Halifax +1.1% (YoY -12.1%)

ruggedtoast

themanbearpig wrote: »

Its all getting rather boring now. The downward trend has undoubtedly been changed towards an upward trend, any bear that would disagree has their head in the sand..

Balls. :money:

Cleaver

Y'know, one of things I've often said on here is that economic cultural shift is required to bring down, or at least stablise, house prices. I don't think it has much to do with a lot of what gets discussed on here.

Your average person on the street generally cares nothing for price to earnings ratios, 3.5 multiples, quantitive easing, shadow banking, interest rates, LTV, deposit sizes, average trend graphs, nomial earnings, average wages or any of the other hundreds of terms we discuss on here.

Your average person on the street wants a house. The love houses; to live in, to do up and to make money out of. A whole generation of people have seen lots of people get rich from houses. So, when we've seen the first major drop in houses prices for years and years, guess what? Backed by the media, government and general social opinion, lots of people go out and buy houses at the first oportunity. With whatever cash they can get. Because it's Britain, and we love property. Mum and Dad's probably lending deposits, people stretching themselves as far as possible etc. etc.

I'm not saying any of the above is right of course. In fact, it's all a bit silly. But this forum tends to analyse things in terms of the general public making rational, sensible decisions based on a tranch of financial data. This simply isn't the case. And whilst I've never claimed to have the first clue on what house prices will do (I predicted that we'd see about 17% descrease this year, if I remember a 2008 thread correctly, so that now seems well off), I have always maintained that until a tipping point is reached where people lose interest in houses, prices will pretty much go one way.

Right or wrong, I think office conversations, public opinion and chats with friends who aren't economic geeks are much better indicators than graphs, charts and earnings ratios when getting an impression of house prices and opinion.

Cleaver

themanbearpig wrote: »

This time next year, I would expect prices to be lower, purely because of the economic fundamentals getting worse. But a lot of people won't be interested in waiting another year to buy.

And that, I think, is the key. Your average joe doesn't think "hmmm, I wonder if the economic fundementals will worsen?". They think "that house I love is 20% cheaper than last year. Think I'll buy it. Reckon prices will go up long term anyway, they always do".

Not saying the average joe is right of course, but I'd wager that's what the general sentiment out there is at the moment.

ad9898_3

Cleaver wrote: »

And that, I think, is the key. Your average joe doesn't think "hmmm, I wonder if the economic fundementals will worsen?". They think "that house I love is 20% cheaper than last year. Think I'll buy it. Reckon prices will go up long term anyway, they always do".

Not saying the average joe is right of course, but I'd wager that's what the general sentiment out there is at the moment.

I'd agree with that Cleaver, the general public are thick as pigs*it.

inspector_monkfish

Right, I'm off on my jolly holidays in about 1hr, so don't forget.......


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Cleaver

ad9898 wrote: »

I'd agree with that Cleaver, the general public are thick as pigs*it.

I've thanked you because your post made me smile. And, I have no doubt, that many members of the public are thick as pigsh*t.

However, one of my friends who is the same age as me (late twenties) has just put in an offer on a house. Since about 2002 he's been saving a deposit and has been happily living at home with his parents. Clever guy, well paid job and, whilst I don't know specifics, I'm pretty sure has a very siazable deposit saved up.

So why now? Well, he's bored of living at home for one. And instead of seeing yet another year of double digit rises, he's seeing houses for considerably less than he has done for the past four or five years. So why not buy now. He'll probably live there for years anyway. He's always said that he wanted to wait until prices were a "bit cheaper", and now they are.

So, whilst this forum might shout, "bull trap, look at the real economic data, banks aren't lending, you'll see a drop next year..." at him, he'd probably just shrug and explain that he's bored of living with his parents and pleased to pick up a bargain. I wouldn't describe him as thick for making this decision either.

ess0two

Cleaver wrote: »

I've thanked you because your post made me smile. And, I have no doubt, that many members of the public are thick as pigsh*t.

However, one of my friends who is the same age as me (late twenties) has just put in an offer on a house. Since about 2002 he's been saving a deposit and has been happily living at home with his parents. Clever guy, well paid job and, whilst I don't know specifics, I'm pretty sure has a very siazable deposit saved up.

So why now? Well, he's bored of living at home for one. And instead of seeing yet another year of double digit rises, he's seeing houses for considerably less than he has done for the past four or five years. So why not buy now. He'll probably live there for years anyway. He's always said that he wanted to wait until prices were a "bit cheaper", and now they are.

So, whilst this forum might shout, "bull trap, look at the real economic data, banks aren't lending, you'll see a drop next year..." at him, he'd probably just shrug and explain that he's bored of living with his parents and pleased to pick up a bargain. I wouldn't describe him as thick for making this decision either.

Is he as thick as pigs+it then?

Too much over analysis on the issue of buying on here,what you describe is perfectly normal in civvy street.
Regardless of whats going on the average joe is getting on with it,saying that i lost £400 at Chester races on sunday,everythings a gamble to some extent in my eyes.

ad9898_3

Cleaver wrote: »

I've thanked you because your post made me smile. And, I have no doubt, that many members of the public are thick as pigsh*t.

However, one of my friends who is the same age as me (late twenties) has just put in an offer on a house. Since about 2002 he's been saving a deposit and has been happily living at home with his parents. Clever guy, well paid job and, whilst I don't know specifics, I'm pretty sure has a very siazable deposit saved up.

So why now? Well, he's bored of living at home for one. And instead of seeing yet another year of double digit rises, he's seeing houses for considerably less than he has done for the past four or five years. So why not buy now. He'll probably live there for years anyway. He's always said that he wanted to wait until prices were a "bit cheaper", and now they are.

So, whilst this forum might shout, "bull trap, look at the real economic data, banks aren't lending, you'll see a drop next year..." at him, he'd probably just shrug and explain that he's bored of living with his parents and pleased to pick up a bargain. I wouldn't describe him as thick for making this decision either.

Yep I'd go with that Cleaver, I'd buy now for cash with 30-35% off peak, or maybe a small LTV mortgage of say 10-15%, wouldn't give the thieving banks anymore than that though.

ad9898_3

ess0two wrote: »

Is he as thick as pigs+it then?

Patience my little bull:D, give me chance to write an answer, which I have now given.

Cleaver

ad9898 wrote: »

Yep I'd go with that Cleaver, I'd buy now for cash with 30-35% off peak, or maybe a small LTV mortgage of say 10-15%, wouldn't give the thieving banks anymore than that though.

And that's great Ad. You've deemed that you want to almost buy outright because you want to own the house quickly and you've inferred that you don't want to deal with banks. All sounds sensible to me.

But remember that you're the minority. Most people will be happy with a 15-20% discount off peak ("houses? cheaper now than 3 or 4 years ago? I'll have that, they always go up generally anyway") and will see owing banks a lot of money as a very normal thing to do.

And it's that majority that sway things and influence the figures we love looking over.

On another note, the paper I'm trying to write for work is not getting done, but take that as compliment to your debating skills Ad.