Likelihood of UK double-dip downturn dwindles

lemonjelly

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

'ELKES'
never heard of them... they just sound Northern !!;):D

We ay northern tho, am we?

Conrad

lemonjelly wrote: »

I'm fairly confident there are those who would agree that we've merely postponed the worst. QUOTE]


As I predicted a long time ago, the permapessimists would start to use this line in the upswing.

So let's look forward to the threads on 'The comming crash of 1015'

tomterm8

Yes it really does look like it will, Really2. Go on the bank of englands website, look up the aggregate lending statistics... latest figures were out in July, at 0.9% growth, with consumer credit contracting for the first time since the 1990's. The growth rate in total private lending has been falling every month since 2007, when in July 2007 it was growing faster than 10%. If you add to that the fact that the latest BOE lending trend showed both applications for consumer credit & acceptances of applications for consumer credit declining, I think the decline in consumer credit will start overwhelming new mortgage lending. I hope that the BOE can counteract this trend.

From what I can tell, the statistics on new mortgage lending are also somewhat flawed, because they include remortgaging. And, lets face it, a lot of people expect that interest rates are going to rise soon.

Conrad wrote: »

As I predicted a long time ago, the permapessimists would start to use this line in the upswing.
'

As I remember, around christmas there was a poll on here about when the recession would end, and I went for Q4 this year. So, I'm 1Q off. I remember a lot of people thinking I was stupid for being that optomistic at the time.

StevieJ

tomterm8 wrote: »

From what I can tell, the statistics on new mortgage lending are also somewhat flawed, because they include remortgaging. And, lets face it, a lot of people expect that interest rates are going to rise soon.

I would have thought the opposite, we have been told that base rate is staying where it is for the forseeable, I for one wouldn't wish to switch off my 1.45% interest rate at the moment

purch

So let's look forward to the threads on 'The comming crash of 1015'

Is that AM or PM

tomterm8

I guess it depends how much you trust the b****rs, Stevie. I don't have a clue when interest rates will change, and I don't think the BoE has much clue either. But I don't think we are guaranteed to have much warning when it happens.

Ironically, if my doom and gloom is right, then interest rates won't change very much for years. If Conrad is right, its probably best to fix now.

lostinrates

I made DH chocolate digestives this week. He assures me they are the best dunking biscuit he's ever had. I don'tlike chocolate dunked.

Disaster is running ouof frizzease.

Graham_Devon

Conrad wrote: »

Ruined your day has it old boy:rotfl:

As I've been saying to you and the other eternal pessimists, the Human spirit will conquer.

We need to maintain QE as an insurance and to keep the momentum and underpin public confidence.

Human spirit?!

That's a new one.

"this time it's different, we have spirit & fairy money lads".

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm wondering who these 35 economists actually are.

How can we just about dodge the biggest disaster ever known, and have a slight blip, then (as we are seeing now) an upsurge in growth.

What is this growth based on?

Indeed, if this is all possible and we can see this massive surge upwards (houses, markets etc), why on earth are we still stimulating the economy with money creation? If it's not, and all this stimulus is still needed, stop trying to force the blinkers onto the population.

If it's all good, solid growth from here, then stop spending oodles of money bolstering up services and the economy.

Maybe you should listen to these people, you might have made a few quid

In his latest prognosis on the market Anthony Bolton believes the equity bull market has begun.
Speaking in an interview on Bloomberg television, Bolton said: 'Things are in place for the bear market to have ended. When there’s a strong consensus, a very negative one, and cash positions are very high, as they are at the moment, I’d like to bet against that.'

http://citywire.co.uk/selector/-/news/comment/content.aspx?ID=339259

"The 'giant error of pessimism' is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1408/

lemonjelly

Conrad wrote: »

lemonjelly wrote: »

I'm fairly confident there are those who would agree that we've merely postponed the worst. QUOTE]


As I predicted a long time ago, the permapessimists would start to use this line in the upswing.

So let's look forward to the threads on 'The comming crash of 1015'

EH?
Bit worried about your maths, if you're a mortgage adviser.

Wouldn't describe myself as a pessimist. Trying to be realistic. Easy credit has been freely available, and been overly used and accessed for a period of 10-12 years or more. Credit has been used by millions at unsustainable levels. To suggest that a 6 month correction has addressed this imbalance is, to me, worryingly naive. I really do doubt we're now on an even keel. To me, the personal debt issue still has to be addressed/hit home. If & when it does, bankruptcies will increase (by a lot more than recent trends), and financial institutions will have to deal with a lot more write-downs. This raises the possibility of credit crunch wave 2, & therefore a W shape.

Not impossible IMO.