MSE news: Nationwide reports largest house price rise for over two years 13 August 2009 at 12:17PM edited 27 August 2009 at 9:59AM in Debate House Prices & the Economy 363 replies 4.8K views

Former_MSE_Guy

This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"Nationwide has reported a 1.6% rise in typical property values during August.

Over the previous three months, average prices jumped by 3.3%, the highest quarter-year rise since February 2007 ..."

Read the full story:
Nationwide reports largest house price rise for over two years




[FONT=&quot]This thread discussion had already started before the news story was published. We’ve inserted this post so all the discussion can be in one place. Thanks to Dan: for the original post.[/FONT]

Dan:_4

Full report

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2009.pdf

PasturesNew

1.6 is just stupid.

Dan:_4

Only 5 of us were correct over on the prediction thread:

More then 1%:

Dan:, HAMISH_MCTAVISH, Thrugelmir, Vincenzo, halight

Dan:_4

PasturesNew wrote: »

1.6 is just stupid.

Yes, because today the average house prices smashes passed £160000

pawpurrs

Noooooooooooooooo........ What is going on?

inspector_monkfish

07:00 27Aug09 -UK NATIONWIDE AUG HOUSE PRICE INDEX +1.6 PCT MM, -2.7 PCT YY, BIGGEST MM JUMP IN 2-1/2 YRS
07:00 27Aug09 -UK house prices up 1.6 pct mm in Aug, fastest in 2-1/2 yrs

LONDON, Aug 27 - British house prices rose for the fourth month running and at their fastest monthly rate in 2-1/2 years in August, the Nationwide Building Society said on Thursday, in a further sign the housing market is picking up.

The mortgage lender said house prices rose 1.6 percent this month after a 1.4 percent rise in July. This too the annual rate of decline down to 2.7 percent -- its smallest since April 2008 -- from 6.2 percent and leaving the average price of a home at 160,224 pounds ($262,000).

House prices have been supported recently by a lack of homes coming onto the market, alongside a tentative pick-up in interest from people wanting to buy. Other surveys have also shown prices picking up from last year's slump.

Nationwide chief economist Martin Gahbauer said record low interest rates had prevented homeowners from falling into arrears with their mortgages and therefore meant fewer people were forced to sell their homes than in past downturns.

This had contributed to moving the balance of supply and demand more in favour of sellers this year, he noted.

"However, the eventual exit from exceptionally loose monetary policy could make the recovery in the housing market bumpier than some might expect after the last few months of price increases," Gahbauer said.

baileysbattlebus

I didn't vote in the poll on this - I don't generally try and predict what is going to happen to house prices, ths stats usually speak for themselves. Though in my bones I thought they would be down a bit this month.

I'm not a bull or a bear - though tbh I suppose I am bit more bullish than bearish - but even so I am a bit surprised.

Is the spring or dead cat bounce going to carry through to the autumn?

Cleaver

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

Is the spring or dead cat bounce going to carry through to the autumn?

I think we need to rename the above the 'more alive than we thought cat bounce' and the 'springsummerandnowautumn bounce'.

Regarding the figures, it's just very clear how much British folk just love expensive houses isn't it?

Dan:_4

I am now more convinced then ever that we have passed the bottom. Sure, it is highly likely we will see some falls during the winter months, but I now predict that prices will not fall below the February 2009 figure, as you can see in my new signature.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

Is the spring or dead cat bounce going to carry through to the autumn?

By definition a spring bounce would have ended many months ago.... A dead cat bounce would be a blip within a downwards trend, and also wouldn't have lasted 7 months.

This is far different.

This is the recovery.

We will see falls over winter, but they will be downwards blips within an upwards trend.