MSE news: Nationwide reports largest house price rise for over two years

Cannon_Fodder

mitchaa wrote: »

Very little, if any.

We are constantly told how great it is for so many mortgagees, around 40% I believe is mentioned, to be benefitting from trackers.

If its so great on reduction, how can it be anything other than bad on the increase...?

After all, not all of those are overpaying. (who can switch overpaying into normal paying, fair enough.)

But some will be spending the difference, maybe explaining car scrappage numbers, or the bright spots in retail, etc etc.

While others will barely have afforded it to begin with, thinking they had to buy before they missed the boat back then. So reduced trackers have just been a breathing space, that helped avoid increasing their other debts.

So when rates go back to "normal", when they have to set aside cash for the mortgage instead of spend it, when their negative equity prevents them from re-mortgaging, when their other debts are growing again...

I very much doubt its more than half who are clued up to overpay in our consumerist society. Pulled out of thin air, but not unreasonably so...?

So 20% of mortgagees will reduce spending, increase debt, fail to re-mortgage cheaply, etc etc.

...that's very little impact?

Lotus-eater

mitchaa wrote: »

Some people over analyse In my opinion it's as simple as what an average earning working couple can afford at 3.5x combined salaries as to where the average price should be at and have said that all along.

I understand your thinking, I just believe that when kids come along, what you say can be afforded, can't.
This is why so many couples have put off having kids, or get into trouble when they come along.

I think the next important figures will be the ones for next spring, alot of stuff will have gone on by then and if the bounce in spring cancels out the drop which is sure to happen this winter and shows rises, I will agree that the crash looks like being over.
Until then I'm going to click the "given up" button.

geoffky

I have still not seen one house rise in price in my area in over two years..and the others coming on to market are at lower prices than the ones that have hanged around for two years...this is true and the price rises that nationwide say leave me scratching my head..

neas

If my circumstances didn't force me to 'not buy a house' for 2 years... i'd be paying attention to these figures in next 3-4 months for sure .

Unfortunately dont have a crystal ball and cant commit at the moment . Still got a nice little deposit saved ready for when Wife and I can commit to buying a home.

In my opinion... the fundamentals say prices should fall.. but obviously theres loads of factors to take into account:

- Greed and Stupidiy and current HPI situations (Prices rise alot)
- Low interest rates encouraging prop up of market (prices rise)
- Interest rates ramp back up in 1-1.5% jumps (prices stagnate/fall)
- Unemployment rises (prices stagnate/fall)
- Inflation takes hold (prices stagnate... but inflation means they fall)


In general... its a mixed bag and I wouldnt bet on which way they'd go... because the HPI we had before... was allowed to happen... did happen and the insanity prob will happen again whether now.. 5 years or 20 years.

chrishoar

And nobody thought the banks would go bust. The irony is true free market economics are not being applied yet to the housing market, it is being propped up by temporary indirect state aid and false sentiment. Denial is rife and the vested interests are doing their upmost to spin a positive line. Let alone the drastic decline in the amount of actual sales going through which in itself renders the figures useless. When the full market forces are applied to the housing market, probably sometime after the election we will witness an almighty crash, and house prices will in time return to their average growth line. Its free market economics my friends.

chucky

geoffky wrote: »

I have still not seen one house rise in price in my area in over two years..and the others coming on to market are at lower prices than the ones that have hanged around for two years...this is true and the price rises that nationwide say leave me scratching my head..

the Nationwide index has house prices at Feb/Mar 2006.

geoffky

If anyone thinks this is the end of a price correction then they should be locked up...wait until all the things the government has thrown at the market wears off..this winter and beyond will be proof of the pudding....

chucky

geoffky wrote: »

If anyone thinks this is the end of a price correction then they should be locked up...wait until all the things the government has thrown at the market wears off..this winter and beyond will be proof of the pudding....

how long do dead cat bounces last geoffrey?
this one has gone on for 6 months now...

StevieJ

chrishoar wrote: »

And nobody thought the banks would go bust. The irony is true free market economics are not being applied yet to the housing market, it is being propped up by temporary indirect state aid and false sentiment. Denial is rife and the vested interests are doing their upmost to spin a positive line. Let alone the drastic decline in the amount of actual sales going through which in itself renders the figures useless. When the full market forces are applied to the housing market, probably sometime after the election we will witness an almighty crash, and house prices will in time return to their average growth line. Its free market economics my friends.

Slow day on HPC is it?

chrishoar

Whats HPC?