MSE news: Nationwide reports largest house price rise for over two years

inspector_monkfish

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

House prices have been supported recently by a lack of homes coming onto the market, alongside a tentative pick-up in interest from people wanting to buy. Other surveys have also shown prices picking up from last year's slump.

Just 5 houses have come on the market in the past fortnight in my area.

Dan:_4

The BBC are on the case, Front page on the website, and main story on BBC Breakfast

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8223540.stm

inspector_monkfish

From BBC website:

Mr Gahbauer added that as a result, fewer second-hand properties had come onto the market "than is normally the case in recessions", which moved the balance of supply and demand "more in favour of sellers over the course of 2009".

At the same time, he said lower interest rates had improved the affordability of mortgages for first-time buyers.

However, he cautioned that when interest rates ultimately start to rise again as the wider economy recovers, the strong house price increases of recent months "would become difficult to sustain".

"The eventual exit from exceptionally loose monetary policy could make the recovery in the housing market bumpier than some might expect after the last few months of price increases," said Mr Gahbauer.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Kreator wrote: »

still the figures are there so they can't really be argued with.

On a house price board? I'm sure someone will try....:rotfl:

I noticed the other day when the mortgages went up to 38k per month that apparently 30k of them were remortgages. That leaves just 8k of new mortgaging, is that low ? or normal ?

I think you misinterpreted the figures. And the bba figures are only partial.

The BoE figures are comprehensive but not released yet. Last month they were 55K, and 76K houses sold according to HMRC.

The 55K figures are mortgages for purchase, not remortgages.

I'd be interested to see how FTB'rs are coming back into the market, 25% deposit seems to be required for a half decent mortgage rate, how are people finding an average of 40k deposit in this economic climate ? It is amazing.

Bank of mum and dad, or granny and grandad.

There are roughly 11 million mortgage free houses, and many more millions with big equity.

You only need around 300K of those a year to leverage some equity for junior to sustain FTB's indefinately at todays levels.

Thats only around 2.5% of them per year at todays sales volumes, or only 5% if volumes double....

If volumes double, we have a 20 year supply of bank of mum and dad.

:beer:

Dan:_4

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

However, he cautioned that when interest rates ultimately start to rise again as the wider economy recovers, the strong house price increases of recent months "would become difficult to sustain".

This would be a good thing.

What we need is a period of stagnation, it would be best for everyone concerned.

Good holiday inspector?

Dan:_4

It's all tears over at HPC.co.uk this morning.

:rotfl:

inspector_monkfish

Dan: wrote: »

This would be a good thing.

What we need is a period of stagnation, it would be best for everyone concerned.

Good holiday inspector?

that would depend on how long the 'difficult to sustain' period eventually goes on for

yes thanks, had a great holiday

baileysbattlebus

Kreator wrote: »

I was wrong, these figures are amazing as every other part of the economy seems to be reversing, still the figures are there so they can't really be argued with. I noticed the other day when the mortgages went up to 38k per month that apparently 30k of them were remortgages. That leaves just 8k of new mortgaging, is that low ? or normal ?

I'd be interested to see how FTB'rs are coming back into the market, 25% deposit seems to be required for a half decent mortgage rate, how are people finding an average of 40k deposit in this economic climate ? It is amazing.

I find it quite surprising how much money FTB's are able to put down as a deposit too.

Here is a chart of the average deposit - going back to 1988 - the FTB's deposit has been steadily growing (apart from the odd blip) - I was quite surprised at that too - as I used to think FTB's struggled to find 5 or 10%.

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/xls/chart540.xls

Edit: Just read Hamish's post on quoting the Bank of Mum and Dad.

Dan:_4

Kreator wrote: »

I was wrong, these figures are amazing as every other part of the economy seems to be reversing, still the figures are there so they can't really be argued with. I noticed the other day when the mortgages went up to 38k per month that apparently 30k of them were remortgages. That leaves just 8k of new mortgaging, is that low ? or normal ?

I'd be interested to see how FTB'rs are coming back into the market, 25% deposit seems to be required for a half decent mortgage rate, how are people finding an average of 40k deposit in this economic climate ? It is amazing.

A 25% deposit for the best mortgage rates in nothing new.

Currently with a 10% deposit, you can get a fixed rate of around 7%, again this rate is nothing new for a small deposit.

FTBers have been saving hard during 2008/09 while the crash unfolded, and now is the time to buy, as you can see.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Dan: wrote: »

It's all tears over at HPC.co.uk this morning.

:rotfl:

They were actually too depressed to post this morning for a while. Stunned silence ruled around 7 am.

Half of them are brushing it off with "wait til X-Mas grumpiness", and the other half are trying not to shoot themselves or each other in "bear in despair" postings on the "have we got it wrong" threads.

Can't decide if they're in the denial, fear or anger stages, but nor can they I suspect......:rotfl:

It is absolutely brilliant that all the bulls that were banned have now been so thoroughly vindicated though.

Not that it helps any of the poor FTB's that may have stumbled across the site and lost £13,000 by listening to those muppets in the meantime though. Genuinely sad.

Their arguments had no veracity. Obvious to everyone but them....;)