MSE news: Nationwide reports largest house price rise for over two years

mitchaa

There were only 4-5 of us through the thick of this.

How tables have turned eh;)

Dan, what are Nationwides down from peak figures showing now? 15%?

Dan:_4

StevieJ wrote: »

They will only increase to the levels at which people took out their mortgage originally and only when the recession is a memory, do you not remember the STR brigade saying 'wait until they come off those two year fixes' (assuming interest rates would be a lot higher) well they did and were very happy

:rotfl:Oh yes, they were supposed to get a shock of a lifetime. WFT? loved banging on about this one.

Cannon_Fodder

Wasn't the Bank of Mum and Dad already pretty stretched at the peak?

With Housing Equity Withdrawal in the negative to the tune of £8Bn, is there really a long-term, substantial pool of cash to call on?

It might be a factor, as cash buyers are generally - STRs, investors etc.

But to underpin the hopes of future HPI...?

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

But to underpin the hopes of future HPI...?

I don't think many are preaching HPI just stability.

I think you should add all FTBers pre 2007 saving for an additional 2 years (the crash).

It looks like a lot have put themselves in a good position to buy (25% deposit). Reasonable deposits look to be the future.

Lotus-eater

Really2 wrote: »

I don't think many are preaching HPI just stability.

When has there ever been stability in the housing market? That sounds like Nationwide and Halifax talking in 2007, we expect some years of growth in line with inflation, in other words, prices will stagnate.
It never happens.

mitchaa

mr_fishbulb wrote: »

Whilst it may be a year or so off (depending what you believe), what do posters think the impact of interest rates returning to higher levels will have on sustainability and growth of house prices?

Very little, if any.

BOE BR will rise back upto 5% or so and IR's for fixed lending will not budge by much at all. Those on trackers will be fixing for fixed rates as soon as they start rising.

In Aug 2007 you were able to get a 100% mortgage from C&G for 6.19% with a BOE BR at 5.25%
Today in Aug 2009, you are able to get a 90% mortgage with C&G for 7.29% with a BOE BR at 0.5%

How do you work that out? Does anyone seriously think that if BOE BR rises 5 points to 5.5%, that 90% deal will rise 5points or more to 12%+

Not on your nelly;)

chrishoar

Are you all insane? How can it be few people here see the reality of the situation? The last years of boom in the housing market were an effect of inflationary pressures from the influx of cheap money from the wholesale markets, that in turn led to the banks over leveraging. The money has gone! It is no more! People were only able to buy at stupidly inflated prices because they were able to borrow that money, they cannot borrow it anymore!
On top of this 1 in 6 households in the UK now has no working adult, the true effect of this is yet to be felt. Quantitative easing will increase inflationary pressures in time. This is a perfect storm waiting to happen. I do wonder if people here are just convincing themselves because the reality of the situation is too horrible for them to comprehend....It’s really not rocket science.
You all know in your heart of hearts, when people are forced to sell, which in time they will be, then the true falls in house prices will be apparent, until then it’s just the lull before the storm.

mitchaa

We've been reading these excuses for a year now Chris, along with GDP, debt levels, rising unemployment and so on and forth.

Some people over analyse In my opinion it's as simple as what an average earning working couple can afford at 3.5x combined salaries as to where the average price should be at and have said that all along.

Just to put the latest figures into perspective...

Sept 2008 = £161,799
Aug 2009 = £160,224

So a clear 12 months and the rate of change is less than 1%. The YOY will soon go positive.

I always find this useful for comprisons...

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national.php

We are now less than 14% down from peak and as to how far we are back, we are now at Q1 2006

Harry_Powell

chrishoar wrote: »

On top of this 1 in 6 households in the UK now has no working adult, the true effect of this is yet to be felt. Quantitative easing will increase inflationary pressures in time. This is a perfect storm waiting to happen. I do wonder if people here are just convincing themselves because the reality of the situation is too horrible for them to comprehend....It’s really not rocket science.

Welcome to MSE, excellent first post. I suppose the obvious answer is that it's not likely that all of the 1 in 6 householders with no working adult are owner occupiers. Indeed many of those households will contain the long-term unemployed in council houses or rented accomodation.

Lotus-eater

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Welcome to MSE, excellent first post. I suppose the obvious answer is that it's not likely that all of the 1 in 6 householders with no working adult are owner occupiers. Indeed many of those households will contain the long-term unemployed in council houses or rented accomodation.

Good news if you have BTL then, as long as the government keep paying the rent.
Seeing as there aren't that many council houses left, compared to what there was.