Sep09 POLL-UK Q3 2009 GDP SEEN AT +0.3 PCT (+0.1 PCT IN AUG POLL)
13:15 16Sep09 POLL-UK GDP SEEN -4.4 PCT IN 2009, +1.1 PCT IN 2010 (-4.5, +1.0 IN AUG POLL)
13:15 16Sep09 POLL-UK CPI SEEN +2.0 PCT IN 2009, +1.9 PCT IN 2010 (+1.9, +1.7 IN AUG POLL)
13:15 16Sep09 POLL-BOE RATES SEEN ON HOLD AT 0.5 PCT TO END Q2-2010 (SAME AS SEPT 3 POLL)
13:19 16Sep09 POLL-Likelihood of UK double-dip downturn dwindles
* British growth forecasts upgraded
* 25 pct chance double-dip recession, down from 29 pct
* BoE seen holding rates until July at the earliest
LONDON, Sept 16 - The chances of a double-dip
recession in the UK have receded and the economic outlook has
brightened, according to the latest Reuters poll, despite
prevailing gloom among policymakers at the Bank of England.
The median forecast of around 35 economists questioned over
the past week in the monthly Reuters outlook for the UK showed
the economy growing 0.3 percent this quarter, compared to just
0.1 percent growth forecast in an August poll.
"Forward-looking indicators are pointing to economic
recovery and we expect growth to return in Q3," said Philip
Shaw, chief economist at Investec.
While the economy is seen shrinking 4.4 percent this year,
the outlook for 2010 has also been upgraded and economists now
see growth of 1.1 percent as opposed to the 1.0 percent growth
predicted last month.
In the August poll, the economy was expected to contract 4.5
percent this year.
A slew of upbeat data has boosted confidence. Activity in
Britain's dominant service sector grew at its fastest pace in
two years in August, retailers are reporting consumer spending
picking up and exports rose by 5 percent in July.
But the Bank of England warned on Tuesday it would take a
long time for the economy to recover fully and that it may be
forced to take extra steps to boost growth.
The outlook for the UK is slightly better than in the euro
zone, which is expected to grow 1.0 percent next year but
considerably behind the United States which is seen growing 2.3
percent in 2010 on an annualised basis.
The British central bank has slashed rates to near-zero and
has almost completed an unprecedented 175 billion pound
programme of buying government bonds outright, known as
quantitative easing, to revive the battered economy.
Economists were relatively confident these measures would
succeed, giving only a one in four chance of a double-dip
recession, down from a 29 percent chance given last month.
However, the range of growth forecasts remains relatively
wide, from 4.1 to 4.8 percent contraction for 2009 and between a
0.1 percent contraction and 2.8 percent growth for 2010.
Stock markets have bounced in recent months on the more
optimistic outlook with Britain's FTSE index <.FTSE> of leading
shares breaking the 5,000 mark last week for the first time
since October.
INFLATION INFLATES
While the economy may be over the worst, the outlook for the
job market remains tough with the unemployment rate seen peaking
at 9.5 percent towards the end of next year, compared to 9.6
percent predicted last month.
Data released earlier on Wednesday showed unemployment was
running at a 12-year high of 7.9 percent in July and the Bank of
England is unlikely to raise rates any time soon.
Median forecasts from around 60 economists show base
interest rates on hold at the record low 0.5 percent through to
July at least, in line with a poll taken earlier this month
[BOE/INT]
"Despite recent more favourable indicators, we remain
cautious about the pace of recovery in 2010 and therefore
continue to expect base rates to remain on hold until mid-2010,"
said John Hawksworth at PwC.
Data released on Tuesday showed British inflation slowed
less than expected to 0.4 percent in August, with the annual
rate at 1.6 percent.
Economists see it peaking just above the Bank of England's
two percent target early next year before tailing off, but in
nine out of the last 13 months inflation has been higher than
economists expected.
Inflation is seen averaging 2.0 percent this year and then
falling to 1.9 percent in 2010, up from last month's 1.9 and 1.7
percent forecasts.
BoE Governor Mervyn King told a parliamentary hearing on
Tuesday that inflation was likely to undershoot target over the
medium term.
13:15 16Sep09 POLL-UK GDP SEEN -4.4 PCT IN 2009, +1.1 PCT IN 2010 (-4.5, +1.0 IN AUG POLL)
13:15 16Sep09 POLL-UK CPI SEEN +2.0 PCT IN 2009, +1.9 PCT IN 2010 (+1.9, +1.7 IN AUG POLL)
13:15 16Sep09 POLL-BOE RATES SEEN ON HOLD AT 0.5 PCT TO END Q2-2010 (SAME AS SEPT 3 POLL)
13:19 16Sep09 POLL-Likelihood of UK double-dip downturn dwindles
* British growth forecasts upgraded
* 25 pct chance double-dip recession, down from 29 pct
* BoE seen holding rates until July at the earliest
LONDON, Sept 16 - The chances of a double-dip
recession in the UK have receded and the economic outlook has
brightened, according to the latest Reuters poll, despite
prevailing gloom among policymakers at the Bank of England.
The median forecast of around 35 economists questioned over
the past week in the monthly Reuters outlook for the UK showed
the economy growing 0.3 percent this quarter, compared to just
0.1 percent growth forecast in an August poll.
"Forward-looking indicators are pointing to economic
recovery and we expect growth to return in Q3," said Philip
Shaw, chief economist at Investec.
While the economy is seen shrinking 4.4 percent this year,
the outlook for 2010 has also been upgraded and economists now
see growth of 1.1 percent as opposed to the 1.0 percent growth
predicted last month.
In the August poll, the economy was expected to contract 4.5
percent this year.
A slew of upbeat data has boosted confidence. Activity in
Britain's dominant service sector grew at its fastest pace in
two years in August, retailers are reporting consumer spending
picking up and exports rose by 5 percent in July.
But the Bank of England warned on Tuesday it would take a
long time for the economy to recover fully and that it may be
forced to take extra steps to boost growth.
The outlook for the UK is slightly better than in the euro
zone, which is expected to grow 1.0 percent next year but
considerably behind the United States which is seen growing 2.3
percent in 2010 on an annualised basis.
The British central bank has slashed rates to near-zero and
has almost completed an unprecedented 175 billion pound
programme of buying government bonds outright, known as
quantitative easing, to revive the battered economy.
Economists were relatively confident these measures would
succeed, giving only a one in four chance of a double-dip
recession, down from a 29 percent chance given last month.
However, the range of growth forecasts remains relatively
wide, from 4.1 to 4.8 percent contraction for 2009 and between a
0.1 percent contraction and 2.8 percent growth for 2010.
Stock markets have bounced in recent months on the more
optimistic outlook with Britain's FTSE index <.FTSE> of leading
shares breaking the 5,000 mark last week for the first time
since October.
INFLATION INFLATES
While the economy may be over the worst, the outlook for the
job market remains tough with the unemployment rate seen peaking
at 9.5 percent towards the end of next year, compared to 9.6
percent predicted last month.
Data released earlier on Wednesday showed unemployment was
running at a 12-year high of 7.9 percent in July and the Bank of
England is unlikely to raise rates any time soon.
Median forecasts from around 60 economists show base
interest rates on hold at the record low 0.5 percent through to
July at least, in line with a poll taken earlier this month
[BOE/INT]
"Despite recent more favourable indicators, we remain
cautious about the pace of recovery in 2010 and therefore
continue to expect base rates to remain on hold until mid-2010,"
said John Hawksworth at PwC.
Data released on Tuesday showed British inflation slowed
less than expected to 0.4 percent in August, with the annual
rate at 1.6 percent.
Economists see it peaking just above the Bank of England's
two percent target early next year before tailing off, but in
nine out of the last 13 months inflation has been higher than
economists expected.
Inflation is seen averaging 2.0 percent this year and then
falling to 1.9 percent in 2010, up from last month's 1.9 and 1.7
percent forecasts.
BoE Governor Mervyn King told a parliamentary hearing on
Tuesday that inflation was likely to undershoot target over the
medium term.
Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
(MSE Andrea says ok!)
(MSE Andrea says ok!)
0
Comments
-
Whatever these pollsters are saying, the market seems to be in overdrive ATM.In case you hadn't already worked it out - the entire global financial system is predicated on the assumption that you're an idiot:cool:0
-
I dont think I have ever read so much bull.Not Again0
-
1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »I dont think I have ever read so much bull.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
mooooooooPlease take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
(MSE Andrea says ok!)0 -
I'm wondering who these 35 economists actually are.
How can we just about dodge the biggest disaster ever known, and have a slight blip, then (as we are seeing now) an upsurge in growth.
What is this growth based on?
Indeed, if this is all possible and we can see this massive surge upwards (houses, markets etc), why on earth are we still stimulating the economy with money creation? If it's not, and all this stimulus is still needed, stop trying to force the blinkers onto the population.
If it's all good, solid growth from here, then stop spending oodles of money bolstering up services and the economy.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »
I'm wondering who these 35 economists actually are.
There are 7 Tarquins, 5 Jontys, a couple of Julians, several Lucindas, a Hermoine, a Porcsha, a few Ruperts, and some bloke called Dave from Romford.Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
(MSE Andrea says ok!)0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »I'm wondering who these 35 economists actually are.
Thats what I think.
Its probably the "slight blip" "all over by March" guys...Not Again0 -
The median forecast of around 35 economists questioned over
the past week in the monthly Reuters outlook for the UK showed
the economy growing 0.3 percent this quarter, compared to just
0.1 percent growth forecast in an August poll.
If they can't even manage to count the number of Economists they polled, how can we be expected to take this 'forecast' seriously !!!!
(Errr...it might have been 35, ummm it was at least 30 I'm sure......errr did we ask that bloke with the curly hair twice ?? ..... oh I don't know, say around 35, that's close enough !!!!)'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »I
How can we just about dodge the biggest disaster ever known
To be fair I don't think it was ever banded as that.
It was at peak of things banded as comparable to the 20's financial collapse.
A recession will never be the biggest disaster ever known. On the scale of disasters this ranks pretty low to me.0 -
I guess you are still in work then? Lucky you :T
Or wasn't at any of the following more like.:rolleyes:
2001 September the 11th
2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake/Tsunami
2005 Hurricane Katrina
2004 rings to me of disaster with 250,000+ losing their life, Kind puts some perspective on the use of the word I think.
Unless you think this is thebiggest ever disaster
0
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