Halifax +1.1% (YoY -12.1%)

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Dev, you have always been in the Bull club

I guess if anyone would know, it's you

nembot

The crash is not over, it's only just begun.

Five years nearly of double digit gains, and where are we now approx 20% drop from peak to date and things are heading back to normal.... absolute toddle.

Smells of desperation and sounds exactly the same as the reports from the last crash, which went on for a number of years - not 18 months and we have considerably further to go.

Remember, it's different this time, different and far far worse.

Must bump in twelve months, reminder and link added

zappahey

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Not really, people seem to suggest that women are being forced out to work to pay for HPI, when in reality it's the large increase of women who actually want to do something with their lives rather than baking cakes and churning out children that contributed to HPI in the first place.

Those two arguments are not mutually exclusive and I would suggest that each begets the other.

neas

is this crash cancelled time then? :O

Im not an economist graduate but can someone explain my '

'Huh?'


How can they be rising when credit was harder to get?
How can they be rising back if unemployment is rising?
How can people be so /.... dumb?

Is it simply that the banks are lending more... so now people are spending as much as they can be lent? like before the crash?.

the_ash_and_the_oak

the problem with using household income is that the makeup of the property market has changed over the last 20 years. just as a starter property would once have been a small terrace for example, now a much larger percentage of starter properties are one bed apartments, and even studios in some cases. its not a comparing like with like. previous starter properties have increasingly become second rung properties

similarly a larger percentage of first time buyers are the people that buy these things, single people, on single salaries. its not as clear cut as comparing like with like to 30 years imo.

the_ash_and_the_oak

neas wrote: »

is this crash cancelled time then? :O

Im not an economist graduate but can someone explain my '

'Huh?'


How can they be rising when credit was harder to get?
How can they be rising back if unemployment is rising?
How can people be so /.... dumb?

Is it simply that the banks are lending more... so now people are spending as much as they can be lent? like before the crash?.

1. because with much lower volumes the people who can raise the funds are making up a larger percentage of buyers - and have no problems offering closer to asking. the majority that are unable to raise funds are not simply offering a % lower because of reduced funds, they are not offering at all because of insufficient deposit. they are barred access to market. on the other side sentiment is high and trackers are low, people perceive if they don't have to sell right now, they won't, or they'll hang on with their existing price as long as it takes

2. unemployment (and fear of) similarly means on the buying side, not people offering less, but people not offering at all. on the selling side, it will filter through, but banks are pretty reluctant to respossess right now imo

Im not sure why either of these factors would make you think a crash had been cancelled

the_ash_and_the_oak

Also don't really understand why any monthly rises at this point under these circumstances would make a 'bear' think a crash was necessarily over. In 2005 and 2006 prices rose every month - did this make you feel more bullish?

ruggedtoast

I call BS on these figures. All the areas I'm looking at are still going down in price.

What metric do they use anyway?

PasturesNew

When I was younger and could never afford a house, I was annoyed that even then it was 3x single income, or 2.5x joint or ((3x1)+(1x1)).

Only having a single income you're shafted.

I was brought up in an expensive area, where wages were quite low too.

themanbearpig

Its all getting rather boring now. The downward trend has undoubtedly been changed towards an upward trend, any bear that would disagree has their head in the sand.
The high season has now come to an end, and if prices continue to rise, then this is a new precedent.

I think there is still a lot of demand (in a smaller sample size), since a lot of people failed to buy over spring/summer due to lack of supply. The only people that can actually get mortgages are high earners, and typically high earners all buy in the same areas of each city, hence prices increasing in the 'good' areas.

This time next year, I would expect prices to be lower, purely because of the economic fundamentals getting worse. But a lot of people won't be interested in waiting another year to buy.