Debate House Prices


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MSE News: House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

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  • Cleaver
    Cleaver Posts: 6,984 Forumite
    First Anniversary Combo Breaker
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    People will believe what they're told. If the media and local estate agents proclaim that prices will rise, people will believe that prices will rise. If the media and local estate agents say that prices will fall, people will believe that prices will fall. The vast majority can't think for themselves when it comes to the economy and housing.

    Patronising? Moi?
  • bluey890
    bluey890 Posts: 1,020 Forumite
    edited 4 September 2009 at 7:06PM
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    Full result for those interested.

    What do you think will happen to UK house prices over the next YEAR?

    A. Increase over 20%. (boom) 1% (117 votes)
    B. Increase 10-20%. (smaller boom) 3% (248 votes)
    C. Increase 5-10%. 13% (1206 votes)
    D. Increase 2-5%. 30% (2755 votes)
    E. No real change. 24% (2257 votes)
    F. Decrease 2-5%. 9% (879 votes)
    G. Decrease 5-10%. 8% (723 votes)
    H. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash). 4% (406 votes)
    I. Decrease over 20% (crash). 3% (299 votes)
    J. I really have no idea. 5% (431 votes)

    Total Votes: 9321
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  • bluey890
    bluey890 Posts: 1,020 Forumite
    edited 4 September 2009 at 7:13PM
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    Roughly three times as many extreme bears as extreme bulls. Interesting.
    Favourite hobbies: Watersports. Relaxing in Coffee Shop. Investing in stocks.
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  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
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    EDit just realised it was probably 1%, after checking yes it was 1% and 117 votes, what odds can I have that Hamish has 117 extended family members then?

    The funny thing is, in real life I'm the most bearish person I know, by a long shot.;)

    Most people I know think theres barely been a crash, and we'll be back at 2007 levels by next year. Of course in the case of Aberdeen, they're probably right. Decent places here are already back at 2007 prices.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • System
    System Posts: 178,116 Community Admin
    Photogenic Name Dropper First Post
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    That's what you call sentiment!
  • Cleaver
    Cleaver Posts: 6,984 Forumite
    First Anniversary Combo Breaker
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    mewbie wrote: »
    3. MSE says "back to normal next year"

    Whatever.

    Sorry to be a pedant again, but the figures don't say that either Mewbs. The vast majority (78% it appears) think that prices will be somewhere between -20% and +5% over the next year. That's quite a bearish view of the situation (especially when compared to the last ten years of HPI), and isn't really people giving the sign that things are back to normal.

    Maybe, just maybe, the users of this website have seen the recent rises, have seen base rates at 0.5%, have seen the work of the government to keep prices up and understand that the British public love their property. And on this evidence they have based their decision. That's only a theory of course, but it seems more viable than presuming that everyone thinks things are back to normal. Doesn't mean they think it's brilliant news of course.

    Of course I appreciate that the above view depends on us believing that the rest of this website just might be more accurate than 'we' on this boad, which I fully realise isn't a pleasant situation for many.
  • bumpoowee
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    bluey890 wrote: »
    Full result for those interested.

    What do you think will happen to UK house prices over the next YEAR?

    A. Increase over 20%. (boom) 1% (117 votes)
    B. Increase 10-20%. (smaller boom) 3% (248 votes)
    C. Increase 5-10%. 13% (1206 votes)
    D. Increase 2-5%. 30% (2755 votes)
    E. No real change. 24% (2257 votes)
    F. Decrease 2-5%. 9% (879 votes)
    G. Decrease 5-10%. 8% (723 votes)
    H. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash). 4% (406 votes)
    I. Decrease over 20% (crash). 3% (299 votes)
    J. I really have no idea. 5% (431 votes)

    Total Votes: 9321

    So this topic could equally be called 'MoneySavers predict house price crash' on the basis that more than more than one person voted for a 20% or more decrease.

    Could also have said '53% of MoneySavers predict house prices will not rise over the next year'.

    My theory is that Mr Lewis is buying the Wilson's portfolio and is trying to subvert opinion to help increase the value of his assets.
  • Gorgeous_George
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    Prices will do what prices will do. We have little control.

    Of course, reporting that prices may rise will encourage some people to buy now before it's too late. Report that prices will fall and you upset the Government as some people will hold off buying in the hope that your report is true.

    I just wouldn't want some people to base their house-buying decision on my guess.

    My guess is that prices will continue to fall - maybe by another 10%. After the next election, interest may well rise dramatically. The Tories will not help people to keep their homes. Maybe much larger falls will please the Tories as they can blame Labour.

    GG
    There are 10 types of people in this world. Those who understand binary and those that don't.
  • bluey890
    bluey890 Posts: 1,020 Forumite
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    Cleaver wrote: »
    Sorry to be a pedant again, but the figures don't say that either Mewbs. The vast majority (78% it appears) think that prices will be somewhere between -20% and +5% over the next year. That's quite a bearish view of the situation (especially when compared to the last ten years of HPI), and isn't really people giving the sign that things are back to normal.

    The vast majority (80% it appears) think that prices will be somewhere between -5% and +20% over the next year. :D
    Favourite hobbies: Watersports. Relaxing in Coffee Shop. Investing in stocks.
    Personality type: Compassionate Male Armadillo. Sockies: None.
  • mewbie_2
    mewbie_2 Posts: 6,058 Forumite
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    Cleaver wrote: »
    Sorry to be a pedant again...
    tbh I would give more credence to a poll on what MSEers favourite pick n mix was than their views on the housing market.
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